The current crisis in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran began on Saturday, January 2, when Riyadh executed the influential Shiite preacher Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr and in response, an angry mob set fire to the Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran. After that, the Saudis announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran, and Bahrain and Sudan followed their example. But the events of this week were a spark that hit the dry pile of wood. Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a series of proxy wars, vying with each other for influence in the Middle East. This is not a full-fledged hot war, or even a war between Sunnis and Shiites, although both sides are trying to use ideological affiliation as a recruiting tool. Rather, it is a power struggle, very reminiscent of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Why are Saudi Arabia and Iran fighting each other? First, they believe that they are regional powers and that, since the 19th century, global and regional powers must necessarily have their own spheres of influence and rule over smaller states. Second, the fragile balance of power between the two states was upset. The first blow came when the Bush administration overthrew the Sunni regime in Iraq, which was replaced by a pro-Iranian religious Shiite regime, which in many important ways alienated Iraq from Saudi Arabia and brought it closer to Iran. The balance of power has been further disrupted by the revolutions in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria that began in 2011. All these events have led to the fact that Riyadh and Tehran have lost the ability to maintain the status quo, and now the advantage can be on one side or on the other, when the smoke clears. Both sides want to be on top when that day finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia and Iran had already severed diplomatic relations - this happened in the 1990s - but they were restored in 1997 after winning the presidential elections in Iran. Mohammad Khatami... According to many analysts, the likelihood that these countries will enter a real war with each other is extremely small. The United States provides Saudi Arabia, which produces about 11% of the world's oil every day, a "safety umbrella" and will never accept an Iranian attack. Even if the United States were not involved, such a conflict is a highly unlikely scenario. Iran is a country with a population of 78 million and an experienced army of 500,000, which also has 800,000 volunteers from the paramilitary Basij organization. However, a significant part of its military resources are now tied to Syria. Saudi Arabia is a country with a population of 17-20 million and an inexperienced army of barely more than 200,000 troops. According to the American military doctrine, it makes sense to launch an attack only when the numerical superiority is 3 to 1. In accordance with this principle, Saudi Arabia most likely will not start a military campaign against Iran. Moreover, there is no sign that Iran wants to start a hot war.
These two states do not have common borders. They have almost no navy, and while Saudi Arabia has a pretty strong air force, Iran's air force is just a joke. As oil producing countries, economically, Saudi Arabia and Iran will be hit hard if the fighting gets out of hand. Even during the war between Iran and Iraq in 1980-1988, these two states rarely hit each other's oil production facilities, but the price of oil still fell from $ 40 to $ 10 per barrel.
In fact, Iran and Saudi Arabia want to shape their geopolitical security environment, clearly outlining the spheres of influence where the adversary is prohibited from entering. Just as, under the Monroe Doctrine, the United States wanted to intimidate the Soviet Union over missiles in Cuba in 1962, Saudi Arabia now believes it is being threatened by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. The Saudis either misrepresent their motives in Yemen, or they completely misunderstand their Shiite Zeidis (who have little attachment to Iran's hierarchical Shi'ism and who are even closer to Sunnis in some respects). The Saudis regard the Houthis as intermediaries for Iran, although there is no strong evidence that Iran is providing them with any assistance.
Just as last year's political collapse in Yemen and the Houthi takeover of Sana'a forced Saudi Arabia to intervene, the prospect of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria forced Iran to send aid and troops to Damascus. Tehran has also convinced the Lebanese group Hezbollah to side with Assad, maintaining the land corridor through which Iran supplies weapons to its Lebanese client. Iranian investments in Syria have nothing to do with Syrian Shiism. Iran's allies in Syria are a gathering of Christians and Sunni secularists, as well as Alawites, who have a Gnostic and mythological approach to religion that is as close to Iranian Shiism as theosophy is close to the episcopal system of church government. Moreover, the Alawites who run the Baathist regime in Syria are atheists.
Saudi Arabia saw a good opportunity to topple Iranian ally in Damascus when the 2011 revolution escalated into civil war, and Riyadh supports conservative Salafi fundamentalists because they have the most reasons to end the Baathist regime and because they have proven to be the best. by militants and recruiters. But if Saudi Arabia had the opportunity to find more effective secular allies, they would most likely be happy to take advantage of it. The main thing for King Salman is to overthrow Assad because he slaughtered the Sunni conservatives in small towns and villages and because he is an ally of Iran.
In addition to striving to delineate exclusive spheres of influence, Iran and Saudi Arabia have internal security issues for which they blame each other. 15% of Saudis are Shiites, and most of them live in the Eastern Province, constantly subjected to humiliation and discrimination. This province is of great strategic importance because there are Saudi oil fields. Saudi Shiites are Arabs, not Iranians, and most of them follow the teachings of the Grand Ayatollah of Iraq Ali Sistani... But Riyadh views any civil disobedience of the kingdom's Shiites as a result of Iran's incitement. Therefore, they considered Sheikh al-Nimr to be an Iranian secret agent. The Saudis did not provide any evidence of his guilt (that he was involved in instigating an uprising or preparing terrorist attacks). They failed to prove that al-Nimr killed or wanted to kill anyone. However, in the Eastern Province, riots broke out among young Saudi Shiites, who believed that they were living under the yoke of a kind of religious analogue of the laws of Jim Crow, and al-Nimr became a sacrificial lamb who paid the price for these riots. Meanwhile, at least 8% of Iranians are Sunnis, and Iran fears that Israel or Saudi Arabia could provoke unrest in these communities.
For obvious reasons, foreign observers often view this rivalry as an interfaith struggle until they get to the details and this version starts to fall apart. Saudi Arabia has always had a pragmatic foreign policy, and it does not always side with the Sunni religious movements. Riyadh supported the nationalist Egyptian officer corps in their coup d'état, fueled by massive popular support from the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood party in the summer of 2013. Saudi Arabia supports the secular Palestine Liberation Organization, which opposes the Sunni fundamentalist movement Hamas. She supports the nationalists surrounding the president Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Yemen. She supports a secular Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri in Lebanon. The view that Saudi Arabia's foreign policy is always aimed at imposing a fundamentalist religious government on its Sunni neighbors is contrary to the facts.
It has been some time since the majority of Iranian high-ranking officials have seriously assimilated the official ideology of their country - the ideology of Khomeinism, which is based on the premise that Shia society should be governed by Shiite spiritual leaders. However, Iran has failed to convince other countries in the region of the correctness of its principles. Most Lebanese Shiites are oriented towards secularism, and if they vote for the pro-Iranian party-group Hezbollah, it is only because, in their opinion, it can protect them from Israel and Sunni radicals. Iraqi religious authorities in the southern Iraqi city of Najaf - the Vatican of Arab Shiism - have rejected Khomeinism and supported democratic elections. Most Shiites in Pakistan and the Gulf countries follow the teachings of Ayatollah Sistani, not Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. Iran not only has no ideologically close states in the region, it quite often also supports the Sunnis. Iran has excellent relations with Tajik Sunnis and Uzbeks in Afghanistan, as well as perhaps even some kind of ties with the Taliban. Despite strained relations between Sunni fundamentalist Hamas and Shiite Iran over the past three years, Iran has long supported it and is apparently ready to do it again.
There are countries in the Middle East that Saudi Arabia and Iran have to share. Oman tries to be an honest broker. Iraq has refused to sever ties with Saudi Arabia, despite demonstrations against the execution of Sheikh al-Nimr. Dubai maintains good relations with both countries. Lebanon is also trying not to quarrel with Iran and Saudi Arabia, although it has been leaning more towards Iran lately because Lebanese Shiites, Christians and secular Sunnis fear the Sunni Salafis supported by the Saudis.
Oman and Iraq have announced their readiness to try to reconcile them, and, possibly as a result of a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, General Mohsen Kazemeini, the commander of the Tehran unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, called the attack A "fully organized" step, in which, according to him, the officials of the Islamic Republic were not at all involved. The failure of the Iranian authorities to defend the embassy or quickly put out the fire has led Riyadh to speculate that the attack was orchestrated by the government.
One of the main problems here is over-ambition. Neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia is now ready to act as regional powers with exclusive spheres of influence. The population of Saudi Arabia is too small for that, and Iran is too poor. Moreover, their ideologies are not too close to their neighbors. That is why the Saudi war in Yemen is turning into a quagmire, and Iran has to ask Russia to come to the aid of Assad in Syria. The wars in Syria and Yemen will end quickly if a formula is found for the division of power between the belligerents so that neither Tehran nor Riyadh is completely excluded from the peace process. Neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia may be happy about the absence of a complete victory, but long wars are too destructive and involve excessive losses.
Saudi Arabian Armed Forces(Royal Saudi Armed Forces) has 124.5 thousand troops and includes ground forces (ground forces, army), air forces, air defense forces, navy and rocket forces. In addition, there are 100,000 strong ground forces of the National Guard (NG). The armed forces are led by the king, who is the supreme commander in chief. He directs them through the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Military Inspectorate and the Ministry of the National Guard.
The armed forces of the Saudi Army are recruited on a contract basis. Mobilization resources fit for military service amount to 3.4 million people.
ARMY OF SAUDI ARABIA
The ground forces (army) were officially created in 1932 with the proclamation of Saudi Arabia, although already from 1902 to 1932. they fought to create a kingdom. Subsequent wars and conflicts involving the Saudi Arabian army are summarized below:
1. Arab-Israeli War 1948 - St. 3 thousand people;
2. Arab-Israeli War 1967 - St. 20 thousand people Ground forces were deployed in Jordan;
3. Conflict over the city of Al-Wadiya in 1969 - the troops of South Yemen captured the Saudi city of Al-Wadiya, but were defeated by the Saudi Arabian army;
4. Arab-Israeli War 1973 - St. 3 thousand people, ground forces, deployed in Jordan, participated in the battles in Syria;
5. War of the coalition of the United States and its allies against Iraq in 1990-1991. - units of the National Guard (NG) recaptured the Saudi city of Hafji, captured by the Iraqis, and the Army participated in the liberation of Kuwait;
6. Conflict with Yemeni rebels Al-Houthi in 2007-2010. - Al-Houthi created bases on the territory of Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi Arabian army defeated them.
At present, the Saudi Arabian army is relatively small (74 thousand people) and is of lower priority compared to other types of the Saudi Arabian armed forces, and service in it is not considered prestigious.
The command of the ground forces is carried out by the commander through the headquarters (Riyadh).
In military-administrative terms, the territory of Saudi Arabia is divided into six regional commands (military districts or zones): Central (headquarters in Riyadh), North (Khafar al-Batin), North-West (Tabuk), South (Khamis Mushait), Eastern (Dammam) and Western (Jeddah).
Ground forces include 13 brigades (3 armored, 5 mechanized, airborne, infantry royal guard, artillery and 2 army aviation). weapons in warehouses.
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The Saudi Arabian army units are deployed at three large bases called "military cities", as well as in the area of a number of settlements. The fourth major base is being built in Jizan on the Yemeni direction. "Military cities" are a feature of the Saudi Arabian army, and the divisional-level regional command headquarters provide not only the maintenance, support and combat training of brigades in peacetime, but also their management during the war. The Northern Regional Command covers the Iraqi (Iranian) direction. Northwest - Jordanian (Israeli). South - Yemeni.
According to other sources, the Northern Command also has the 45th armored brigade, and the 10th mechanized brigade is deployed not at the base of King Abd al-Aziz, but in the city of Sharur in the Yemeni direction.
Armored brigades (4th and 12th, numbers 6, 7, 8 and 45 were mentioned) are the main attack formations of the SV. The brigade usually includes 6 battalions (3 tank, mechanized, reconnaissance and logistic support), 3 divisions (self-propelled artillery, anti-aircraft and anti-tank), 2 companies (engineering and medical), and a repair shop. According to other sources, the brigade does not have an anti-tank battalion, and instead of a reconnaissance battalion, there is a company.
Units of armored brigades are equipped with the most modern weapons in the Saudi Arabian army. The tank battalions each have 42 M1A2 tanks, the mechanized ones each have 54 M2A2 infantry fighting vehicles, 8 self-propelled 106-mm M106A2 mortars and 24 VCC-1 TOW II and Dragon ATGM launchers, and artillery battalions each have 16 self-propelled 155-mm M109A2 howitzers.
Mechanized brigades (8th, 11th and 20th, numbers 6, 10 and 14 were mentioned) are combined arms formations. The brigade usually includes 5 battalions (3 mechanized, tank and logistic support), 2 divisions (self-propelled artillery and anti-aircraft), 2 companies (engineering and medical), and a repair shop.
Units of mechanized brigades are equipped with less modern weapons than armored brigades. Tank battalions include M60A3 tanks, mechanized battalions - М2А2 infantry fighting vehicles or ACV (M113A3 +) armored personnel carriers, М106А1 or М125А1 / 2 self-propelled mortars, VCC-1 TOW II and Dragon ATGMs, and artillery battalions - 1559 mmА2 self-propelled howitzers.
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According to some reports, obsolete French weapons (tanks AMX-30S, BMP AMX-10R, ATGM NOT and self-propelled howitzers AU-F-1) are withdrawn from service for storage, or have already been withdrawn.
The airborne brigade includes 2 parachute battalions (4th and 5th), three special-purpose companies (according to some sources, united in the 85th battalion) and support units. In connection with the threat of terrorism, special forces units are increasing in number, their equipment and combat training are improving. Their independence has been increased and they report directly to the Minister of Defense.
The brigade (1st regiment) of the royal guard includes 3 light infantry battalions and a support company. It is directly subordinate to the king, has its own communications network and is equipped with light M-3 armored personnel carriers. Its personnel are recruited from the tribes of the central region of Najd, loyal to the House of Saud.
Some sources report the presence of three more cropped brigades (17th, 18th and 19th light motorized brigades) in the army. In such a brigade there are 4 battalions (3 motorized and logistic support), an artillery battalion, anti-tank and anti-aircraft batteries, as well as support companies,
The artillery brigade includes 8 divisions (3 - self-propelled howitzers PLZ-45 and 2 - towed howitzers 114 (М198), 3 - MLRS ASTROS II).
Army aviation brigades are united in the corresponding command. The 1st brigade is equipped with Bell 406 CS reconnaissance helicopters and multipurpose S-70A helicopters, the 2nd - with AN-64A attack helicopters.
Experts believe that the advantages of the Saudi Arabian army are its partial equipping with modern weapons, the disadvantages are its small size, incommensurate with the size of the country's territory and the needs of defense, insufficient staffing of sergeants and technical specialists. Some formations have only 30-50% of personnel, and the level of discipline is low. The ground forces are mercenaries from Pakistan and Jordan, and their fighting qualities are higher than that of the soldiers from the indigenous population. Some of the weapons are outdated, and the presence of several types of tanks, armored combat vehicles and artillery complicates training and logistics.
AIR FORCE
The Saudi Arabian Air Force (20 thousand people) is considered the main deterrent, strike and defensive force of the Armed Forces, capable of operating against targets in the air, on land and at sea. They are the highest priority branch of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom's leadership has set an ambitious task for the Air Force - to become the most powerful in the Middle East. The leadership of the Air Force is carried out by the commander through the headquarters (Riyadh), which includes control and 7 commands: operational, supply (maintenance), reconnaissance, logistic support and personnel, security and investigation, warehouses and training.
There are 15 military airfields in the country, including 5 main air force bases: them. King Abdel Aziz (Dhahran - provides cover for the large oil fields of the Persian Gulf); them. King Fahd (Taif - intended to protect Mecca and Medina); them. King Khaled (Khamis Mushait - provides cover for the border with Yemen); base in Tabuk (covers ports in the north-west of the country, as well as borders with Jordan and Iraq); them. Prince Sultan (Riyadh - covers the capital of the country). Other military airfields include Abqayq, Al-Asha, Jizan, Khufuf, Jeddah, Jubeyl, Medina, Sharurah and Al-Sulayil. Pilot training is conducted at the Aviation Academy. King Faisal (Al-Kharj airbase, south of Riyadh).
The Air Force includes 15 squadrons of combat aircraft:
- 7 fighter-bombers (2 - F-15S, 4 - Tornado TSP, 1 - Typhoon),
- 7 fighters (5 - F-15C / D, 1 - F-155, 1 - Tornado ADV),
- 1 reconnaissance aircraft (RF-5E and Tornado IDS].
There is also a squadron of E-3A AWACS AWACS aircraft, RE-3A and King Air 350ER radio and electronic reconnaissance aircraft, KE-3A and A330MRTT tankers, as well as a KS-130N tanker squadron, 2 S-130E / N transport aircraft squadrons, 3 a squadron of transport helicopters AV-205, AV-212 AV-412, AV-206A and Cougar, a squadron of VIP aircraft C-130H-30, L-100-30HS, C-235, 9 squadrons of training aircraft F-5B, Hawk Mk65, PC-9, Jetstream 31, Cessna 172.
Among the advantages of the Saudi Arabian Air Force, military experts note a high degree of equipment with new aircraft and weapons, and among the shortcomings - dependence on service issues from foreign specialists and dependence on the supply of spare parts, as well as weapons from abroad. In addition, about half of the pilots are princes of the blood, which does not contribute to quality selection and maintenance of discipline during the service.
Air Defense Troops
Air defense forces (16 thousand people) are the second priority type of the Armed Forces. They are entrusted with the task of covering important administrative, economic and military facilities: the capital, oil production areas, groupings of troops, air, sea and missile bases.
The command of the air defense forces is carried out by the commander through the headquarters. The air defense forces consist of anti-aircraft missile forces, anti-aircraft artillery and RTV units. Air defense fighters are under operational control.
The Saudi Arabian air defense system forms the basis of the Peace Shield GCC air defense system, which includes 17 AN / FPS-117 (V) 3 early warning radars, coupled with 28 AN / PPS-43G radars, 35 AN / TPS-63, 3 AN / TPS -70, 9 X-Tar 3D, 66 Skygyard short-range and medium-range, as well as balloon radars LASS.
The control center of the air defense system is located in Riyadh. He leads five sectors with command posts located in the cities of Dhahran (east of the country), El-Kharj (center), Khamis Mushait (south), Taif (west) and Tabuk (north-west). Air defense systems are united by the Peace Shield command, control, reconnaissance and communications system.
Air Force bases have operational centers that are integrated with E-ZA AWACS AWACS aircraft, fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft artillery batteries. Organizationally, the air defense forces are divided into 6 air defense groups (districts).
In total, the air defense of Saudi Arabia has 53 batteries of towed air defense systems (20 - Patriot with 8 launchers, 16 - I-Hawk with 8 launchers and 17 - Shahine with 4 launchers AMX-30SA). It also includes 18 batteries of self-propelled air defense systems (1 - Crotale with 4 launchers, 17 - Shahine no 4 launchers AMX-30SA). The SV includes 9 batteries of self-propelled Crotale air defense systems, and the SV and air defense systems include a number of batteries of the Avenger air defense system, 20-mm ZU and ZSU Vulcan (M167 and M16Z), 30-mm ZSU AMX-30DCA, 35-mm ZU GDF, MANPADS Stinger and Mistral.
NAVAL FORCES
The Navy (13.5 thousand people) provides protection of the kingdom and its oil platforms from the sea from the Iranian Navy and opposition to the Israeli Navy, as well as the protection of sea routes for oil export. They are the third-highest priority branch of the Saudi Arabian military. The Navy consists of two fleets - Western (on the Red Sea, headquarters in Jeddah) and Eastern (in the Persian Gulf, headquarters in Al-Jubeil). The headquarters of the Navy is located in Riyadh.
Each fleet includes several groups of ships and boats. The eastern fleet is the strongest. The Navy has a network of naval bases (naval bases) and basing points: on the Red Sea - Jeddah, Yanbu, the Jizan naval base is being built, in the Persian Gulf - Al-Jubeil, Dammam, Ras Tanura, Al-Shamakh, Duba and Quizan.
Naval aviation is based in Al-Jubail and is equipped with helicopters: AS-565 (anti-submarine with AS-15TT anti-ship missiles, search and rescue) and AS-332B / F (half with AM-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles, half transport).
The Marine Corps (3 thousand people) has a two-battalion regiment equipped with BMR-600P amphibious armored personnel carriers.
The coastal defense forces include 4 batteries of mobile coastal SCRC Otomat.
The advantage of the Saudi Arabian Navy is considered to be the equipment of relatively modern ships and boats, the disadvantage is the lack of submarines.
Missile Troops
The Rocket Forces (1,000 men) are an independent branch of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Their base is located in Al-Uttah and has 8-12 starting positions of modified DF-3A (CSS-2) medium-range ballistic missiles. According to other sources, 2 divisions are deployed: one in the Al-Sulayyal oasis, 475 km south-south-west of Riyadh, the second - in Al-Juyfer, near the Zl-Khair airbase, located south of the capital. There is a training unit that can also launch missiles - it is located in the south-west of the country near Al-Liddam.
Missile systems have limited mobility (on trailers), and it takes 2-3 hours to prepare them for launch. A third of the missiles on transporters are ready for launch, a third are half filled and a third are not filled and are in the warehouse.
These missiles are considered a strategic non-nuclear deterrent. They have high-explosive warheads (CU), low accuracy and are aimed at large settlements in Iran and Israel. There are no nuclear warheads, but the Saudi Arabian leadership has stated that as soon as Iran receives nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will have them in a few weeks. It is most likely that the kingdom will receive it from Pakistan, since it once funded its nuclear program. However, the KSA can create nuclear weapons on its own. This will be facilitated by the fact that by 2030 the country is scheduled to have 16 reactors.
NATIONAL GUARD
The National Guard is a separate land force of the kingdom, with its own command structure and communication network, reporting directly to the king, who directs them through a special ministry created in 2013.
NG has priority over the army in equipping personnel with modern weapons, as well as in combat training. The Guard is a security force that ensures the fight against internal threats, and at the same time serves as a defensive force against external invasion. The tasks of NG are the protection of the royal palace, protection from military coups, the defense of strategic objects and resources, the protection of Mecca and Medina. The NG is the royal Praetorian Guard, with personnel drawn from tribes loyal to the king and his family (mostly from the Najd region). It is always headed by a high-ranking member of the royal family. NG was reorganized and prepared with American assistance.
The number of NG is 100 thousand people, it includes active forces (75 thousand people) and tribal militia (25 thousand people). Active forces include 8-9 regular brigades (3-4 mechanized, 5 infantry, tribal militia - 24 irregular battalions, called regiments. There is also a ceremonial cavalry squadron. According to other sources, NG includes 12 brigades (5 mechanized, 6 infantry, special forces) and 19 battalions of tribal militias.
NG formations are deployed in 3 regional commands, each with 2-4 brigades (mechanized, light infantry), tribal militia battalions and other units.
The NG mechanized brigade usually includes 5 battalions (4 combined arms and logistic support), an artillery battalion, an anti-aircraft battery and 3 companies (headquarters, communications, engineering). The brigade has 360 modern wheeled armored vehicles of the LAV family, 106 infantry fighting vehicles LAV-25, as well as 90-mm BMTV LAV-AG, armored personnel carriers LAV, self-propelled units (120-mm mortars LAV-M, ATGM TOW-IIA LAV-AT), KShM LAV -CC, engineering vehicles LAV-ENG, BREM LAV-ARV, as well as 24 self-propelled wheeled 155-mm Caesar howitzers.
The NG light infantry brigade usually includes 4 battalions (3 light infantry and logistics support), an artillery battalion and support companies. The brigade is equipped mainly with obsolete V-150 wheeled armored personnel carriers, 81-mm M29 mortars, Dragon ATGMs, as well as 105-mm M102 howitzers.
Below are the names of NG brigades and their features:
- mechanized by him. Imam Mohammed ibn Saud in Riyadh - 4 combined-arms battalions, an artillery division of 105-mm M102 howitzers;
- mechanized by him. Prince Saad Abd al-Rahman in Riyadh - 4 combined arms battalions;
- mechanized by him. Turks;
- light infantry them. King Khalid;
- mechanized by him. King Abd al-Aziz in Ofuf - 4 combined arms battalions, artillery division of 155-mm M198 howitzers;
- light infantry them. Prince Mohammed bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud;
- light infantry them. Omar bin Qattaba in Taif;
- two LPBRs in Jidce and Medina.
Military experts consider NG worthy of its loyalty to the king, high morale, discipline and combat training, as well as staffing with modern highly mobile armored combat vehicles, shortcomings - the lack of tanks and helicopters, weak air defense.
Analysis of the organization of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia showed that ground forces (SV + NG) with 3-4 armored and 14-17 mechanized / infantry brigades maintain a ratio of strike and defensive formations of 1: 4.3-4.7. This indicates a purely defensive nature of the KSA ground forces.
WEAPON
The armament of the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia is mainly American and partly French, there are English, Italian, Swiss, Chinese, etc. The stocks of weapons and military equipment are very large, for example, the army has weapons for twice as many brigades.
Armored vehicles
The tank fleet has modern American tanks M1A2SEP and M1A2, as well as outdated vehicles: American M60A3 and French AMX-30S. Modern tanks have 33% of the total and 50% of the number in service. It is planned to upgrade 315 M1A2 tanks to the M1A2SEP level and purchase 270 newest German Leopard 2A7 + tanks (according to other sources, 600-800). However, this purchase may fail due to the ban of the German government, and in this case it is planned to purchase the M1A2SEP tanks or the Turkish Altay tanks under development. In the future, it is planned to have up to 700 modern tanks, and remove the old M60A3 and AMX-30 from service.
The AFV fleet has 30% of modern vehicles, incl. in NE - 8%, in NG - 49%.
BMTV SVs include obsolete French wheeled 4x4 vehicles AML-60 and AML-90, and NG - modern Canadian-American 8x8 LAV-AG (Swiss Piranha I with 90mm cannon). New BMTV LAV-II with 90mm cannon will be purchased.
BMP SV includes modern American vehicles M2A2 and BRM M3A2, as well as older French AMX-10R Modern BMP 51%. It is planned to upgrade the M2A2 and M3A2 machines to the A3 level. Ordered 8x8 wheeled infantry fighting vehicles LAV-II.
BMP NG are represented by modern Canadian LAV-25. The purchase of new infantry fighting vehicles LAV-II is planned.
The BTR SV fleet has obsolete American tracked vehicles М113А1 / 2 and vehicles of their modernized version of the ACV according to the Turkish project. It is planned to upgrade all M113s to the ACV level (324 units have already been ordered). There are also 150 obsolete French wheeled 4x4 M-3 Panhard armored personnel carriers. 155 wheeled 8x8 armored personnel carriers LAV-II were ordered.
Wheeled armored personnel carriers NG are represented by modern Swiss 8x8 Piranha LAV, Saudi 8x8 AF-40-8-1 and outdated American V-150S. To replace the latter, it is planned to purchase 724 Canadian AFV LAV-II and 200 Saudi 6x6 AI Jazirah.
The armored personnel carriers of the Marine Corps are represented by the amphibious Spanish 6x6 BMR-600.
NG armored vehicles include British 4x4 Tactica vehicles. It is planned to purchase 264 French Aravis vehicles.
Artillery
Artillery has 28% of modern systems, incl. in NE - 23%, and in NG - 79%.
Towed SV guns are represented by the outdated American M101, M102, M114 and M115 howitzers, as well as the more modern M198 and FH-70 (the latter are English). It should be noted that only M114 howitzers are in service (used for combat training), and the rest, incl. modern - in storage.
NG towed guns include the M102 and M198 howitzers. Self-propelled howitzers SV are represented by outdated American systems М109А1 / 2 and French AU-F-1, as well as modern Chinese PLZ-45, SG NG - modern French Caesar wheel systems.
The towed SV mortars include the obsolete American M29 and M30, the French 120mm Brandt, and the NG mortars - the M29.
Ground forces self-propelled mortars include the outdated American M125A1 / 2 and M106A1 / 2, NG self-propelled mortars - modern French TDA on the LAV-M chassis. It is planned to purchase 36 new Finnish NEMO systems on the LAV chassis for NG.
MLRS are represented by relatively modern Spanish 127-mm / 180-mm ASTROS II systems, carrying 32/16 NURs with a firing range of 30/35 km.
Medium-range missile systems include the outdated Chinese DF-3A (CSS-2) systems. Their missiles have a firing range of 2400-2650 km; warhead 2-2.5 t, KVO 1 km. It is planned to replace them with more accurate Pakistani MRBMs Ghauri II or more modern Chinese DF-21A / C with non-nuclear warheads, firing range of 2700/1700 km and KVO 100-300 / 30-40 m.
ATGMs are represented by portable and self-propelled complexes. Among them, 53% are modern systems.
Portable ATGM SV include the outdated American Dragon complexes and the more modern TOW-2A, and the NG ATGM - Dragon. To replace the Dragon ATGM, licensed production of the Swedish Bill-2 complexes has begun.
Self-propelled ATGM SV include the American VCC-1 ITOW complexes and the French AMX-10R (NOT), and the NG ATGM - LAV-AT TOW-2A. It is planned to purchase another 72 LAV-AT launchers and 2500 TOW-2A ATGMs for NG.
Air defense
Air defense systems include 55% of modern systems, artillery and air defense systems, towed and self-propelled, as well as MANPADS.
Towed anti-aircraft air defense systems are represented by the Swiss 35-mm GDF Oerlikon and outdated Swedish 40-mm L / 70 cannons, and NG - by the American 20-mm M167 Vulcan mounts.
ZSUs include the American 20-mm M163 Vulcan mounts on the M113 armored personnel carrier chassis and the French AMX-30DCA 30-mm SPAAGs on the AMX-30S tank chassis. According to some reports, 20 35-mm Skyranger SPAAGs on the LAV chassis were purchased for NG.
MANPADS are represented by the outdated American Redeye complexes and the more modern Stinger, as well as the modern French Mistral.
Self-propelled air defense systems include modern American Avenger / Stinger complexes, outdated French Crotale wheel complexes and more modern Shahine AMX-30SA on the AMX-30S tank chassis. For NG, it is planned to purchase 68 MPCV air defense systems with Mistral-2 missiles on the chassis of Lohr machines.
Towed air defense systems are represented by the obsolete American I-Hawk (modernized) and more modern Patriot PAC-2, as well as the French Shahine ATTS. It is planned to upgrade the Patriot PAC-2 air defense system to the PAC-3 level.
Aircraft and aircraft weapons
Helicopters include exclusively modern machines.
Attack helicopters SV are represented by the American AN-64A. It is planned to upgrade them to the AH-64U level.
Security helicopters include American reconnaissance Bell 406CS, transport S-70A and UH-60A, French ambulance AS-365N.
It is planned to purchase 156-190 helicopters from the USA for the NG army aviation being created, incl. 72-106 shock (36-70 AN-64D Block III, 36 light AH-6i) and 84 support (72 amphibious UH-60M and 12 light MD-530F). Thus, the number of NG helicopters will be 2.3 times more than that of SV helicopters (attack helicopters - 6 times). 2592 Hellfire-II ATGMs are planned to be purchased for attack helicopters.
The Air Force has, in the main, modern aircraft and weapons (combat aircraft - up to 80%), while the fleet is constantly replenished with the latest machines.
Fighter-bombers include multi-role fighters (American F-15S and European Typhoons) as well as European Tornado TSP attack aircraft; fighters - American F-15C / D and F-15S, British Tornado ADV interceptors; reconnaissance aircraft - European Tornado IDS (the only exception is the outdated American RF-5E, while the F-5E / F combat vehicles have been put into reserve). It is planned to upgrade the F-15S aircraft to the F-15SA, and most importantly - to purchase 132 new aircraft (84 F-15SA and 48 Typhoon).
AWACS aircraft are represented by the American E-3A AWACS (it is planned to purchase the Swedish SAAB 2000 AEW), radio and electronic reconnaissance aircraft - by the American RE-3A and King Air350ER.
Tanker aircraft include American КЕ-3А and КС-130Н, European A330MRTT (6 more A330MRTTs are planned to be purchased), transport aircraft - American С-130E / Н, VIР С-130Н-30, L-100-30HS, С-235 aircraft ...
Transport helicopters are represented by American machines of Italian production AV-205 and AV-206A, AV-212 and AV-412 (more modern) and French Cougar.
Training aircraft include the older American Cessna 172, Jetstream 31 and F-5B, the more modern British Hawk Mk65 and the Swiss RS-9. It is planned to purchase 22 Hawk AJT and 55 RS-21 aircraft.
Aircraft weapons have only 34% of modern systems, so large purchases of new models are planned.
Air-to-ground missiles include the American AGM-65A / D / G Maverick, the British anti-radar ALARM and anti-ship Sea Eagle, the French helicopter anti-ship AS-15 and AM-39 Exocet. It is planned to purchase American AGM-84K SLAM-ER cruise missiles (20 units) and British Storm Shadow, Italian Marte anti-ship missiles, and British Brimstone anti-tank missiles.
Guided bombs are represented by the American systems Paveway-2 and GBU-10/12/15. It is planned to purchase 900 JDAM bombs: 550 GBU-38 (Mk82), 350 GBU-31 (250 Mk84 and 100 BLU-109), as well as Paveway-4 and 404 CBU-105SFW cluster bombs with BLU-108 / B homing submunitions.
Short-range air-to-air missiles include America's modern AIM-9L / M / X and older AIM-9J / Ps, as well as the older British Red Tops, while medium-range missiles include America's modern AIM-120 and older AIM-7Fs. / M as well as English Sky Flash. It is planned to purchase 120 AIM-9X and 50 AIM-120C missiles, as well as German IRIS-T.
Container detection systems are represented by American AAQ-33 Sniper, French ATLIS and Damocles. It is planned to purchase 95 more AAQ-33 systems.
Unmanned airlines include Italian reconnaissance Falco (weight 420 kg, payload 70 kg, range over 200 km, flight duration 14 hours). Scientific and technological center named after King Abd al-Aziz created a lighter complex with a flight range of 150 km and a duration of 8 hours.
The ships
The Navy has modern frigates, corvettes and missile boats. The frigates are represented by French ships of the F-3000S type (displacement 4650 tons, armament 2x4 anti-ship missiles MM40 Exocet, UVP with 16 Aster-15 missiles, 2x6 Mistral missiles, 76-mm AU, 2 20-mm AU, 4 533-mm TA, helicopter AS -565WA Panter) and F-2000S (2610 t, 2x4 Otomat anti-ship missiles, 1x8 Crotale Naval missiles, 100-mm AU, 2x2 40-mm AU, 4,533-mm TA, helicopter SA-365 Dauphin 2). The possibility of purchasing two new destroyers of the Arleigh Burke class in the USA or in France - 4-6 frigates of the FREMM class is being considered.
Corvettes are represented by American ships of the PCG-1 type (1038 t, 2x4 anti-ship missiles Nagroop, 76-mm AU, 1x6 20-mm AU, 2 20-mm AU, 2x3 324-mm TA). Missile boats - American type PGG-1 (495 t, 2x2 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, 76-mm AU, 1x6 20-mm AU, 2 20-mm AU). The possibility of replacing corvettes and missile boats with French corvettes of the Gowind type with a displacement of 2,000 tons is being considered.
Patrol boats are American type Halter and French type Simonneau.
Minesweepers include the obsolete American MSC-322 type and the modern English Sandown type.
Landing boats are outdated American type LCM (capacity 34 tons or 80 people) and LCU-1610 (capacity 170 tons or 120 people).
The possibility of forming a flotilla of submarines (6 French Marlin types - improved Scorpenes) is being considered.
General analysis
An analysis of the armament of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia showed that the ratio of tanks, armored combat vehicles and artillery is 1: 4.4: 1.2 (for weapons in service - 1: 5.5: 1.2). Such ratios confirm the defensive orientation of the ground forces. The ratio of fighters and fighter-bombers is 1: 0.43 (for aircraft in formation - 1: 0.71). This shows the Air Force's emphasis on defense, as evidenced by the ratio of air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles (1: 0.38). The defensive focus of the Armed Forces is also evidenced by the presence of a powerful ground air defense system. Modern in the Armed Forces are only 33% of tanks, 30% of AFVs (in the Lands - 8%, in the NG - 49%), 28% of artillery (in the Lands - 23%, in the NG - 79%), 53% of the ATGM (in the Lands - 51%, in NG - 100%), 55% of anti-aircraft weapons of air defense, ground forces and ground forces, 100% of ground helicopters, 80% of air force combat aircraft, 100% of naval warships. From this it can be seen that the armament of ground forces is 2/3 outdated, and even NG, which has more modern weapons than the army, cannot compensate for this, since it is intended mainly for solving internal problems and does not have the tanks necessary for offensive operations and conducting combined arms combat. That is, the ground forces (army + NG) are adapted to solve mainly defensive tasks.
Hence, it can be argued that the armed forces of Saudi Arabia are intended only for the defense of the country. However, the planned large purchases of offensive weapons (600-800 tanks, 1080 armored combat vehicles, 156-190 helicopters and 132 attack aircraft) indicate intentions to significantly increase the offensive capabilities of the Armed Forces.
MILITARY INDUSTRY OF SAUDI ARABIA
The military industry of the KSA produces only wheeled armored personnel carriers (8x8 AF-40-8-1 and 6x6 Al Jazirah), as well as an AF-40-8-2 BRM, so the weapons have to be purchased abroad.
The Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia are equipped mainly with American weapons (74% of tanks, 78% of armored combat vehicles, 56% of artillery, 96% of anti-tank systems, 64% of anti-aircraft weapons, 91% of ground helicopters, 63% of combat aircraft and 86% of their weapons, 65% of combat ships and missile boats). Therefore, the kingdom can only wage war with the help and support of the United States. However, the kingdom's authorities have tried and are trying to get rid of this dependence by diversifying the sources of obtaining weapons by acquiring weapons and military equipment in other countries:
- in France (tanks AMX-30S, BMTV AML-60/90, BMP AMX-10R, BTR M-3, SG AU-F-1 and Caesar, ATGM NOT, ZSU AMX-30DCA, SAM Crotale and Shahine, MANPADS Mistral, helicopters AS-365N, AS-565 and AS-532, frigates F-3000S and F-2000S);
- in England (FH70 howitzers, Tornado, Typhoon and Hawk aircraft, Sandown-type minesweepers);
- in China (SG PLZ-45, MRBM DF-3A);
- in Switzerland (ZU GDF, aircraft RS-9);
- in Spain (armored personnel carrier BMR-600, aircraft C-235);
- in Brazil (MLRS Astros II), etc.
It is also planned to purchase German Leopard 2A7 + tanks and additional Typhoon aircraft. But among the weapons planned for purchase, most of them are again American, so dependence on the United States remains and even increases.
Having considered and analyzed the armed forces of Saudi Arabia, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. In terms of priority among the types of the KSA Armed Forces, the Air Force is in first place, then the Air Defense, Navy, NG and Land forces.
2. The Armed Forces of the KSA, judging by their organization and armament, are intended only for the defense of the country,
3. The planned large purchases of offensive weapons (600-800 tanks, 1080 armored combat vehicles, 156-190 helicopters and 132 attack aircraft) indicate the intentions of the KSA leadership to significantly increase the offensive capabilities of the Armed Forces (including NG).
4. The Armed Forces, having predominantly American weapons, can only wage war with the help and support of the United States.
COMPARISON OF THE ARMED FORCES OF SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN
The confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a special case and one of the largest components of the Arab-Iranian conflict, the confrontation within the Muslim civilization of two branches of Islam (Sunnis and Shiites), as well as two subcivilizations and nations (Arabs and Persians). This conflict manifested itself most clearly during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), which became the largest war since 1945. Iraq, where the Sunni Arabs were in power, fought against the Shiite Persians of Iran. During this war, ballistic missiles and chemical weapons were actively used and more than 1 million people died. Iraq was financially supported by many Arab countries where the Sunnis were in power, and, first of all, Saudi Arasia. They remember this in Iran.
After the defeat of Iraq by US troops and their allies in two wars (in 1991 and 2003) and the withdrawal of their troops from the country in December 2011, Shiites came to power there, making up 55% of the population. As a result, Iraq came out of confrontation with Iran, and economic, political and other ties were established between the countries. In the event of the outbreak of the Iran-Saudi war, the possibility of the passage of Iranian troops through the territory of Iraq (with or without his consent) and their invasion of the KSA cannot be ruled out.
The main military threat to Saudi Arabia is Iran. Although an attack by Iranian ground forces on Saudi Arabia is unlikely, in the event of an American attack on Iran, its asymmetric retaliatory strike with ballistic missiles against KSA targets is quite possible (for example, Iraq in 1991 fired missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel). In addition, Iran can use special forces against Saudi Arabia and use the Iranians living in the kingdom to destabilize the situation in the country and as a "fifth column". It is also possible sabotage on the gas and oil platforms of the KSA and an attack on them by missile boats and submarines of the Iranian Navy.
The area of Iran is 1648 thousand square meters. km, population - 77.89 million people, and the Armed Forces number 545 thousand people. (KSA has 2,149 thousand sq. km., 28.7 million people and 224.5 thousand people, respectively). Those. the population of Iran is 2.7 times more, and the Armed Forces - 2.4 times.
The ground forces of Iran have 350 thousand people. (+125 thousand people. IRGC), they include 12 SV divisions (4 tank, 6 infantry, airborne and commando) + 15 infantry divisions of the IRGC.
The SV KSA has 75 thousand people. (+100 thousand NG people), 10-11 SV brigades (3-4 armored, 5 mechanized, airborne and royal guards) + 8-9 NG brigades (3-4 mechanized and 5 infantry) +24 battalions. Hence, the SV + IRGC of Iran is 2.7 times more than the SV + NG KSA. The Iranian Army has 12 divisions, and the KSA Army has 4 calculated divisions, i.e. 3 times less (in the IRGC of Iran there are 15 divisions, and in the NG KSA there are 11 calculated divisions). Taken together, Iran has a 1.8-fold superiority in the number of ground divisions.
Iran has 1,693 tanks, 1,285 AFVs, 3,200 guns and MLRS, while the KSA has 1113 tanks, 4,936 AFVs, 852 guns and MLRS. Hence, Iran's ground forces have a quantitative superiority in strike and firepower (in tanks by 1.5 times and in artillery by 3.8 times), but the Saudi Arabian army has superiority in maneuverability (more than an armored vehicle by 3.8 times).
However, in order to deploy a sufficiently strong Iranian army in Saudi Arabia, it is necessary to conduct a large amphibious operation, and this is unlikely given the overall superiority of the KSA Air Force and the presence of the US-Saudi Navy in the Persian Gulf. The passage of Iranian troops by Iraq through its territory is also unlikely, although it is taken into account by the General Staff of the KSA.
The Iranian Air Force has 320 combat aircraft and 100 attack helicopters (224 and 75 in service), and the missile forces have 52-78 ballistic missile (BR) launchers. Incl. 12-18 PU OTRK R-300E / M (300/100 missiles with a firing range of 300/550 km), 12-13 PU OTRK / BRMD Shehab-1/2 (100/300 missiles - 350/750 km) and 12 launchers MRBM Shehab-3 / 3V (300 missiles - 1280/1930 km). In total, there are 36-48 launchers and 1100 missiles with warheads of 0.6-1 t and KVO 0.5-2 km, capable of hitting targets in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi Arabian Air Force has 338 combat aircraft (268 in service), 12 attack helicopters, and the missile forces - 8-12 launchers BR DF-3 with 40-60 BR.
From Iranian air bases in Bushehr and on about. Khark to the capital of KSA Riyadh 640 km (this corresponds to the range of Iranian attack aircraft F-4D / E and Su-24). However, from these bases to the oil terminals of Saudi Arabia Ras Tannura and Al-Khoubar only 280-320 km, and to the oil and gas platforms of the KSA in the Persian Gulf is even closer.
The Iranian Air Force has almost the same number of combat aircraft as Saudi Arabia, but they are outdated, and their combat readiness is low (224 units in service, and according to other sources up to 100). The KSA Air Force is equipped with modern western combat aircraft with effective weapons, their operations are supported by AWACS, electronic warfare and refueling aircraft. In addition, Saudi Arabia has a powerful air defense system against aviation, therefore, Iranian strikes against KSA targets will most likely be delivered not by aircraft, but by ballistic missiles (R-300E / M and Shehab-1 BRs can strike the ports of Ras Tannura and Al-Khobar, Shehab-2 - Riyadh, and Shehab-3 / ЗВ - the entire territory of the kingdom).
The Iranian Navy has 3 submarines (plus over 20 small ones), 7 corvettes, 25 missile and 130 patrol boats, 13 small landing ships and 3 marine brigades (7.6 thousand people), as well as many coastal SCRC batteries. The latter include the Nasr-1, G-8D2 and Noor-2 complexes (range 35, 120 and 130 km), since 2006 the Noor-3 SCRC (170 km) have been received, since 2011 - Qader, Raad and Khalij Fars (200 , 360 and 300 km). A particular danger is the Khalij Fars SCRC with quasi-ballistic missiles (warhead 650 kg, electro-optical guidance). SCRC mobile batteries are located on the Iranian coast, and stationary batteries are located on the islands (Farsi, Sirri, Abu Mussa, Larak, etc.), as well as on oil platforms. The width of the Persian Gulf (200-320 km) and the Strait of Hormuz (60-100 km) allows the Iranian SCRC to pose a serious threat to the ships of the US Navy, Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. And finally, Iran can massively use cheap mine weapons - they can be very effective.
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The KSA Navy has 7 frigates (deployed in the Red Sea), 4 corvettes, 9 missile boats, 56 patrol boats and 8 landing boats, a marine regiment (3,000 men), as well as 4 batteries of coastal SCRC.
The Iranian Navy has a quantitative superiority in submarines (they are not in the KSA), in missile boats (2.8 times) and patrol boats (2.3 times), the KSA Navy - in warships (1.6 times). Ships of the Iranian Navy have weak air defense systems.
The number of anti-ship missiles on ships and boats of Iran and KSA is approximately the same (128 and 124). The KSA Navy has a qualitative superiority. However, the presence of a large number of baby submarines, small boats with light Kowsar and ATGM anti-tank systems, as well as batteries of long-range coastal defense anti-ship missile systems ensure the superiority of the Iranian Navy over the Saudi Arabian Navy. But the superiority of the kingdom's air force neutralizes it.
In addition, in Saudi Arabia at the airbase. Prince Sultan's aircraft may be based on the American Air Force F-15, F-16 and F-22. Other US bases are located nearby: two in Bahrain (Air Force - Sheikh Isa and the Navy in Manama), and one in Qatar (Al Udeid Air Base, where 3,500 American troops are located and weapons depots for a heavy combat brigade group ). In the Persian Gulf, two aircraft carrier strike groups of the US Navy are constantly present (2 aircraft carriers with 110 F / A-18 attack aircraft; 4 cruisers, 6-7 destroyers and 4 submarines with 755-803 Tomahawk cruise missiles). An expeditionary battalion of marines (up to 2 thousand people) is deployed on the landing ships. All this almost excludes the possibility of an amphibious operation of the Iranian Armed Forces in Saudi Arabia,
In addition, the rapid strengthening of the Saudi-American grouping can provide assistance to the Armed Forces of the UAE and other GCC countries.
In December 2012, at the GCC summit, an agreement was reached on the creation of a unified military command, which will have to direct the actions of the combined forces of the allies. The basis of the new structure will be the "Shield of the Peninsula" force, the number of which is expected to be increased to 30 thousand people.
To date, the military integration processes have made the greatest progress in the field of air defense. On the basis of the Saudi air defense system, a joint air defense system "Belt of the Peninsula" was created. Its capabilities make it possible to monitor the airspace of the GCC countries and adjacent areas, as well as better coordinate the actions of air defense forces. The system is capable of simultaneously tracking several hundred aircraft. At the same time, the national air defense ground forces and fighter aircraft are not integrated into this system. The Belt of the Peninsula interacts with the Qatar-based US Air Force Regional Air Operations Command Center,
Comparison of the Iranian Air Force and the GCC shows that while the former have 320 combat aircraft and 100 attack helicopters (224 and 75 in service), the latter have 685 combat aircraft and 115 attack helicopters (525 modern F-15, F-16, F-18 , Typhoon, Tornado, Mirage2000 and 58 modern AN-64). At the same time, the GCC Air Force has more efficient aircraft and helicopters with better weapons, which, moreover, are provided with AWACS, electronic warfare aircraft and tankers. A significant part of Iranian aircraft is outdated and is experiencing a serious shortage of spare parts. However, the possibility of joint effective actions of the GCC Air Force is in question.
Comparison of the Iranian Navy and the GCC shows that while the former have 3 submarines (and over 20 small ones), 7 corvettes and 25 missile boats, the latter have 14 frigates, 8 corvettes and 42 missile boats. The quality superiority of the ship composition is also on the side of the GCC. But, as in the case of the Air Force, the possibility of joint effective actions of the GCC Navy is questionable.
In terms of the quantitative and qualitative composition of the US Air Force and Navy in the Persian Gulf, as well as the GCC Air Force and Navy, they have an overwhelming superiority over the Iranian forces. Therefore, an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia is possible only in the event of an American air attack against Iran and in the form of an asymmetric retaliatory strike with Shehab ballistic missiles at oil and gas production sites, terminals and other facilities, as well as in the form of sabotage actions of special forces, submarines and boats.
Saudi Arabia has Patriot air defense systems, but, without being included in a special missile defense system, they are unable to intercept Iranian Shehab missiles. Therefore, at present, with the help of the United States, a regional GCC missile defense system is being created, which is designed to protect oil and gas production sites, terminals and other important facilities. It will include the AEGIS ballistic missile detection radar deployed on cruisers and destroyers of the US Navy in the Persian Gulf and integrated with the US PAC-3 air defense system in Qatar (2 batteries, 12 launchers) and Kuwait (2 batteries, 16 launchers), as well as air defense systems RAS-2 of Saudi Arabia (20 batteries, 160 launchers) and air defense systems RAS-2/3 UAE (2 batteries, 10 launchers). The United Arab Emirates ordered the latest THAAD missile defense systems (2 batteries, 6 launchers) from the United States, which are to be delivered in 2014, and Qatar - Patriot PAC-3 missile defense / air defense missile systems (11 batteries, 44 launchers) and THAAD missile defense systems (2 batteries , 12 PU).
However, without even inflicting air and missile strikes on targets in Saudi Arabia, but simply by closing the passage of Saudi tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with the help of minefields and batteries of the coastal SCRC, Iran will cause enormous damage to the economy of the kingdom.
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Saudi Arabia has threatened Iran with serious consequences for "an act of war." The reason was a missile - a modification of the Soviet Scud, fired from Yemen and shot down near the Saudi capital of Riyadh. Tehran denies having anything to do with the attack. But the Saudis reserve the right to "respond to Iran at the right time in the right way." Should a direct conflict be expected?
"Our friendly advice is to immediately end attacks on the innocent and defenseless people of Yemen, while discarding the barrage of useless accusations." This is how the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Bahram Ghasemi, responded to the accusations thrown by the Saudis of an "act of aggression" by Iran.
Iran denies having anything to do with rocket attacks on Saudi territory from positions in Yemen. On the eve it became known that a ballistic missile was fired towards the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh. The Saudi Ministry of Defense said that the kingdom's air defense shot down a Burkan-1 missile near the King Khalid airport, 35 km north of the capital. Yemeni Shiite Houthi rebels claiming responsibility for the launch say the missile hit its target.
What the Saudis accused Iran of
Representatives of the Arab coalition fighting in Yemen, led by Saudi Arabia, accused Iran not only of providing the Yemeni Houthis with ballistic missiles.
A coalition spokesman, Saudi Colonel Turki al-Maliki, said Iran has supplied Shiite rebels with “all kinds of weapons,” from drones to lethal weapons. Burkan-1 ballistic missiles are also "made in Iran," the Saudi military says. According to the coalition, Iranian experts transferred the missile launch technology to the Houthis. Moreover, Iranian military specialists directly participated in the launches of these missiles at targets in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom's authorities claim.
The Saudis reserve the right to respond to this attack "at the appropriate time and in the necessary manner." “We have already heard that, on the basis of Article 51 of the UN Charter, Saudi Arabia has the right to a military response to Iran,” said Boris Dolgov, a senior researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, in a comment to the VZGLYAD newspaper. Article 51 of the UN Charter guarantees the right of member states to defend individually or collectively in the event of an attack.
In the meantime, the command of the Arabian coalition announced the closure of all airports and ports in Yemen.
Yemeni layout
The current armed conflict in Yemen has been going on since 2014. On the one hand, the troops of the ousted Sunni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, supported by Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-led Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, are participating in the war. On the other hand, the Shiite Houthi movement (or "Ansar Allah") operates, enjoying the political support of the leading Shiite country - Iran. "Tehran denies military support for the Houthi movement, but openly supports the Houthis diplomatically, politically, by supplying humanitarian supplies," Dolgov said. The third party to the conflict is the Yemeni "branch" of the Islamic State * and the Ansar al-Sharia coalition associated with al-Qaeda.
“The recent events, especially the shelling of Saudi Arabia from the territory of Yemen, has obviously aggravated both the situation in the region as a whole and relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” stated Boris Dolgov. But, the expert points out, the beginning of this confrontation should be counted from 2014, when the Saudis directly intervened in the internal conflict in Yemen.
The air strikes, which were methodically carried out by the Saudi-led coalition, "literally led to a humanitarian disaster in Yemen," Dolgov said. “More than 20 thousand civilians were killed. The infrastructure was destroyed (including water supply and water treatment plants), which led to an epidemic of cholera, which also claimed thousands of lives, ”the source said.
Saudi Arabia has already been beaten with modified Scuds
Saudi Arabia's involvement in the Yemeni campaign prompted a backlash from the Houthi rebels. The expert recalls: “Shelling of Saudi territory has begun. The current rocket attack is not the first incident of its kind. Earlier, two oil refineries were destroyed on the territory of Saudi Arabia ”.
This is an attack that took place at the end of July this year. Houthi troops launched a missile attack on an oil refinery near the city of Yanbu, located 1,000 km from the Saudi-Yemeni border.
Arab media reported that the Houthis deployed a Burkan-2 ballistic missile. These weapons are actually part of the Soviet military heritage. "Burkan" is a modification of the Soviet operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) 9K72 "Elbrus". The OTRK includes R-17 single-stage ballistic missiles, in the NATO classification of Scud B. In the 1970s, Elbruses were actively exported, including to the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (NDRY or South Yemen), which was oriented towards the USSR. Iran also bought these complexes through Libya.
The Burkan-1 missile, which the Houthis demonstrated in 2016, resembles the Iranian Shehab-2, which is also the North Korean Hwaseong-6.
The Burkan was first used in April last year to strike the Saudi airbase King Fahd. The second blow to the refinery this summer confirmed that the Saudi air defense system is unable to neutralize the missiles created on the basis of obsolete Soviet models.
The Houthis are actively working against Saudi Arabia and “on the ground”. “There were incidents when Houthi troops penetrated the territory of Saudi Arabia, fired at border posts, attacked convoys,” Dolgov said.
But is it possible not a mediated, but a direct clash between Iran and Saudi Arabia? What are the strengths of the rival regional powers, and what could be the "battlefield"?
Who will win?
From the point of view of manpower, Iran wins significantly, as pointed out in an interview with the VZGLYAD newspaper by the director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, Reserve Colonel Semyon Bagdasarov.
The number of Iranian armed forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is from 600 to 900 thousand people, plus a significant mobilization resource, in particular, the Basij paramilitary militia. "The militia, organizationally subordinate to the IRGC, can field several million people," adds the source.
The number of the royal armed forces of Saudi Arabia, together with the national guard and paramilitaries - about 220 thousand people.
At the same time, it should be noted that the kingdom ranks 4th in the world in terms of military spending (Russia is in 3rd place after the United States and China). According to SIPRI for 2017, the Saudis spend $ 63.7 billion on defense, or 10% of gross domestic product. In the same ranking, Iran is in 19th place, with $ 12.3 billion in declared military spending, or 3% of GDP.
"Iran has a large number of tanks, aircraft, including its own production - which the Saudis do not have," Baghdasarov points out. According to open data, the Iranian army is armed with more than 1.6 thousand tanks, including 150 Iranian-made Zulfiqar tanks (created on the basis of T-72 components and American M48 and M60), as well as about 480 T-72 tanks. The number of combat aircraft is estimated at 300 units, including the Soviet MiG-29, Su-24 and Su-25. Speaking of air defense, let us recall the successful tests of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems supplied by Russia. “We will also mention the missile forces. Thus, the Shahab-3 missiles have a flight range of up to 2 thousand kilometers, "added Bagdasarov.
According to experts, the Saudi army has about 450 American M1A2 Abrams tanks (plus about the same number of M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, as well as about 2 thousand armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles). The Kingdom's Air Force has more than 260 combat aircraft (known about 152 F-15s, 81 Tornadoes and 32 Eurofighters). About 60 Dongfeng-2 ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers were purchased from China.
Is the battlefield Syria?
Military experts and orientalists doubt that Saudi Arabia and Iran will reach the stage at which an exchange of missile strikes will begin through the Persian Gulf and the main channel for transporting oil - the Strait of Hormuz, active operations of fleets, landings, etc. The transformation of the oil-bearing region into an arena of hostilities is obviously not beneficial to both countries - the Saudis (2nd place in terms of "black gold" reserves) and Iran (4th place).
“I don’t think that Saudi Arabia will not go to an open military conflict with Iran, since Iran has a fairly significant military potential,” Dolgov points out. "The conflict is not in the interests of Saudi Arabia, since it may develop not in favor of Riyadh (although the United States is behind the kingdom, there are American military advisers in the country)." “One should not assume that Saudi Arabia will directly attack Iran,” Baghdasarov agrees. In this case, the expert indicates:
"It can be assumed that a direct military clash is possible on the territory of Syria, more precisely, in the southern regions of this country, adjacent to the borders with Jordan and Iraq."
The interlocutor pointed out that both the Syrian government forces and the Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah (cooperating with Damascus, but traditionally oriented towards Tehran), and the pro-Iranian Shiite formations created in Syria itself are striving to control this region. On the other side of the front, part of the Syrian opposition is closely connected with Saudi Arabia - these groups are represented by the "Riyadh group" or the "Supreme Negotiating Committee".
Another vulnerable zone, according to Bagdasarov, is the Raqqa region. “The other day, Foreign Affairs Advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, former Foreign Minister of the country Ali Akbar Velayati, while in Lebanon, said that they would 'liberate Raqqa' - which was recently taken by the Syrian Democratic Forces,” the expert recalled. - And Saudi Arabia has already declared its support for the restoration of Raqqa, allocated funds for this, humanitarian aid to the SDF and the Kurdish Federation of Northern Syria. Here is a direct indication of a possible collision. "
Boris Dolgov believes that further escalation of the situation around Yemen can be expected: the closure of Yemeni ports by the Saudis, possibly some sabotage actions, with the continuation of political demarches such as the recent statement.
The execution in Saudi Arabia of 47 "terrorists", including the Shiite preacher Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, led to very serious consequences - now the entire region of the Middle East is on the verge of a regional war.
Moreover, what happened looks quite planned: the reaction of Iran and Iranian society was quite predictable, and the severing of diplomatic relations with the main Shiite country by the states of the Islamic Military Coalition (Saudi Arabia announced its creation in December 2015) seemed to be agreed upon in advance. At the moment, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan have already announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran, Kuwait has recalled the ambassador from Tehran. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain interrupted flights with Iran.
In fact, the indirect war between the "Sunni" and "Shiite" worlds is already in full swing - the main battlefields are Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Now there is a far from zero likelihood of a major regional war between the Shiites, led by Iran, and the Sunnis, with the leader in the form of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it will be interesting to assess the strengths of the parties and the scale of what could happen in such an extremely negative scenario.
Saudi Arabia - "a colossus with feet of clay"?
The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are equipped with the most modern military equipment and in sufficient quantity. The military budget of the country ranks 4th in the world, approaching $ 60 billion. The total number of the armed forces is 233 thousand people. The ground forces are armed with up to 450 modern American M1A2 Abrams tanks, about 400 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, more than 2,000 armored vehicles and armored personnel carriers, a large number of cannon and rocket artillery, including 50 American M270 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). In addition, the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia are armed with up to 60 Dongfeng-3 ballistic missiles purchased from China. Initially, they are designed to deliver nuclear weapons at distances of up to 2500 km, but in this case they carry high-explosive warheads, and the missile's hitting accuracy is very low. There are also rumors about the purchase of more modern Dongfeng-21.
As for the Air Force (Air Force), they are armed with 152 American F-15 fighters of various modifications, 81 European Tornado and 32 European Eurofighter Typhoon. Also in service are airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS) and a large number of military transport aircraft.
The air defense is strong - 16 batteries of Patriot PAC-2 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, numerous Hawk and Crotale air defense systems, hundreds of Stinger MANPADS, etc.
The naval forces are divided into 2 parts: the Western Fleet in the Red Sea and the Eastern Fleet in the Persian Gulf. In the Persian Gulf, there are 3 frigates of the Al Riyadh class (modernization of the French La Fayette) with anti-ship missiles (ASM) Exocet MM40 block II with a launch range of up to 72 km. In the Red Sea, there are 4 Al Madinah class frigates with Otomat Mk2 anti-ship missiles with a maximum launch range of up to 180 km, 4 American Badr-class corvettes with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Missile and patrol boats are evenly distributed across the fleets. As for the landing ships - there are 8 of them, and the maximum total landing can be up to 800 people at a time.
As we can see, the Armed Forces are impressively equipped, but there is one problem: despite such equipment and quantity, Saudi Arabia has not been able to achieve any serious success in neighboring Yemen for 10 months, in which they are opposed by an outdated Houthi rebel army. This shows how low the real combat capability of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces and their allies really is.
Iranian Armed Forces are the largest in the region
The Iranian Armed Forces have a number of 550 thousand people - the largest in the region. At the same time, the military budget in 2015 amounted to approximately $ 10 billion, which is quite small for such a number. In service there are more than 1600 tanks, of which about 480 are relatively modern T-72Z and 150 Zulfiqar tanks of its own production (presumably created on the basis of the T-72 and the American M60). Infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers are represented by hundreds of outdated and obsolete Soviet models, as well as artillery.
The Air Force is represented by a large number of aircraft of various classes and different countries of production. True, there are no new products among them, and the long sanctions period certainly affected the combat readiness of aviation - hardly more than 50% of them are in flight condition. They are armed with the American F-14 supersonic interceptors, the long-obsolete F-4 Phantom and F-5 Tiger fighters, and the French Mirage-F1. Of the Soviet vehicles, there are MiG-29 fighters, Su-24 front-line bombers, and Su-25 attack aircraft. In total, there are about 300 units of the above equipment.
As for the air defense system, fundamental changes are taking place here - a few years ago, short-range air defense systems Tor-M1 were purchased from Russia, and supplies of long-range air defense systems S-300PMU-2 began. Thus, very soon Iran will not yield to Saudi Arabia in this aspect.
As for the Navy, here the diversity is noticeably greater than that of Saudi Arabia. In addition, most of the ships are concentrated in the Persian Gulf (a small part of the ships are in the Caspian Sea). There are 3 submarines of Project 877 "Halibut", another 26 small submarines of local production carrying mines and torpedoes, 5 frigates, 6 corvettes (all of their own production), more than 50 missile boats (Chinese, Iranian and German production). Interestingly, all Iranian missile ships use Chinese-made anti-ship missiles - S-701 (range 35 km, anti-submarine) and YJ-82 (range up to 120 km).
Thus, Iran has an advantage over a potential adversary in terms of the Navy. In addition, as a result of many years of existence under economic sanctions, Iran has its own military-industrial complex - perhaps its products do not differ in any great characteristics, nevertheless, it provides the country with some independence from external supplies. The missile program has achieved quite great success - the country is armed with a number of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, etc. In total, their number can exceed 200-300 units.
The most likely scenario is a further increase in the intensity of the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The geographical location is not very conducive to the beginning of a direct military clash between the countries - Saudi Arabia and Iran do not border each other. Therefore, the parties are likely to increase their involvement in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This will not lead to anything good for these countries, but will only further prolong the ongoing hybrid wars in them. True, for Saudi Arabia, Yemen may turn out to be a "weak point" - despite the 150 thousandth ground grouping, 185 air units (including the allies), the operation against the Houthis does not lead to any results. The reason is both the very low combat capability of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces and the competent actions of the rebels, who are probably supported by Iranian specialists. If this support increases (technically, it is not easy, since Iran can only maintain communication with Yemen by sea), coupled with the presence of compact Shiites living in Saudi Arabia, such a situation could lead to disaster for Riyadh. In any case, such a scenario is a further stage of the war of attrition - a war that is also combined with the struggle for oil markets, as a result of which everyone increases the production of "black gold" and drives down prices on the stock exchanges. In this scenario, the side that "breaks down" earlier will lose.
Full-scale war - chaos for many years?
If, nevertheless, a full-scale war breaks out, then the main "battlefields" will be the Persian Gulf, and, probably, the territory of Iraq and Kuwait (they are located between Saudi Arabia and Iran). At the same time, Qatar is definitely an ally of the Saudis, and the current Iraqi authorities are allies of the Iranians. Despite the apparent preponderance of Saudi Arabia and its allies, Iran has several trump cards - it controls the Strait of Hormuz and does not have a war in the rear, near its borders (like Yemen for the Saudis). The Iranian Navy is quite capable of "shutting down" the strait for the passage of any enemy ships. Such a move will lead to economic disaster for the Gulf countries, which are part of the coalition against Iran, while the Iranians themselves will be able to continue exporting oil. In addition to stopping the flow of money from the sale of oil, which nevertheless is one way or another a temporary factor, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other Gulf countries may lose all their sales markets, which the United States, Russia and all the same Iran.
If the war drags on, it will have absolutely unpredictable results - both sides will strike each other with ballistic missiles (here Iran will cause more damage), try to "set fire" local opposition forces, set neighboring countries against each other. All this can finally destroy the Middle East that we know and in a few years lead to the formation of a completely different map of the region.
The most important question that arises is what such major Sunni allies of Saudi Arabia as Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey will do. Pakistan's direct involvement in the conflict seems extremely unlikely, since the country has an “old friend” in the person of India, and being distracted by major conflicts with someone else can be suicidal. Turkey can intensify its actions in Syria and Iraq, and, given the rather aggressive policy inherent in this country, intervene in the conflict. This could be of great help to the Saudis, but the Kurdish forces in Turkey may well seize the moment and strike from the inside. As for Egypt, the country is far enough from a possible theater of military operations and is unlikely to interfere more than it does now (at the moment the country is participating in the blockade of the Yemeni coast).
Recently, the Saudi media published a video about how they imagine the war with Iran. A day later, Al Riyadh newspaper hailed the film and said it provided a "realistic portrayal" of the war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
"The scenes in the video reflect the reality and prestige of the Saudi military, which is capable of containing foreign ambitions, especially Iranian threats," the newspaper writes. "It also outlines how the Saudi army manages its military system."
A video published on the website of the newspaper http://www.alriyadh.com/. Unfortunately, I could not find articles on the site, although I tried: very inconvenient navigation, and I do not understand Arabic either.
The story suggested in the video is just fine.
After Iranian combat boats for some reason attacked a civilian Saudi vessel in the Persian Gulf, it suddenly turned out that Saudi Arabia is strong! Iranian forces were instantly defeated, after which the offended Iran launched missiles.
Sir! Sir, we found rockets flying towards us!
Prepare "patriots"!
We see a lot of American-made Patriot air defense systems.
5, 4, 3, 2, 1, launch!
Bdysh, vigil, vigil! All enemy missiles have been destroyed!
Now is the time for them to pay for the attack! - the general at the headquarters sounded in good English. - Let the planes work on them!
Under the heroic music, "Typhoons" and "F-15" are shown, which fly in orderly rows to visit the enemy, as well as "Awax", who immediately notices the enemy aviation. Bang, bang, bang, and the enemy aviation is defeated!
Further on the enemy launch ballistic missiles "East Wind", judging by the inscriptions on the video, capable of covering up to 12 thousand kilometers. They launch them in large wholesale, and then show the results of their application accompanied by epic music.
Bushehr nuclear power plant: vigil, vigil, vigil, destroyed! The neighbors will be delighted when a peaceful atom from a destroyed power plant arrives to visit them =)
In a couple of seconds, a Saudi ballistic missile will destroy a nuclear power plant. It's good that only in the fantasies of the author
Badr airbase: spent! Dozens of planes, somehow standing on the ground while the war is in full swing, are engulfing the flames of righteous Saudi anger.
Further into the battle is a heroic landing, throwing out many tanks on the coast of Iran. A steel avalanche at a speed of 67 kilometers per hour squeezes the territory away from the foe, thousands of parachutists help her in this.
Arrest of Iranian President in Saudi Dreams
In the process, the latter falls to his knees and trembles violently, and from the shock of an explosion that happened somewhere nearby, portraits of the ayatollahs fall from the wall.
At this time, leaflets are scattered from the planes “Peace be with you! We are with you! " with the image of doves. Well, of course the world, especially after the destruction of a nuclear power plant nearby =). The Iranian people greet the "liberators" with jubilation and flowers.
Peaceful Saudi Flyer
It is quite obvious why everyone, including states, likes to see themselves strong. But let's look at the real “successes” of the Saudi military.
The video does not lie, the army has a lot of American weapons and equipment, but this does not always help. For example, the Yemeni Houthis recently launched a single ballistic missile into Saudi Arabia that was not shot down by vaunted American air defenses. Having flown about 900 kilometers, the warhead successfully landed less than a kilometer from the terminal of King Khalid International Airport. True, it was not the Saudis who admitted this, but the Americans. What will happen in the event of a massive missile strike by Iran if the air defense is not capable of intercepting even a single target?
We can see the strength of the Saudi army from the war in Yemen. Yes, the Saudis are great at bombing weddings and exterminating the civilian population of Yemen with the conscientious silence of the UN and the most exclusive nation. But with the military successes against the Houthis, the Saudi coalition is sad.
The tank is somewhat depressed ...
During the intervention, the coalition lost in the air 8 aircraft, mostly lost for technical reasons, as well as at least 14 helicopters. The losses of the invaders in manpower are kept silent, it is only known that at the end of September at least 412 Sudanese soldiers were killed in Yemen. Saudi Arabia lost at least 42 tanks during the conflict, the total losses in armored vehicles exceed 300 vehicles. The UAE has lost at least 150 armored vehicles. The total losses of the invaders in manpower are estimated at thousands of servicemen.
A small victorious war turned into a big problem for Riyadh. Despite huge funding, the "advanced army of the world" was not only unable to take control of the territory of Yemen, but also to defend its territory from Houthi raids and missile attacks by the Yemeni army.
And rather than dream of throwing caps at Iran, wouldn't it be better for the Saudis to think about the reasons for their “successes” in the fight against a much weaker enemy? Well, to do more peaceful affairs, removing their thugs from both Yemen and Syria.
