In 2014, difficult times began in Ukraine. A change of power took place in Kiev, which caused a lack of understanding among the residents of Crimea and Donbass. If Crimea peacefully came under the jurisdiction of Russia, then an armed confrontation took place in Donbass, which continues to this day. The fate of the inhabitants of this region worries many, both in their homeland and in neighboring countries. Predictions about Donbass for 2020 can answer the question: What awaits this region in the near future?
In our unpredictable time, some people stopped believing in politicians, and turned their eyes towards those who more than once accurately predicted the further course of events. We are talking about famous psychics who never cease to predict the future. We think that the new predictions for 2020 will be of interest to the readers of our website.
Pavel Globa
This psychic gained incredible popularity back in Soviet times. Since then, he has more than once successfully predicted many events in Russia and abroad. Of course, not all people believe in these kinds of predictions. They believe that all that has come true is a coincidence of facts. Although, if you analyze the number of coincident events, it turns out that there are about 85% of them and this cannot be called an accident.
As for Ukraine, Globa back in 2009 predicted the collapse of this state into three independent regions:
- the western part, which will eventually sink into hatred towards all surrounding countries;
- Crimea, which is already integrated into Russia;
- the eastern region of Ukraine, which over time will also become part of the Russian Federation.
According to the psychic, peace in Donbass will come only when a leader appears in Ukraine who will convince all Ukrainians of the futility of a policy directed against the inhabitants of the Donetsk region and Russia.
The soothsayer also noted that rapprochement with America will give the Ukrainian people nothing. The impoverishment and plunder of the country will continue in 2020. Military tensions on the contact line will continue. Ordinary people on both sides of the conflict will suffer from this.
The resolution of the armed confrontation will end when the opposing sides sit down at the negotiating table and agree on peace. And most importantly, they will begin to fulfill the terms of the truce. According to the psychic, this will not pass soon, but for now the inhabitants of Donbass and Ukraine will continue to experience the hardships of the war, and the oligarchs will profit from the misfortune of ordinary people.
At the same time, P. Globa predicted in ten years the formation of a strong Slavic state, which will include:
- Russia;
- Belarus;
- Ukraine.
Vera Lyon
The astrological forecast for Donbass was also made by the Kazakh clairvoyant, who quite recently amazed everyone with her insight. It is not for nothing that the name has already been assigned to her - the Kazakh Vanga. According to her forecasts, the situation in Ukraine will remain tense.
She saw this country in the form of a dead tree, which, in spite of everything, is beginning to revive. Relations with Russia in 2020 will continue to deteriorate. The soothsayer did not rule out the desire of some regions to secede from Ukraine. The conflict in the country will continue for several more years.
Olga the witch
This soothsayer is sure that the Ukrainian authorities are misleading their own people when they say that the reason for the existing difficulties is the war in the east of the country. In fact, the current government continues to rob its people. Having climbed the pedestal of power, politicians deceive their people and are interested in continuing the war. Indeed, it is easier to fish in troubled waters. The advice from the witch Olga is that the people themselves should take power into their own hands and keep old politicians out of the imperious Olympus. It is necessary not to miss the "birth" of a new leader who can lead the country out of the crisis.
Russia has suffered no less from the recent events in Ukraine, but it will not rush to sit down at the negotiating table. Until the last moment she will try to bargain for more acceptable conditions for herself. According to the medium, peace in Donbass will come when new political forces win in the two countries, who will understand that it is much more profitable to live in peace than to fight.
Julia Wang
This well-known soothsayer from Latvia also answered the question of what will happen to Donbass in 2020. Her forecast is not optimistic. She is confident that internal political problems await Europe, so she will not care about the situation in Donbass. This fact can untie the hands of Russia, which will try, under the guise of helping the Ukrainian people, to make an armed invasion of the territory of Donbass. According to the soothsayer, Donbass will never become a part of Ukraine, like Crimea. Julia believes that the country will fall apart, which will go to different states. At the same time, the psychic is sure that such a fate will be the best way out for the country, and over time it will begin to rise from the ashes. The patriotic attitude of the Ukrainian population will help it overcome the most difficult situations in which it will find itself.
Vasilisa Yaroslavskaya
The forecast of this psychic somewhat encourages the expectations of the Ukrainian people. Vasilisa believes that after a new leader and parliament is elected in Kiev, changes for the better will begin in the east of the country. LPR and DPR will remain part of Ukraine with broader powers. The new head of state will take a pro-Russian position and the Russian Federation will finally be able to deal with internal problems.
The restoration of Donbass will require a lot of money, where the Ukraine psychic did not specify where it will take. Most quickly, the people of Ukraine will continue to solve their problems on their own.
Predictions from the strongest psychics for Ukraine
An interview with Andrey Babitsky given to one of the oldest and most respected print media in the Czech Republic, Lidovky.cz. Babitsky's answers are just a shock for the "enlightened" West! And this is a verdict, which may not come into effect soon, but is inevitable, like the sunrise after a prolonged Ukrainian night.
This is the opinion of the Russian war correspondent Andrei Babitsky, a recent employee of Radio Free Europe. In Russia, according to him, exemplary democracy reigns.
After 16 years in Prague, Russia's most famous war correspondent, Andrei Babitsky, declares, “Those were wasted years,” and returns to the war. In the Ukrainian Donbass, among the pro-Russian separatists, Babitsky, as he himself claims, is finally happy. But he gave an interview to the newspaper Lidové noviny in the Czech Republic, where he recently applied for an extension of his residence permit.
Petra Prokhazkova: Why do you want to live in Prague if Western civilization is so alien to you?
Andrei Babitsky: My family is used to Prague. I have to come to them, so my reasons are purely practical. Those 16 years that I spent in Prague, I consider lost. I found myself in a strange environment for myself. And in Donbass, on the contrary, there are people around me who I understand, and there I live a full life.
- What do you think caused the explosion of violence in eastern Ukraine?
Few remember that in 2014, Maidan bandits forced the Verkhovna Rada to repeal the law on regional languages. It was a blow to the Russian language. And people in Donbass stood up to defend their language.
But then the situation was somewhat different. While this problem was only discussed in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Russian state television had already argued that everyone who spoke Russian in Ukraine would be persecuted.
The Ukrainians canceled Russian as an official language, and then changed their mind, but for three days people were in a state of uncertainty. In addition, you do not know what has happened there since the collapse of the USSR. Donbass had to bow to Ukrainian nationalism. The Ukrainians were slowly but surely pushing Russian culture and language out of the public space. And then they crossed all sorts of boundaries. After all, language is the main cultural wealth. For example, training in all universities was conducted only in Ukrainian ...
Probably because they are located in Ukraine. Doesn't the fact that Russians living outside Russia never learn the local language of the country where they have lived for decades about imperial arrogance?
This is not true. Russians in Donbass speak Ukrainian. But there are several variants of Ukrainian: now they are promoting the Galich form, which is close to Polish and is an invented artificial language. This is not the language in which Shevchenko wrote, but the creation of Ukrainian nationalists.
- Will you justify the annexation of Crimea by protecting Russian culture?
Crimea's secession from Ukraine is a consequence of attacks on the Russian language and a coup d'etat in Ukraine. The Ukrainians themselves are to blame for this. After all, Crimea remained a part of Ukraine for a long time, and although the Crimeans themselves were not delighted with this, everyone tolerated it. And only Maidan became a starting shot, a springboard that helped the Crimean Russians to secede from the Ukrainian state and return to Russia. Kiev had to calculate that Crimea would oppose Ukrainian nationalism. Its radical forms already bear the character of Nazism. I don’t understand why Europe doesn’t notice this.
“But Ukrainian nationalism is rather a marginal phenomenon. And it's hard for you to judge if you don't travel to Ukraine, with the exception of Donbass ...
In fact, Ukraine, given its ethnic composition, is a smaller version of Russia. That is why it should be organized according to the same principles that Russia has chosen for its administration. In Russia, each ethnic group has its own special rights.
- Aren't your views too idealistic? In Russia, no matter what republic they live in, they speak Russian and receive education in Russian. The Ukrainians want the same ...
You see, in Crimea all languages: Russian, Ukrainian, Tatar are equal. This is how we solve this problem in Russia. We do not have a Russification policy.
- When you worked for American radio in Chechnya, you had a different opinion and made reports about the extermination of the Chechen people ...
I have always talked about the unacceptable means by which the war was fought. And I continue to insist on this. It was a disproportionate war, but it was not waged against the Chechens as a people. And in Ukraine, a systematic extermination of ethnic groups is underway, which the Ukrainians do not consider to be the original. Interestingly, there are not only Ukrainians among Ukrainian nationalists. There are Jews, Romanians, and even Russians. But they call themselves Ukrainians in order to get all civil rights. Unlike the rest!
- You are only talking about a small group of Ukrainian nationalists. But the Maidan was a movement of Ukrainian citizens, not radicals ...
Maidan was a coup d'état.
- Do you deny the right of citizens to revolt?
I don’t deny it, but it should not be carried out under nationalist slogans. At one point, the Nazis privatized the energy of the Maidan, and now the whole uprising can be thrown into the trash.
Donbass is not the only one to become part of Russia
- You saw the Maidan through the prism of Russian television, but you know Donbass personally. What would you recommend Kiev to do with this territory?
Nothing. Donbass decides everything and will decide for itself. He has already made a historic choice in favor of his identity and historical culture. How specific problems will be solved is, of course, important, but not essential. Donbass already exists as a part of the Russian land, as a part of Russian history. However, the prospects are not very bright - war and poverty. Chaos.
- Will the conflict in Donbass turn into a frozen one, like in Transnistria?
No. Donbass, unlike Transnistria, has a common border with Russia. It can be supplied from Russia and the Russian market is open to it. Eventually Donbass will one day become an integral part of Russia. And not only him. As people in Ukraine "come to their senses", more and more Ukrainian regions will join Russia.
- Voluntarily?
You need to create a kind of union. Nobody from Russia will come to take away by force the land on which crazy people live. Because their treatment (without guarantees of success) will cost a lot of money and effort. They can still resist, and then a guerrilla war will begin, but Russia does not need this. Let them cool down, come to their senses, think, and then admit their guilt, punish the guilty, and then a conversation about the form of a contract or partnership can already begin.
- It seems that before your forecast comes true, Ukraine will join the European Union ...
I cannot imagine that a state with clearly racist features would become part of the European space. In addition, it is important what will happen to the EU itself, and not whether or not a poor, aggressive and distraught country with a fanatically vile culture of political life, corrupt and unstable will join it.
- I even met some Russians who took up arms to defend Ukraine ...
In Kiev, you will also find Russians who look at Ukrainian nationalists with contempt, but at the same time do not want to be part of Russia, because they do not consider it a democratic country. There are plenty of such people, but they are very stupid people.
- Stupid or smart, but this is their opinion ...
Any opinion has the right to exist, and in this sense Russia can serve as an example for the entire post-Soviet space. In Russia, everyone can freely speak whatever they want - even the most offensive words addressed to the president ...
- When I watch Russian TV channels, I get the opposite impression ...
The educated Russian public is turning to the Internet. For her, television ceased to exist. This is not about the majority of Russians, but about the most educated part, which moves history and formulates public opinion.
- But does television not influence precisely that voting majority, which then elects the president and parliament?
Thank God. Because we see what happens when things are different. Maidan! A coup that caused the disappointment of a huge number of people.
- I do not think that the media in Russia organized a coup d'état. What if the elections were free, alternative?
25 years have passed since the collapse of the USSR. In such a short time, organic mechanisms of democratic elections have simply not yet been able to form in Russia. Russia has thrown itself into the sea of freedom, and now it is trying to cope with it.
- However, Russia, instead of nurturing these free mechanisms, tramples into the ground what has managed to ascend ...
I do not think so. Russia is a freer country than the Baltic states or Ukraine. Russia can serve as an example for most of the post-Soviet republics.
- Your position has undergone significant changes over the past 15 years. You fled to the Czech Republic from the regime of Vladimir Putin, who most likely wanted to kill you. You worked for American radio, lived in abundance in Prague. Has everything changed now?
My opinion began to change when I started writing about Georgia and saw that President Saakashvili was a tyrant who created a police regime. And my colleagues on Radio Liberty praised Georgia as an example of democracy. Then there was Crimea, and with it came the end of my radio career. I was happy. I was bound by the walls of this ghetto, which was called Radio Liberty. Now that I work for the Russian media, I am free.
- Are you saying that there is a civil war going on in Ukraine? And Russia does not interfere in it?
Of course it interferes. Russia finances and supplies Donbass. Salaries, social benefits, money - all this is paid by Moscow. It has taken over about 80% of all costs and, thus, keeps about five million people afloat who live in the Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics. In addition, Russia, of course, supplies the Donetsk and Luhansk armed forces with weapons and ammunition, and also sends its military instructors. Russia is helping to create the army of the DPR and LPR. But there is no Russian army on the battlefield. I think such actions by Moscow are correct. And I would even welcome it if she expanded her presence. This is the Russian land.
- And the agreements that Russia signed in the 90s of the last century, and which guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity, no longer have any effect?
Ukraine destroyed itself. This state was destroyed by a coup d'etat. All previously signed agreements become invalid. Today Ukraine is moving from the fragile stability of a quasi-state to the stage when the country is divided into gangster groups. Donbass opposed this, and now it was surrounded by a sea of madness. Ukrainians should have their brains right, but there are no effective tools for this.
- That is, the civilized world is mistaken, considering Russia an aggressor?
For many decades, your civilized world has lived in deceitful notions. In the post-Soviet space, you have chosen local nationalist regimes as your allies, which are anti-democratic in their essence. But for you they are a guarantee of a coalition against Russia. Because the civilized world is still afraid of Russia, it still considers it an enemy.
- Does this surprise you after the historical experience that we received?
Ukrainian Nazi actions cannot be justified by anything - not even negative historical experience.
In the 90s, he was one of the best war reporters in the post-Soviet space. Since 1989 he has worked for the American Radio Free Europe. He became famous after a series of reports from Chechnya, in which he criticized the brutality of the Russian army. In 2000 he was arrested by the Russian military. Under still unclear circumstances, he managed to escape. Then Russian President Putin called him a traitor to the Motherland. Because of fears for the life of the family, Babitsky moved to Prague. In 2014, he supported Putin during the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea. From Radio Free Europe, he left for Donbass.
I would also like to appeal to those whose relatives are now fighting against the LPNR. The collapse of Ukraine, the integration of first Donbass into Russia, and then, over time, several more regions - the issue has been resolved. Decided at a much higher level than the domestic one. The war that your relatives are waging against us no longer pursues geopolitical goals, in which you would still be in the red. The war now is just a noise cover for the machinations of your people's Ukrainian government, which you chose on the Maidan. Just so that there would be a holiday in Kiev, someone must die in the Donbass. Lately, dear Ukrainians, holidays in Kiev cost on average a dozen of your relatives who were killed and several dozen were wounded. Think about the fact that your own relatives are dying only so that you yourself would plunge into even more gloomy poverty "
And at the end of this, good news from Transcarpathia.
After four years of war and the still unresolved status of the DPR and LPR, the opinion is often heard that Russia dragged Donbass into a confrontation with the Kiev regime and betrayed it (Donbass). Before drawing such conclusions, it is necessary to understand what happened in 2014 in this territory and why Russia did this.
Photo: http://www.globallookpress.com
When analyzing those events, one should not forget that one of the strategic tasks of the United States in organizing the coup in Ukraine was to draw Russia into a direct armed conflict and destabilize the situation on the Russian borders. In this regard, Russia's position in the Ukrainian crisis should be viewed as one of the elements of the global confrontation with the United States.
The most widespread version is that all events in the South-East and military actions in Donbass were planned and organized by Russia. All this, of course, is not true, I was a direct participant in the events, and even then it was clear how difficult and ambiguous the confrontation was unfolding in the South-East. Until August 2014, Russia practically did not intervene in the events in Ukraine (except for Crimea) and opposed the creation of the DPR and LPR.
Speaking about Russia's attitude to Donbass in the Ukrainian conflict, it should be emphasized right away that he did not solve any strategic tasks for Russia. Therefore, the question of the rejection of Donbass from Ukraine could not arise in principle.
Having taken Crimea, Russia has solved its strategic task of returning as a global player in the Black and Mediterranean Seas and in the Middle East. After solving the problem of Crimea, Russia took steps to prevent a military conflict on its borders. The subsequent events in the South-East only made this task more difficult.
Popular protests against the Kiev putsch in the spring of 2014 in Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk, Crimea and Odessa were spontaneous and disorganized. At the same time, nowhere was the question of secession from Ukraine raised. In Crimea, immediately after the coup in Kiev, just a few days later, Russia intervened.
She intervened quickly and efficiently. Except for Crimea, Russia (as a state, not a group of volunteers) practically did not intervene anywhere until August 14. Everything was limited to dramatic media coverage of the Ukrainian crisis, the outbreak of war, and using it to divert attention from Crimea.
In Donbass, popular protests at the end of March intercepted the Donetsk oligarchic structures and brought them under their influence for bargaining and collusion with the putschists. They immediately, against the will of the Kremlin, announced the creation of the DPR and LPR and accepted an appeal to Russia with a request to send Russian troops to Donbas.
People sincerely believed the pseudo-leaders, believed that everything would happen, as in the Crimea. They massively went to a referendum and supported the secession from Ukraine. Russia, naturally, did not react in any way, it was not included in its plans.
Unexpectedly for the Donetsk oligarchs and the Kremlin, Strelkov intervened. He organized armed resistance in Slavyansk and confused everyone's cards. Deliberately (or he was used "blindly"), he contributed to the outbreak of war. Then, together with Borodai, having seized power in the DPR from the oligarchs, he led the war in Donetsk and Lugansk. The Ukrainian army threw forces into the Donbass, Russia did not provide effective assistance, and the fate of the republics was a foregone conclusion.
The situation was becoming catastrophic, the loss of Donbass led to a serious defeat for Russia in the global confrontation with the United States, the complete subordination of Ukraine to the interests of the West and the establishment of mass terror in Donbass. Non-intervention was fraught with serious consequences. Russia was faced with the task of preventing the complete surrender of Donbass and not getting involved in the war.
Under the pressure of circumstances, it was then decided to inflict a crushing defeat on the Ukrainian army, force Kiev to peace and freeze the conflict. The "Voentorg" started working at full power, Strelkov's team was "gently" removed from Donbass, and people loyal to the Kremlin were brought to power.
Russia had to intervene not to liberate Donbass, but to address its strategic goals. These tasks were successfully completed, the reinforced and armed militia defeated the Ukrainian army, the Minsk agreements were born, which led not to peace, but to the freezing of the military conflict. Russia did not manage to completely get away from the war; it had to indirectly get involved in it to end active hostilities.
Thus, the emergence of the DPR and LPR was provoked not by the actions of Russia, but by the Ukrainian regime, which, with the support of the West, organized a coup d'état and started a civil war in Donbass. The United States managed to unleash a military conflict in Ukraine and indirectly drag Russia into it. Russia did not allow the completion of the process of Ukraine's integration into Euro-Atlantic structures and completely suppress the resistance of the South-East.
Everyone hoped that Russia would do the same with the Donbass as with the Crimea. This did not happen, and there are objective reasons for this. The splinter of Donbass is not Crimea, and it did not solve any of the strategic tasks of Russia. And from an economic point of view, it was not important for Russia. The production cycle of his enterprises is tied to the Donetsk-Kryvyi Rih basin, and due to the blockade of Ukraine, it was broken. In addition, the entry of Donbass into the economic space of Russia turned out to be blocked. Western sanctions have prevented many Russian firms from interacting with Donbass.
From a political point of view, Donbass has seriously complicated the international position of Russia, and it has incurred considerable political and economic costs. Russia has always had its own interests in the West, and it could not afford to break off relations with them because of the Donbass.
In addition, the republics control less than 20 thousand out of half a million square kilometers. This is a drop in the ocean. And it was not part of Russia's plans to bring the essentially Russian population out of the legal framework of Ukraine.
Naturally, for these reasons, a small part of Donbass could not be included in Russia. Russia did not set such goals for itself, and there were no political and economic prerequisites for this.
For Russia, something else was fundamentally important: that the insurgent Donbass created insurmountable political and military problems for the Nazi regime of Ukraine, hindering its desire to integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures. Donbass has become a strategic springboard for pressure on Ukraine and one of the trump cards in negotiations with the West.
Russia has always supported Donbass, not really advertising it. She provided him with military advisers, the supply of weapons, equipment, vehicles, gas and fuel supplies, the introduction of the Russian ruble as the local currency, subsidizing social spending of the republics and many other expenses that are simply not talked about. The republics survived and live mainly and only thanks to the help of Russia.
All statements that Russia abandoned Donbass do not stand up to scrutiny. For many reasons. First, the Donbass without Russia's help in August 2014 would have probably been captured by the Ukrainian army and cleared of the militia. Only Russian intervention saved him from defeat.
Secondly, without the economic support of Russia and in the conditions of the blockade of Ukraine, it would not have been able to exist and provide the minimum needs of the population, without which there would have long been a humanitarian catastrophe there.
Third, without Russia's support at the international level, the creation of the Normandy Four and the Minsk Agreements, it would have been impossible to defend the status of the unrecognized republics. On the one hand, no one recognized them, but on the other, they are participants in the Minsk talks with the participation of international mediators.
Donbass, of course, is not indifferent to Russia, since there is a Russian-minded population living there, proving their right to be a part of Russian civilization. Russia has not abandoned him and will not abandon him in any situation.
The Russophobic state of Ukraine in its current form does not suit Russia in any way, and Russia, naturally, will take steps to eliminate the ruling regime there. It will no longer be possible to come to an agreement with him peacefully, so there is a need to resolve the future of Ukraine in a different way. For this, Donbass may be required as a springboard, where the future power of the new Ukraine will be formed, capable of freeing it from the occupying Nazi regime.
Since the spring of 2014, information has been received from the fronts of Novorossiya almost every day about the dead and wounded on both sides. Despite the ceasefire, the Minsk agreements, despite the OSCE mission working here, the shootings do not stop for a day. Both we and the world began to get used to these deaths, the passions that once raged, gradually subsided.
Recently, a discussion has flared up again about how Russia should deal with the unrecognized Donetsk republics. Even very qualified experts are perplexed why the top Russian leadership hesitates and does not dare to take the step that all Russian people have long awaited from them: they will not accept the DPR / LPR into the Russian Federation - by analogy with Crimea.
According to Mikhail Remizov, President of the Institute for National Strategy, the scenario of the return of Donbass to Ukraine implied by the Minsk Protocol is not feasible. And he offers an alternative option: to distribute Russian passports.
“Citizens of the DPR and LPR are outside any legal field. Even in Russia, it is much more difficult for them to legalize than other Ukrainian citizens, because Russia does not recognize the papers of the DPR and LPR, and these people cannot receive Ukrainian papers. This is direct legal discrimination against the residents of Donbass, and this problem must be addressed as a purely humanitarian one.
In this sense, the granting of Russian citizenship to the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk will be an impeccable humanitarian gesture from an international legal point of view. Russia, even within the framework of the Minsk agreements, has every right to do so. "
Political scientist and writer Vadim Samodurov agrees with Mikhail Remizov. He also thinks that it is necessary “to start implementing the idea, which has already been repeatedly expressed, about distributing Russian passports to residents of the DPR and LPR. They should not be in a restrained position on the territory of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it turns out that it is easier for a citizen with a Ukrainian passport to get a job than for a citizen with a passport of the republics. "
Vadim Samodurov is completely disappointed with the Minsk agreements.
“Soon the Minsk agreements will become useless. They will even cease to be rhetorically addressed to them, wishing to urge Ukraine to the peace process. Moreover, regardless of whether the new forces will win the elections in France and the Federal Republic of Germany this year or not. "
Both experts proceed primarily from humanitarian considerations. Indeed, the residents of the Donbass republics have a hard time. And it's not just the daily shelling, like the one in Avdiivka - they only add black paint. The main thing that the DPR and LPR lack is a legal status, without which it is difficult to establish economic life in the region, trade, and, therefore, provide socially active people with work, and old people with pensions.
Therefore, the idea of universal certification of Donbass residents is literally in the air. Even in official Russian circles. For example, Leonid Kalashnikov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, said this at a meeting in the State Duma with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“In the South-East of Ukraine, we must follow the path that we followed in some of the now independent states or, for example, in conflict, where the majority has Russian citizenship. To do this, we need to start working with closed methods, and here we, Sergey Viktorovich, are counting, among other things, on your help and support, because there really is trouble. People shout and say that tomorrow we will be alone again. "
But the Kremlin hesitates, although everything seems to be obvious. And the main question: why were the Crimean people lucky, but the Donetsk people not? In order to answer this question, one will have to recall the history of such conflicts.
Among the republics recognized by Russia, not only Crimea (it existed as an independent state for several hours, which was enough to apply on its behalf with a request to join the Russian Federation, which was satisfied), but also Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But Russia does not recognize Transnistria as an independent entity. And there is a good reason for that.
The fact is that Crimea is still listed as a separate section in the Ukrainian constitution, just as Abkhazia and South Ossetia are in the Georgian one. That is, in the legal sense, all three republics have always had a special status as part of the states they were part of. So, they were recognized by the United Nations Organization.
But Transnistria, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are unknown as subjects of UN international law. In the situation with Crimea, we have an invulnerable legal position, but if we recognize the independence of the DPR / LPR, and even more so we satisfy the request of their residents and include the territories in the Russian Federation, then such a step will be an obvious annexation. Roughly speaking, we would cut off a piece of Ukrainian territory.
By the way, it is precisely this option that we are continually pushed by bosom enemies both from the Western capitals and from our own quasi-patriotic opposition, and Petro Poroshenko at one time directly offered to take the Donbass to Vladimir Putin. However, such a “gift” is a ticking time bomb; we would be forever labeled as a country that is wiping its feet on international law.
They may object to me: the residents of Transnistria have Russian citizenship, although the PMR itself is not recognized by anyone, including Russia. Right. But certification in this unrecognized republic took place even during the collapse of the USSR, when people had the right to choose which Soviet republic they would like to become citizens of. The residents of Donbass, let me remind you, in 1991 voted for life in independent Ukraine and received her passports.
The events of recent years have shown that their decision was a mistake that now needs to be corrected. However, the radical method offered by our hotheads is hardly suitable for this. Including very authoritative ones.
It is no coincidence that the Minsk Agreements stipulate that Ukraine is obliged to give Donbass a special status and amend its constitution accordingly. The new constitution with clearly marked DPR / LPR borders will be sent to the UN, and the international community will finally learn that there are two republics in Ukraine, and not just regions with separatist sentiments that exist in almost every EU country, and now there are in the USA. Then their residents will have the right to hold referendums on their territories in the presence of international observers, and their results will have to be recognized by the international community. This is the only option in which the DPR / LPR can subsequently become part of the Russian Federation, if they want. And if we don't mind, of course.
Those who criticize the Minsk agreements are largely right - there is no mechanism to force Ukraine to comply with them point by point. Kiev is well aware that the special status of Donbass, introduced into the constitution, will lead not only to the republics gaining full-fledged independence, but also, most likely, to centrifugal phenomena in other regions. That is why the hawks are so fiercely opposed to Minsk-2, they come up with all sorts of reasons not to fulfill their obligations, they interpret the provisions of the document that has the status of a UN Security Council resolution in a very childish way.
And yet, the Minsk agreements remain the main and only document with which it is possible to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Yes, the Maidan authorities torpedo them, perhaps rallying themselves or waiting for the cards in the geopolitical game to fall in their favor. Although, judging by the latest trends, there will no longer be a successful alignment.
However, we also do not force events, realizing that the leader has already changed in the United States, and we still have to build relations with him, including in Ukraine, and in France, perhaps an adequate president will soon come to power, with whom more can be achieved in Norman. format. In geopolitics, it is generally not customary to rush.
Moscow intends to solve the problem of Donbass not alone, as Washington recently solved all over the world, but together with the permanent members of the UN Security Council. First of all, with Germany, France and the United States.
In the meantime, we, unfortunately, bear the burden of maintaining the DPR / LPR, because otherwise a humanitarian catastrophe will indeed occur there. But if the republics were suddenly admitted to the Russian Federation, the costs would increase by an order of magnitude. In the end, Ukraine gradually began to pay pensions and salaries to Donetsk residents. Although reluctantly, and not in full.
The Kremlin does not want to commit a gross violation of international law, no matter how it is pushed to a rash step from all sides. Until now, Russia remains almost the only country in the world that has not deviated one iota from the UN Charter - not in Syria, not in Ukraine, not in Moldova, not in Georgia. And it is unlikely to ever back down.
