The situation in the East remains tense. What is really happening in Syria now in 2018 is covered by all the world news. The civil confrontation that began in 2011 escalated into a real war. Majority large countries somehow involved in the conflict. Based on the latest news, there is no talk of imminent reconciliation.
Chemical strike
In early April, a chemical attack was carried out on the province of Idlib. A video recording of footage from the scene of the attack spread throughout the Internet. The world media immediately reported the deaths of civilians. The West immediately accused the Assad regime of involvement in this attack. In turn, the Syrian government does not admit its guilt; moreover, it questions the chemical strike itself. The government says operations have been carried out to destroy terrorist ammunition depots. It is possible that chemical weapons were also stored in these warehouses.
On April 9, a meeting of the UN Security Council was urgently convened. The meeting was attended by representatives of the United States and 8 other countries, who spoke sharply about the situation in Syria. It is worth noting that French President Macron warned at the beginning of March about the impossibility of using chemical weapons. His address stated that if it was used, France would retaliate against Syrian territory.
Several prominent Republicans and Trump have called for action. The US government was considering the option of withdrawing American troops from Syria.
In an appeal to the president, parliamentarians recommended that he reconsider this issue. Meanwhile, Trump himself blamed the Kremlin for the victims of the chemical attack. According to him, part of the blame lies with Russia due to the fact that it supports the policies of Bashar al-Assad.
Donald Trump believes that his predecessor, Barack Obama, is also to blame for what happened. In his Twitter appeal, he argues that Obama should have crossed the line and ended the "Syrian disaster." The US President is confident that he will not make the same mistake and will see the matter through to the end.
Meanwhile, the Syrian government and its allies are responding to Western attacks. The Iranian Foreign Minister is confident that the statement by the United States and European countries is a conspiracy against the regime in Syria. His address says that the West makes its statements in order to be able to strike at Syrian territory.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an appeal calling the Western statement a provocation and a cover for terrorists.
It is necessary to prove that what is actually happening in Syria now, according to the news of 2018, is the work of the state government. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that it has irrefutable evidence that Great Britain is involved in organizing a provocation in Syria.
The West has begun to act
To be able to retaliate with a strike against Syria, the West must prove the existence of a chemical attack and the involvement of the Assad regime in it. Without waiting for the results of the audit, the US President ordered a strike on CAP. stated that the video of the chemical attack is evidence of a violation of the agreements that were signed in 2017. Great Britain and France are joining the ongoing operation. The missile strike on Syria was carried out on April 14 at 4.50.
110 missiles were aimed at both military and civilian targets. The military selected targets that were declared to be ammunition depots and chemical weapons development sites. Syrian troops independently repulsed the missiles with their air defense systems. It is known that the territories that are under the protection of the Russian military were not shelled.
The rocket attack lasted for an hour. But already at 7 am the residents of Damascus came out to a rally. With their spontaneous action, they decided to demonstrate that they will continue to fight against ISIS terrorists.
At the same time, most world powers supported the actions of the United States and allies. The governments of Canada and Turkey expressed their approval. Russia and a number of other countries expressed condemnation. The Kremlin demands that the issue of the legality of Trump’s actions be resolved at a UN meeting. Also by latest news, what is happening in Syria now, in April 2018, was actually condemned by US congressmen. By his actions, Donald Trump violated the American Constitution. By law, the president had to obtain the consent of the majority of parliamentarians before starting shelling of Syria.
Trump himself said in his order that the strike on Syria should be so powerful that it would affect the state’s allies, Russia and Iran. According to official information, 3 people died from the impact. It has been officially confirmed that Syria was warned of the impending attack. Therefore, it was possible to reduce the number of victims to a minimum. Missile strikes were carried out on empty objects.
In Syria last Friday, February 9, several hundred military personnel were killed in one day, but data on the exact number of deaths varies. Viktor Shevchuk writes about this for the Russkiy Mir publication.
Thus, according to some, more than 600 Russian military personnel (military contractors allegedly from PMCs) died, according to others - more than 200. To date, it has been possible to piece together quite a large amount of information about the events and the consequences of direct fire contact between the Russian military and the American army. According to the latest data, the coalition forces suffered no losses as a result of the conflict.
1. What was the point of the attack on the Kurdish positions in the Euphrates region?
Most likely, the main target of the attack by mixed Russian-Assad units was the oil-bearing region in South-West Syria, in which Russia has long been interested. The fact is that despite the fact that Assad and the Kremlin, together with Iran, control approximately 40-50% of the territory of Syria, they have no economic opportunity to compensate for the costs of the war, and most importantly, there are no resources to restore the completely destroyed territory that they control. Thus, the Kremlin came up with the idea of occupying oil-bearing areas 80 kilometers from Deir ez-Zor, where it is possible in the future that Rosneft and Gazprom will be able to expand their activities. However, just a few days before the Russian military moved into this area, the territory was taken under control by the Syrian opposition, which is part of an anti-terrorist coalition with the US military. There were also American military advisers in the ranks of the forces of the democratic Syrian opposition, including on the front lines.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin decided to “test the area” and seize the territory in case of weak opposition. The operation was prepared at first demonstratively, and after the bridge across the Euphrates, built by the Russian military, was also demonstratively destroyed, the accumulation of large forces for the offensive began.
2. How the operation of Russian troops in Syria developed.
General Hassan, commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the region, points to a spot on a map east of the city of Deir ez-Zor, 80 kilometers southeast of here, where he says there are pro-regime tanks and artillery President Bashar al-Assad began advancing Wednesday evening toward the headquarters occupied by his forces and U.S. Special Operations Forces advisers (Hassan, like some other senior Kurdish commanders, does not give his full name).
According to Hasan, he received intelligence information about the preparation of an offensive by pro-regime forces. At 9:30 pm on Wednesday, about half an hour before the offensive began, he called a Russian liaison officer in Deir ez-Zor, with whom he is in contact, in the hope that he could stop the operation.
“We said that there was a certain movement going on and that we would not want to attack the participants in these actions. They (the Russians) did not accept our proposal, they denied everything and said that nothing was happening,” Hasan said through an interpreter.
He spoke with several reporters who arrived here on Thursday with Maj. Gen. James Jarrard, who oversees U.S. special operations forces in Syria and Iraq.
American officers made a similar attempt aimed at preventing clashes. As highlighted in Thursday's Pentagon statement, "coalition officials were in constant contact with their Russian counterparts before, during and after" the offensive. “The Russian military has assured coalition officials that they will not attack nearby coalition forces,” the statement said.
According to Hasan, the attack began around 22:00, and pro-regime formations began to advance under the cover of volleys of tank and artillery pieces, whose shells exploded approximately 450 meters from the positions occupied by the Syrian Democratic Forces and American soldiers.
In total, one battalion-tactical group was allegedly initially involved in the attack, which included more than 10 tanks and about three dozen units of other armored vehicles. After the American military retreated from the forward positions, the Russians decided to develop the offensive and bring into action a second, reserve battalion-tactical group, the exact number of which is unknown.
The US Air Force responded to this threat with devastating strikes, initially with high-precision artillery and possibly, judging by eyewitnesses, the use of HIMARS (English High Mobility Artillery Rocket System - pron. Haymars) - an American highly mobile missile and artillery system for operational-tactical purposes. These are missiles that can fly up to 200 km in five minutes and destroy up to 50 targets in one salvo with precision-guided ammunition. Most likely, it was with the help of this system that Russian artillery covering batteries were destroyed, and the drones were used only for target designation of fire. After the destruction of the enemy artillery, as well as the operational formations of the Russians and Assadites, a blow was struck to the rear units, which were actually destroyed on the march by the second BTG.
At the same time, the electronic warfare system operated, completely suppressing communications in operational formations, which explains that it was possible to obtain a transcript of the conversations of the rear groups. The air was probably controlled by two pairs (as usual) of F22 Raptors, monitoring the possible appearance of Russian aviation in a given area.
In the midst of the carnage, Hassan said, a Russian liaison officer called him again and asked him to stop fighting for a while so he could pick up the dead and wounded in an offensive he denied. The Kurdish commander saw this as treachery.
“We don’t trust the Russians anymore,” Hasan said.
And when one reporter noted the irony of the situation - a Russian officer first denies carrying out an attack and then asks for a ceasefire - Hassan said: “It’s funny that a superpower doesn’t know what its forces are doing on the ground.”
Approximately two hours after the counterattacks, 80% of all Russian and Assadite forces were destroyed. Now the “flea hunt” began - using the “anti-guerrilla” AC130 and two pairs of attack helicopters, the Americans, under the cover of the F22, finally cleared the enemy’s offensive area.
You can roughly see how this happens in the video below:
The total losses of the Russian Federation and Assad amounted to up to 90% of all equipment and 70-80% of manpower. The American military emerged from the battle, in all likelihood, without losses. The entire operation lasted about six hours.
3. Why do the data on Russian casualties differ?
The main reason is the complete secrecy of information from the beginning of the operation by the Russian Army until its completion. In addition, there were two battalion tactical groups. Probably in the first one (on the line of contact) 217 Russians (mercenaries from PMCs) died. The second group was defeated on the march (at least three companies of Russians). Hence the difference in assessment - from 217 to 640 Russian military personnel. It must be said that in reality, the coalition forces completely destroyed not only the forward group, but also the artillery support group, as well as the rear group, including the operational headquarters that commanded the offensive.
4. What is PMC “Wagner” and why do they write that they were the only ones who died?
PMC “Wagner” is a camouflage name for the most combat-ready Russian units in Syria, the so-called “Ichtamnets”. These are detachments of assault special forces, which previously actively fought in Ukraine, and now in Syria. Before the offensive, Russian military personnel from these units hand over their passports, military identification cards, and change into the uniform of Assad’s troops. In reality, they are all professional Russian military contractors. The coalition is well aware of this and monitors their movements constantly.
5. What are the consequences of this operation for the Kremlin and the coalition?
It must be said that the complete destruction of the Russian military group by American forces in Syria in the first hours caused a shock both at the headquarters of the Russian troops in Syria and in the Kremlin subsequently. What was unexpected was not only the fact that the Americans responded to the Kremlin’s challenge in the oil-bearing region of Syria, but also the power with which they responded. It is estimated that Russian units destroyed in southern Syria accounted for about 20% of all Russian assault forces. They were destroyed in a few hours. Within a few hours, the American side announced from official sources that it had destroyed Assad’s forces during their attack on coalition positions. They also stated that they knew nothing about any “Russian ichtamnets” in this area. A day later, about 150 wounded Russians were flown to Russia on two planes. Some of the wounded were left on the territory of Russian air bases in Syria.
The Kremlin refrained from a clear response, expressing only “deep concern” about the current situation in southern Syria. Most likely in in the near future Russia will refrain from carrying out any operations in the direction of coalition troops, having learned a cruel lesson. According to experts, in the event of a conflict with the coalition, Russia could lose all its bases in Syria within three days.
A day after the events in the Deir ez-Zor area, an active operation of the Israeli army began in the Damascus area. Having discovered an Iranian-made drone in its airspace, the Israeli army shot it down and then launched a massive strike on military installations of Hezbollah and Assad’s forces. Then, after the loss of one of its aircraft (presumably shot down by the S-300 air defense system), Israel destroyed eight air defense batteries simultaneously in the Damascus area with a massive strike.
Conclusions.
It is likely that in the near future military operations in Syria will intensify mainly in the central regions. The situation around the Russian military group will deteriorate significantly in the coming months, which could lead, if clear agreements are not reached, to its evacuation in the middle or end of the year, as well as the annihilation of the Assad regime subsequently.
The US Army has proven its overwhelming superiority in this theater of operations. Starting from technical superiority and ending with methods of combat and command and control. The Russian troops prepared and carried out a completely mediocre and senseless operation, which was identified at the planning stage. In addition, the Russian army is not capable of conducting night offensive operations - the troops of the Assadites and Russians were shot virtually as if in a shooting range, and with the latter completely losing orientation.
Here is a transcript of the radio exchange on this matter. The Russian media are silent on this matter, since the President of the Russian Federation has already officially announced that a final victory has been won in Syria and therefore there should be no casualties.
The information was taken from the WarGonzo Telegram channel, which is run by military correspondent Semyon Pegov...
Voice 1: “...In short, this is the fuck@th time we’ve been fucked, that’s in short. In one company there were 200 people, 200 people right away, in another there were 10 people, and I don’t know about the third, but there they were also disheveled very badly, in short, three companies suffered, so they beat the Pindos, at first they covered the fuck with artillery and then they raised 4 turntables and launched them into the carousel, in short, from large-caliber machine guns, in short, in short, ours had nothing at all except machine guns, well, not to mention some kind of man-portable air defense system, and so on , in short, they finally disheveled it there, well, they created hell there and the Pindos specifically and clearly knew fuck@y that it was we who were coming, our Russians were coming to squeeze out the factory, and they were sitting at this plant, in short, in short, we finally got some hard fucks right now The boys called me back, fuck they’re sitting there drinking, in short, there’s a lot of really fucking missing people, well, that’s in short, it’s fucked up, there’s another fucking humiliation and well, in short, with us, fuck @ nuniktovo generally, fuck @ I don’t even think about how they treated the devils, I think that our people will now f*ck our government and no one will do anything in response and no one will destroy anyone. For this, fuck these losses we have!”
Voice 2: “Brother, look. There are 177 killed there - only the 5th company. 2 was practically not caught. In short, the entire 5th was destroyed, they were crushed there by aviation, helicopters, artillery, and the Kurds and the Americans trampled on them, the boys simply had no chance, almost all of the 5th fell. Here are the remains of the heavy ones, now “Tulip” will come at night today, we will meet them then. Come on, get in touch. Viktorovich, too, in my opinion, if found, is also minus.”
Voice 3: “In short, the guy just called back, they lined up in a column, they didn’t get to these three hundred, fucking seven hundred meters, he says, to the positions, one platoon went forward, and these, the column, stood. They didn't get as far as three hundred meters. These American flags were raised and the art started to kick hard at them, and then the turntables flew up and started fucking everyone, so they were running... Now the guy called back - a total of 215 “two hundredths”, it seems like that, in short they just rolled out hard... They designated ourselves... What did our people even hope for? Like they'll fuck themselves? Will they be scared? Who the hell knows... In short, it's such bullshit... They can't identify someone at all, the people there don't give a damn. They just fucked a standing column with artillery, the infantry didn’t even move forward, they just fucked with artillery, and that’s it, fucked up.”
Earlier it was reported that two KamAZ trucks from Syria were the corpses of Russian mercenaries.
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Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /var/www/site/data/www/site/wp-content/themes/vf2/single.php on line 236The basic law of history says: “If something happens somewhere, it means there were prerequisites for it.”
Any historian, observing the events of the past, clearly sees the inevitability, inevitability of certain global changes, and, paradoxically, this inevitability consists of a million insignificant, optional and secondary details that, chaotically fussing and pushing, roll the wheel of history along the only possible track .
The Syrian conflict, in which our country has recently been sitting on its feet, traces its origins back to the times of the Hyksos and Hittites, from ancient bronze knives, for Syria is one of the oldest habitats of mankind, part of its Mediterranean cradle, rich in movement. The ancient Jews and the first apostles hung around here, the Babylonians and Persians wandered around, the crusaders butted heads with Saladin, many peoples, cultures and ideas were born here.
So, as they say, dig, do not dig. And, in order not to get completely bogged down, let’s pretend that all this doesn’t interest us at all, and let’s turn straight to the collapse of the Ottoman Porte.
We are so different, and yet we are together
Sultan Saladin (Salah ad-Din)
The huge empire preserved by Allah, which united most of the Arab and Turkic worlds, died in the 20s of the 20th century (and this was, perhaps, the main result of the First World War, which left the horns and legs of several empires at once).
The winners tried their best to make everyone look good. The borders of new states were drawn at headquarters along a line, ancient thousand-year conflict points were ignored, abscesses were opened without anesthesia. In 1922–1926, the area designated as Syria officially came under the French mandate. The French promised to put the territory in order, approve the law here and provide the new power with autonomous navigation in the near future.
At the same time, the population new country was not just a multinational rug - that would not be so bad. It was a rug, many of the patches of which sincerely and ardently hated the neighboring patches. Under the pressure of the very illiberal Ottoman Empire, all this somehow still coexisted, although not without problems, but in independent Syria, cooperation was a big question. Judge for yourself.
Muslims, Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians coexisted here. Religions, as we all know, are extremely tolerant of each other.
Armenians, Turks, Arabs and Jews lived here side by side. Guess how they got along with each other.
There were many Kurds here. The Kurds are a large (approximately 35 million people), although not very united, people who, after the fall of the Porte, did not get their own country, and were divided between Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. Since then, Kurds in these countries have been fighting for independence and the right to their own state. In Syria, the Kurdish issue is especially acute, given, for example, that the brilliant Saladin, the pillar of the local ancient statehood, the great ruler of Syrian antiquity, was precisely a Kurd, which, from the point of view of his fellow tribesmen, allows us to speak of Syria as an originally Kurdish state. Kurds in Syria make up about 15 percent of the population, but they are not united ethnically, linguistically, or religiously.
The Muslim majority in the country is also torn by conflicts, because in Syria there are three branches of Islam hostile to each other: Sunnis, Shiites and Alawites*. Sunni absolute majority, while power in Syria is in the hands of the Alawites. Considering that the overwhelming majority of Sunnis sincerely consider Alawites to be children of Satan, heretics and not Muslims at all, we understand how things turned out in the wonderful state of Syria. Yazidis and Druze, ethno-confessional groups, also live here. They have serious difficulties in relations with all other religious groups, to the point that in 1953, for example, in Syria they even had to adopt a separate code of laws on family law - exclusively for the Druze, because they could not exist according to the same the rules by which other citizens live.
Add a few more pinches of traditional oriental spices to this salad:
- Inevitable authoritarianism of government in the virtual absence of self-government mechanisms.
- The undisputed right of private property and, as a consequence, confusion with property rights at all levels.
- Laws that are a sad attempt to marry Sharia with the Napoleonic Code.
- Social services are at the level of the baseboard and the level of education of the population is extremely low.
And now we understand which state was sent on an independent voyage in 1946, when the last French troops left the territory of Syria.
And now - a new revolution
The conflict in Syria is a world war in miniature
The history of independent Syria is, first of all, wars and coups. Firstly, Syria was one of the main participants in all the wars of the Arab states with Israel, and therefore part of its territory, the Golan Heights, was occupied by Israel and has remained under its control for over half a century. For several years, Syria was part of a single state with Egypt, then this entity disintegrated. Riots and uprisings broke out here regularly, and they were suppressed with the same cruelty with which the rebels acted. The Jewish pogroms stopped only after the death or emigration of almost all Syrian Jews. The Kurds systematically sought rights and autonomy - to no avail, but fiercely. Sunnis hunted Alawite officials at night. When the working day arrived, they sent the army in response and filled the prisons with protesters. The authorities took either Islamic or socialist doctrine as a model - and managed to nationalize what was already not the most successful Agriculture to the state of ruins.
The years 1963–1966 were the most fruitful for events: during this time, five events occurred in the country. coups d'etat. As a result of the latter, Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, a great friend of the Soviet Union, a socialist and a member of the Baath Party, came to power (remember that another famous chick of the Middle Eastern Baath was a certain Saddam Hussein from neighboring Iraq).
With the help of Soviet money and weapons, Syria fought a good fight with Israel and fought completely, took part much more successfully in the Lebanese campaign and gained Lebanon under its actual control, appeared in the Iran-Iraq conflict on the side of Iran - in general, it was not a peaceful and calm the country not a single year in its short history. Especially if you take into account the ongoing Sunni-Shiite-Alawite conflict within its borders, where everything happened in an adult way: with the suppression of rebellions by the army, massacres and thousands of victims both on the part of the rebels and on the part of the suppressors.
What now?
The conflict in Syria at the moment is a real world war in miniature, because as many as 29 states are involved in it, not counting other entities, and citizens of almost a hundred countries are fighting there. It all started because of bad weather.
After the death of the first Assad, his son Bashar came to power in 2000. In fact, he was going to become a doctor and studied incognito in London to become an ophthalmologist, but after Bashar’s elder brother, the presumptive heir to the Syrian presidential throne, died in a car accident, the guy was pulled out of the oculist’s paradise and, having been sent to study army work, was transformed in a few years to the colonel. Bashar was elected to the presidency, as usual, almost unanimously (97 percent of the vote) and began to continue his father’s work. And he, as we remember, was a classic eastern dictator with a socialist lining, so the life of the Syrians did not look particularly heavenly. Of course, there was not such violence as in Iraq, or such madness as in Libya under Gaddafi, but civil and economic freedoms were in a very unenviable state.
The country lived a little on thin oil, a little on tourism. Some timid private industry did not play a special role, since 75% of all enterprises and industries were state-owned, including all energy, transport, etc. Bashar al-Assad, however, supported some liberalization of the private sector, but mainly for the small business and farmers. The Internet was controlled, any opposition was rolled under the asphalt, the media did not dare to make a word, and for the dissatisfied there was always a not-so-righteous court and zealous intelligence services who were not lazy even to kidnap escaped oppositionists from abroad. Sometimes Islamists, some Muslim brothers, tested the fortress of power to the teeth - and received a powerful blow in this tooth, in connection with which Western screens began to be replete with images of bloodied Sunni children carried out from under the rubble of buildings.
Other children in compulsory primary school They told me what a wonderful president they had - they couldn’t breathe from the propaganda. And everything was more or less until a terrible drought began in 2006, which lasted five years. Syrian agriculture for the most part was in the hands of the state, and these hands, frankly speaking, did not grow from the most literate place in terms of agricultural technology.
The trouble was not even the lack of harvest, but the fact that during this catastrophe the arable land turned into a desert unsuitable for cultivation, the rise of which now required a lot of resources and time, not to mention the most complex technologies soil restoration.
The division into “Islamic terrorists” and “freedom-loving democrats” is very arbitrary here
Approximately a million Syrians were openly starving, several million more were on the verge of famine, ruined and desperate peasants poured into the cities, who lacked neither jobs in modest Syrian industries, nor housing, nor medical care. All they could eat was government news, which told them what efforts the dear President and the wonderful Ba'ath Party were making to cope with these minor difficulties.
For the first time in the history of Syria, Kurds and Yazidis, Arabs and Turkmen, Shiites and Sunnis, Christians and atheists felt themselves to be a single nation - united in their deepest hostility towards Mr. President and his colleagues and closely following what was happening in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, where respected presidents have recently flown away from their posts like migratory birds in the Arabian spring...
In general, all that remained was to bring a match.
The match was brought in March 2011, in the city of Daraa. Several teenagers from 10 to 18 years old were arrested there, who wrote all sorts of nasty things about the president, freedom and revolution on the walls. The boys were thoroughly beaten by the police, despite the fact that most of them belonged to the most important families in the city. A day later, Baath offices and police stations in Daraa went up in flames, armed clashes began, cellular communications were cut off in the city, the oppositionists created their own headquarters - in a word, it began.
For some time, the international community tried to ignore what was happening. In fact, no one wanted to get into Syria, because there were enough problems on this planet without Syria. Nevertheless, open war between the government and an increasingly intensified opposition violated dozens of international agreements, demanded the fulfillment of obligations and caused anxiety among Western voters. Not to mention the states of the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the Emirates, etc. These countries demanded an immediate and clear solution to the issue: they categorically did not want a real and protracted war in the region. And in general, they always supported the Sunni brothers who were suffering under the heel of the damned Alawites.
After futile attempts to solve the problem diplomatically, it became clear that more decisive action would have to be taken. For example, choose your side of the conflict.
Western countries had no choice about whom to support. It was in no way possible to openly support a dictator who came to power as a result of undoubtedly staged elections, who was clamping down on progress and freedom in the country, and who was practically convicted of supplying weapons to Hezbollah.
The dichotomy was as clear as three kopecks: on the one hand, the heroic people demanding rights; on the other, the tyrant and his minions bombing hospitals and kindergartens. And although everyone understood that the composition as a whole was much more complex and disgusting, there was nowhere to go.
Moreover, the Syrian opposition consisted not only of bearded men who demanded to blow up America and give each faithful four young virgin wives. There are also quite sane secular officers who sided with the people, some unfinished intelligentsia, moderate Muslims and other decent public.
So for now, NATO countries and their sympathizers are supporting the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCRFF) in their heroic fight against the Assad regime. This coalition more or less brings together forces with which the West can at least somehow come to an agreement.
But besides these decent oppositionists, there are forces in Syria next to which Assad looks like a flawless angel. The proximity of Iraq, where Islamists have long been fighting the official authorities, had an immediate impact. Take, for example, the group ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), banned in Russia, whose atrocities in Palmyra and other cities it captured forced even al-Qaeda to turn away from it. One of the first laws passed by ISIS was to allow Muslims to own slaves from among the Alawites, Yazidis and some Kurds, as well as to have sex with underage slaves. It’s been a long time since there have been societies in the vastness of the world that smash ancient cultural monuments with sledgehammers and march under the slogans “Let’s fuck children!”
In addition to ISIS, the country has several dozen more Islamist groups competing and cooperating with each other, including the well-known Jaish al-Muhajireen, formed mainly from Chechens and Tatars, as well as other mercenaries who arrived from the countries of the former USSR to help the Syrian jihad. It is already clear that a considerable part of the military and financial assistance that the international community provides to the NKSROS is flowing into the hands of the Islamists.
Russia, having come out in support of President Assad, officially announced that we will support him exclusively in the confrontation with ISIS and other ultra-Islamist groups. Assad, of course, is the elected and legitimate president, but so be it, let’s leave his fate to the mercy of history and the Syrian people. But ISIS is a terrorist nest that poses a threat to the whole world, and it must be destroyed. We sent aircraft, weapons and a number of military personnel there to prevent the emergence of a terrorist state dreaming of a worldwide caliphate.
In reality Russian troops, apparently, work in close connection with Assad’s special services and are quite actively attacking the positions of the opposition members of the NKSROS, which has already caused numerous protests from countries supporting this coalition. However, taking into account that it also includes some quite radical groups, we can admit that the division into “Islamist terrorists” and “freedom-loving democrats”, adopted in the Western press, is very arbitrary: often both of them, as they say, are “one and the same person."
Lovers of human hunting from all over the world are now coming to Syria. Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Israel are already seriously involved in the conflict, on whose borders regular excesses are now occurring. Millions of Syrians are fleeing their homes - countries in the Middle East, as well as Europe, are taking them in.
The uncontrolled proliferation of weapons in the region leads to the fact that the risk of a terrorist threat is increased to the maximum even in the safest regions of the planet.
And this war of all against all can have the most fatal consequences for those who are somehow involved in it. Here people are now being trained and educated who will blow up houses and factories on all meridians and parallels; here the preconditions are laid for even more global conflicts; Here, relatively speaking, there is a snaking crack along which the whole world could fall apart. Turkey and the Kurds, Azerbaijan and Armenia, Israel and Iran, Russia and NATO - hardly anyone can say which confrontation will be fatal. But the fact that the concentration of threats in this region now is no less than in the Balkans before the First World War - any historian will agree with this.
S. B. Ivanov
- The participation of Russian military personnel in the ground operation is not planned.
- The purpose of the operation in Syria is not the desire to divert attention from the situation in Ukraine.
S. V. Lavrov
- When we hear that Russia needs to take some steps, we need to remember a simple truth: we have done everything we promised.
- We have always advocated for the United States to work directly with the SAR authorities. We work daily with the Syrian authorities. Statistics clearly show that the main problems are created not by the regime, but by those terrorist extremist groups, of which there are a great number of which have proliferated in Syria and which do not obey any political opposition structure.
Russian military about Syria
A. V. Kartapolov
Head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Colonel General
- Our aviation strikes militant infrastructure based on information received through several intelligence channels, as well as from information center in Baghdad.
- The Russian side called on others to share any useful information about the objects of the ISIS group in Syria and Iraq.
- We must openly admit that today we receive such data only from our colleagues at the Center from Iran, Iraq and Syria. But we remain open to dialogue with all interested countries and will welcome any constructive contribution to this work.
A. I. Antonov
Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation
- We are interested in cooperation with all countries without exception. We established a direct telephone line with Turkey. We held consultations with Israel. Relations with states have intensified Persian Gulf. We are negotiating with our American partners to conclude an agreement on ensuring the safety of flights over Syria. But this is not enough. We propose much broader interaction, which Washington is not yet ready for.
It is naive to believe that the situation in the Middle East today is controlled by some global behind-the-scenes force that started the conflict in Syria, trying to achieve some of its secret interests. This is wrong. In the Middle East, it is primarily regional actors who sort things out among themselves.
Thus, three major Middle Eastern players were involved in the Syrian conflict. This Saudi Arabia, Iran and Türkiye. All other forces are secondary. However, they do not play the same game - each plays their own.
Saudi Arabia all last years is guided by a single goal - to become the undisputed leader of the entire Arab world. And in general, the country has indeed succeeded in achieving dominance in the Middle East in many ways, despite all the efforts of its rivals to prevent this.
Until 2011, Egypt was the main contender for leadership in the region, but the events of the Arab Spring left the country, which found itself in a very difficult economic situation, no chance.
On this wave, Qatar (in alliance with Turkey) decided to try its luck, achieving particular success in 2011-2012. In 2012, Mohammed Morsi, representing the Al-Ikhwan Al-Muslimun* movement, closely associated with Qatar and Turkey at that time, became the President of Egypt. A very real threat of dual Qatari-Turkish hegemony in the region began to loom before Saudi Arabia.
However, Saudi Arabia still outplayed Qatar, creating a coalition from all the countries of the Persian Gulf (except, of course, Qatar and, to some extent, pursuing a fairly independent policy of Oman), which jointly took away this very small but rich country, which had loudly declared itself during Arab Spring, in the background.
We must pay tribute to the skills of Saudi diplomats: the Egyptian military, Israel, the financial sharks of Dubai, the Egyptian Trotskyist leftists, the realist politicians of the United States, and even Russia acted as a united anti-Ikhwank-anti-Qatar front. In 2013, Morsi was overthrown by this extremely broad coalition, and the Muslim Brotherhood was defeated.
This effectively ended the Qatari intrigue in the Middle East. But this episode is important for another reason: Saudi Arabia then demonstrated to the whole world its ability to use external forces, among which, when the Arabs needed it, were the United States and, in certain episodes, Russia.
The current President of Egypt Al-Sisi, by the way, receives money from Saudi Arabia (as, incidentally, before that Morsi received money from Qatar), and as they say, he who pays the money calls the tune. Of course, there can be no talk of any independent policy for Egypt now.
Saudi Arabia’s main competitors in the Middle East today are Iran and Turkey, and the main axis of confrontation directly in Syria is certainly the Saudi-Iranian axis, which is further complicated by Turkish intervention.
It is usually said that Iran supports Damascus simply because it supports the Shiites in the fight against the Sunnis. Everything, of course, is much more complicated. For example, calling Yemeni Zaydis Shiites can be a stretch, but Alawites are generally representatives of a religion that cannot, strictly speaking, be considered Islam (I’m afraid that only representatives of the dedicated Alawite religious elite will agree with me on this in their hearts, ukkal, but not the uninitiated ordinary Alawite masses, jukhhal). And in Shiite educational institutions, until quite recently, they taught that a Shiite who shakes hands with an Alawite is obliged to undergo a certain purification rite before praying. I witnessed this myself.
But the Iranians showed miracles of wisdom in diplomacy, managing to forget the old ritual contradictions and creating a very broad coalition of movements that had not been considered Shiism for a very long time and which, due to external threats, are ready to join virtually anyone, forgetting the old differences.
By creating an “anti-Wahhabi” coalition, Iran pursued a very specific goal: to strengthen its position in the Arab world and create a counterbalance to Saudi Arabia.
Allies were needed, which Iran found primarily among the colossal Shia community in Iraq, the Shia majority population of Bahrain, in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia itself, Lebanon - a country of minorities where no group is a majority at all, the Houthis of Yemen and, of course, the Shiites, Alawites and generally non-Sunni Syrians, who for the most part in the current situation are on the side of Assad.
Also on the side of Iran is the abnormally strong Lebanese Hezbollah, which at one time withstood a direct confrontation with the most powerful militarily power - Israel, which was once capable of defeating several Arab states that were many times larger than it in six days. Hezbollah is one of the few forces in the region that supports the Assad regime and the Syrian Shiites sincerely, out of a sense of duty to its loyal allies. Largely because they found themselves in an extremely difficult situation, but, of course, also to fight for self-preservation, realizing that the fall of the Assad regime could catastrophically undermine the position of the Shiite community in Lebanon.
In general, many local residents, not without some reason, consider Lebanon and Syria to be one country. In the event of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Lebanon, the Sunnis would definitely strengthen, which is absolutely unacceptable for Hezbollah, so the decision to support the Syrian president was the only possible one for this most powerful fighting force in Lebanon.
But you still need to assess Iran’s strengths sensibly: having scattered groups of non-Sunni minorities as allies, achieving total dominance in the Middle East today is unrealistic. However, it is quite possible to create a tangible counterbalance to the regional dominance of Saudi Arabia, which is already a significant success.
Turkey's main interest in Syria is the Kurds, and for this reason its gross interference in the affairs of its neighbor was inevitable. At the same time, it would seem that Turkey’s absolutely illogical and barbaric first intervention in Syria on the side of Assad’s opponents was associated primarily with an attempt to strengthen its position as a regional leader, which Turkey claims on a par with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
It is important that there was no extraordinary tension between Turkey and the Assad regime before the Arab Spring, but in 2012 the Turks carried out a fundamentally incorrect political analysis, believing, like the rest of the world, with the exception of some experts, that the fall of the Assad regime is literally a question several days or at most weeks. Well, ignorance of the specifics of Syrian political culture took its toll.
It seemed to everyone that if several districts of the capital were occupied by the rebels, then the regime would inevitably come to an end. The Turks were preparing to divide the spoils and intervened, hoping to grab something from the remnants of Syria, ahead of Saudi Arabia in this. But the regime still did not fall.
And, of course, Turkish politicians could not help but take the chance to advertise themselves by supporting the Turks living on the northern border of the country. However, the important task now, as in 2012, is to wait for the collapse of Syria and grab our piece of the pie. The Turks cannot allow Syria to be divided between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although now the task of preventing the unification of the Kurdish lands into a single belt, which would generally take Turkey out of the “Syrian game”, has almost come to the fore for Turkey, and also raised the question of creating a Kurdish state, which could not but stimulate there is already an active movement for Kurdish independence in Turkey itself. In order to prevent the unification of the two Kurdish enclaves of Syria into one, the Turks are quite ready to enter into confrontation with IS* and occupy IS-controlled territories - the main thing is that the Kurds do not have time to occupy them.
Quite often, events occur in the Middle East that, if you think about it, do not correspond to the interests of Russia, the United States or Europe, but we are accustomed to looking at the East precisely through the prism of the interests of the West, not paying attention to the interests of macro-players in the region itself. The problem is that many of the events that seem inexplicable to us often fully correspond to the interests of the Middle Eastern powers.
Russia is acting in Syria at the invitation of Assad. The Americans invited themselves. And most often it turns out that through the hands of the United States, local actors who are dividing spheres of influence are trying to achieve their own goals.
The Americans probably began to guess about this, but if so, then now they can no longer just up and leave Syria. This would mean a complete loss of face. Therefore, they are forced to help Middle Eastern players divide Syria among themselves, hiding behind their own national interests, which the United States, of course, does not have in Syria.
Now, for example, they are doing a good job of playing along with the interests of the Syrian Kurds, among whom, by the way, a party of openly leftist orientation dominates, as a result of which American special forces often have to conduct combat operations in special clothing with almost communist symbols...
2015.10.12, 01:03 2693
Frontline of the world. What's there in Syria?
The future of the world is now being shaped in Syria. Let's look at what's happening there today and how what's happening will affect tomorrow.
Firstly, the “democrats” dropped their peacekeeper masks. NATO fighters carried out an airstrike on the positions of Kurdish militias fighting against ISIS
The incident occurred the day before in Raqqa province. A pair of unknown fighter jets carried out an airstrike on a former Kurdish militia camp. The incident occurred the day before in Raqqa province. The commander of the Kurdish militia reported this under conditions of strict anonymity.
"The silhouettes of two aircraft with a distinctive delta wing and single fin were seen by militias in the sky above their positions on Friday evening,"- he said.
According to the TASS agency, it was these planes that dropped aerial bombs several kilometers from the militia camp that they abandoned in the summer. The airstrike destroyed several buildings.
As the Russian Spring portal notes, it is absolutely clear that the planes belonged to the North Atlantic Alliance. In all likelihood, these were the French Dessault Rafael, which, according to the official version, last night attacked the positions of Islamic State militants in Syria.
The Syrian media are convinced: “NATO planes are bombing SAR positions and the country’s infrastructure.” Yesterday, NATO aircraft illegally flew into air space Syria, destroyed two electrical substations in the province of Aleppo. At the moment, all the details of the incident are being clarified.
Aleppo is uneasy; fighting has been going on for two days now between Islamic State militants and Syrian government forces. It became known that through an active assault, the terrorists were able to capture several populated areas. There has been no official confirmation of this information yet, Russian media write.
Such anomalous activity of the Islamic State at the front is most likely due to shelling by Turkish and US aircraft of the positions of the Syrian Arab Army, says SearchNews.
The SAA headquarters reports that two Turkish NATO aircraft, with transponders turned off and without permission to fly into Syrian airspace, bombed two electrical substations in the village of Ridwaniya (Ryan) in Aleppo province. As a result, the entire area was left without electricity, which is why hospitals and water supply companies cannot function normally.
Let us remind you that this is not the first time that NATO aircraft have opened fire on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
It is interesting that NATO aviation used similar tactics in Libya, then the infrastructure was also destroyed, and later a no-fly zone was introduced over the country. Such events caused extreme discontent among the population, and the flow of refugees decreased.
The answer was not long in coming. An SU-24 bomber destroyed a building containing IS leaders with a direct hit.
Su-24M aircraft in the area settlement Salma destroyed the field headquarters of the IS forces. It was he who coordinated the actions of militants in the province of Latakia.
“As a result of a direct hit from a KAB-500 guided bomb, the building in which the militant leaders were hiding was completely destroyed. Five all-terrain vehicles equipped with ZU-23 installations located next to this facility were also destroyed,”– reported the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In addition, the military department reported, more than fifty fortified areas and defensive positions, four terrorist training camps, seven ammunition depots, and one field command post were destroyed.
Over the past 24 hours, Russian combat aircraft taking off from the Khmeimim airbase destroyed IS positions in the provinces of Hama, Latakia, Idlib and Raqqa, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.
He clarified that the Russian Aerospace Forces carried out strikes on 63 targets of the Islamic State terrorist group. The militants panic and demand urgent reinforcements.
And today the Syrian army has taken the city of Atshan (Achan) and continues to advance to strategic heights, trying to trap the terrorists in a cauldron.
This was reported to Russian Spring by a native of Donbass with the call sign “Timur”, who is now in the Kurdish militia and is responsible for coordinating actions with the Syrian army.
“According to preliminary data, the city of Atshan has been liberated from terrorists. Currently, the Syrian military is attacking the heights behind Khan Sheikhoun to cut the road and close the Kefer-Zaity cauldron,”- said Timur.
In the video filmed by terrorists near Atshan, you can see an attempt by militants to repel an attack by the Syrian army.
The Syrian army has liberated the city of Ashtan from terrorists and is closing ISIS in the cauldron
People knowledgeable in weapons are anticipating: “Well, it’s about to begin.” Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A “Solntsepek” have arrived in Syria.
Indeed, heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" arrived in Syria from Russia, as evidenced by those located in in social networks photographs taken by Syrian bloggers. This is a terrible weapon, the power of which has already been felt by ISIS militants operating in Iraq, when the Russian Federation delivered a batch of TOS-1A to the Iraqi army. Now the Syrian Armed Forces have similar systems, which plan to launch a large-scale offensive against Islamist positions in the north of the country in the coming weeks.
The number of flamethrower systems located in Syria is still unknown.
TOS-1A "Solntsepek" is a formidable modern weapon that effectively destroys enemy personnel, firing positions and disables armored vehicles.
The heavy flamethrower system fires unguided thermobaric rockets. The ammunition releases a cloud of flammable gas and then detonates it, causing all the oxygen in the cloud to react. After instantaneous detonation, the pressure rises sharply and also drops sharply below atmospheric pressure by 160 mm Hg.
Even if the enemy manages to survive the explosion, the pressure drop leads to his guaranteed immediate death from rupture of internal organs. TOS "Solntsepek" has high accuracy salvo firing, which is ensured by direct aiming of the launcher and automated guidance to a target located at a distance of up to 6 km.
"Solntsepek" is in service with the radiation, chemical and biological defense troops Russian Army since April 2001.
Specialization of the TOS-1A "Solntsepek" is the defeat of enemy personnel, open and closed firing positions in various types offensive and defensive battle, disabling armored vehicles.
photo promportalndg.ru, S.M.T.
Syrian militants are screaming in fear as they observe the use of modern weapons against ISIS units.
Russian helicopters in Syria are also involved in airstrikes against IS strongholds. TV channel "Russia24" spoke about this for the first time. In addition, the channel showed a video from the Syrian military, filmed at the time of air strikes carried out by Russian helicopters. Earlier, Igor Klimov, a representative of the Russian Aerospace Forces, mentioned the helicopters stationed in Syria: the MI-24 attack helicopters, as well as the Mi-8AMTSh transport and combat helicopters.
The first victories are won by the Syrian army with the support of Russian aviation. Islamic radicals have been driven out of Al-Bakhsa (100 km southeast of Latakia, Hama Province), General Samir Suleiman, head of the political department of the Syrian army, shared information with journalists. Before this, from the beginning of August, the city of Bakhsa was under the control of militants from the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda* - the al-Nusra Front*. Suleiman emphasized that experienced militants who had gone through the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan stood in Bakhsa, but they retreated, afraid of targeted strikes by Russian aircraft.
The fight against terrorism in Syria is in full swing, the Kyn Valley has been liberated from IS. Judging by the latest news, it becomes clear that everything is not in vain!
These territories are located near the border with Turkey and 20 kilometers from the city of Idlib, where, according to the Syrian army, the largest number of terrorists are concentrated. In the liberated valley, areas are now being cleared after airstrikes; in previously residential settlements, there could be snipers in underground shelters and mined areas.
In general, the combined Russian and Syrian military are good and effective in defeating terrorists. Although it is slow and difficult, there are results. Terrorists are losing positions, people, equipment and infrastructure.
If this continues, if no one interferes or distracts, then soon through joint efforts it will be possible to clear the border with Turkey, liberate Idlib and several cities that have long been surrounded and advance towards Aleppo. And then, lo and behold, the resources of al-Nusra and other groups will dry up, and we will completely exterminate the ISIS terrorists.
ISIS rats are hiding in holes. This is evidenced by the summary of combat operations of the air group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria dated October 10
Over the past 24 hours, the Russian air group in the Syrian Arab Republic continued to strike the infrastructure of the terrorist group ISIS. Su-34, Su-24M and Su-25SM aircraft carried out 64 combat sorties from the Khmeimim airbase against 55 ISIS targets. The increase in the intensity of combat sorties by our aviation is associated with a significant increase in the number of ground targets identified by air and space reconnaissance throughout the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.
On initial stage operations, our planes destroyed the main and largest logistics hubs of the terrorist group ISIS. This led to a significant reduction in the combat potential of the gangs, a decrease in their mobility and ability to conduct offensive operations.
According to radio intercepts, the militants are experiencing an acute shortage of weapons, ammunition and fuel and lubricants. Some militants are demoralized and are actively leaving the combat areas, moving in eastern and northeastern directions across the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic. Therefore, at present, throughout almost the entire territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, we are recording an active redeployment of weapons, military equipment and vehicles with ammunition, aimed at urgently restoring the combat capability of existing gangs of the terrorist group ISIS
The main targets of destruction over the past 24 hours were command posts and communications centers of militants, weapons and ammunition depots, bases and terrorist training camps in the provinces of RAQQA, HAMA, DAMASCUS and ALEPPO.
Su-24M bombers struck a large fortified area of militants east of the village. TEL ALAM, ALEPPO Province. At this site there were pre-equipped firing points, mortar artillery positions, as well as buried ammunition and food warehouses. As a result of a direct hit from a BETAB-500 aerial bomb, an explosion of ammunition occurred, and that’s all engineering structures terrorists were destroyed.
In the area of the village of KWEIZER, ALEPPO province, a Su-24M aircraft struck a military equipment base of militants. As a result of a direct hit, more than 10 pieces of equipment were destroyed, including 2 tanks and 5 infantry fighting vehicles. A fire started, the shelters in which the equipment was located were completely destroyed.
Our reconnaissance through several channels uncovered a disguised command post for gangs in the mountainous and forested area of IDLib province. After analyzing satellite images of the area and conducting aerial reconnaissance with unmanned aircraft a targeted air strike was carried out on the facility. Objective control data confirms the destruction of the protective structures in which the control center was located, as well as the destruction of three units of militant vehicles.
As a result of the actions of our air group, within 24 hours the following were destroyed: 2 militant command posts; ammunition depot in Hama province; 29 terrorist field camps; 23 fortified points and defensive positions with weapons and military equipment.
The Russian Defense Ministry continues to actively work to expand contacts with foreign colleagues. A draft joint interdepartmental document has been prepared on measures to prevent possible incidents in Syrian airspace between military aircraft of Russia and the US-led coalition. This project was promptly sent through established communication channels to the American side. Russian experts are ready to discuss the draft of this document with Pentagon representatives.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also noted: “Demands from IS commanders to replenish weapons reserves have been recorded.” The militants also announced the need to transfer reinforcements from Syrian Raqqa.
“The demands of field commanders to higher headquarters for the urgent replenishment of reserves of ammunition and weapons destroyed by Russian aviation, and the transfer of reinforcements from the province of Raqqa to hold their positions were recorded,”- said the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi Air Force attacked a convoy of cars, one of which contained ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
The Egyptian newspaper Akhbar is disseminating information that Iraqi aircraft, after receiving information from the Baghdad anti-terrorism coordination center, attacked a convoy of cars, one of which contained the leader of the Islamic State militants Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Iraqi aircraft struck the motorcade of the leader of a terrorist group in Anbar province. It is reported that al-Baghdadi's motorcade was moving several kilometers from the border with Syria. So far, nothing is known about the fate of the leader of the terrorist group. But it is known that after an airstrike carried out by Iraqi aircraft, American coalition aircraft took off into the air, which, according to Reuters, carried out a series of strikes (the report says seven) in the area of the city of Ramadi - the administrative center of Anbar province, in which Islamic State militants are now operating. For reference: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (real name - Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Husseini al-Samarrai) appeared in international reports back in 2003, when he headed the Iraqi cell of al-Qaeda. In 2005, al-Baghdadi was captured by the Americans and placed in the CIA special prison Camp Bocca. In a special prison, al-Baghdadi met with the commander of American forces in Iraq, Petraeus, who headed the CIA in 2010. In 2009, al-Baghdadi was released "due to the closure of a CIA prison in Iraq." Four years later, al-Baghdadi declared himself “caliph of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.”
Meanwhile, Iran has announced its readiness to launch airstrikes on US military bases. The Iranian government emphasized that it is ready to use missiles to protect the legitimate power of Bashar al-Assad.
The reason for this was the aggravation of the situation in Syria. The Iranian government emphasized that it is ready to use missiles to protect the legitimate power of Bashar al-Assad, reports the Notepad publication.
The commander of the aerospace forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, stressed that these missiles constitute an expanded Iranian military arsenal, while their exact number is kept in the strictest confidence.
Later, the commander of the IRGC Navy, Admiral Ali Fadavi, openly threatened the United States of America, saying that "The United States will learn the result of the Gulf War"
Should Russia leave Syria? The question seems to be rhetorical.
Russian aviation continues to launch missile and bomb attacks on Islamist positions in Syria. Judging by the objective control data presented online by the National Defense Center, and by the nervous reaction of the West, these strikes are indeed targeted and, what is especially noteworthy, accurate, in the sense of effective. What, for example, the Western coalition cannot boast of, having carried out more than 7 thousand bombings and missile launches, but never stopping the triumphant offensive of the Islamic State groups, prohibited by Russian law.
The fairly high combat effectiveness of the actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) is also evidenced by the fact that militants began to leave their positions and seek refuge outside the theater of operations (theater of operations), for example, in Turkey and Jordan.
Russia has already stated that it does not plan a ground operation in Syria. As for the army of Bashar al-Assad and his allies - the Kurds, Iraqis and the so-called volunteers from Iran, options are possible here. It is possible that the decision to bomb the bombing was made in Moscow so quickly (and also secretly) that potential allies simply did not have time to prepare. Another option is the military-technical weakness of the armed forces of Damascus, which over the four years of confrontation with the Islamic international have lost a good half of their personnel and military equipment.
As a result, Bashar al-Assad has to be re-armed quickly - the Turkish side has recently noted a very intense movement Russian transports(apparently with weapons and military equipment) through the Black Sea straits. But the delight of official Ankara is somehow not observed. Rather, on the contrary, one can read clear disapproval. Which, in general, is not surprising, since Russia’s military activity in the Middle East calls into question the implementation of geopolitical plans not only of Turkey, but of the entire Western world.
One must be infinitely naive to believe that the so-called Arab Spring, which eventually reached Damascus, was started solely from good intentions democratize Asia and Africa. Moreover, it is no longer a secret that the Al-Qaeda virus and the Islamic State virus were grown somewhere in secret laboratories at Langley. Moreover, overthrowing Bashar al-Assad is an intermediate task. The main goal is to create in the so-called southern underbelly of Russia such a geopolitical formation that would become much more dangerous than American military bases in Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries. Well, in order to give the process a more decent appearance, all this rabble was called the Free Syrian Army (FAS).
But, as it turned out, Islamic radicals do not know how to behave decently - they began to cut off heads on camera and in some places even went out of subordination. In general, in order not to lose face, the Americans had to somehow react and declare war on the Islamic State. But the war turned out to be somewhat strange: in two years, thousands of tons of TNT were spent, and the “Islamic State” didn’t give a damn – it won victory after victory and already controls most of Syria and significant territories in Iraq.
Of course, Moscow understood where all this was going and that Bashar al-Assad, no matter how they treated him, was the only real strength, which at least somehow opposes radical Islam in the Middle East. And if we don’t stop him now, it is possible that tomorrow Russia would have to fight the “Islamic State” somewhere in the Astrakhan region.
Moreover, the decision to begin bombing Islamist positions in Syria was made even with some delay. We can say that at the very last moment, because, as it became known, the Western coalition, commanded by the United States, had prepared a decision, following the example of Libya, to declare a no-fly zone over Syria. This means that the Syrian skies would be closed to Russian aviation, and Bashar al-Assad would face the fate of Muammar Gaddafi.
But it happened the way it happened. And, unlike the Western coalition, Russia is now operating in Syria legally - at the official request of Damascus. Moreover, as already noted, it works quite effectively. At least as far as airstrikes are concerned.
There are times when it is truly better to remain silent than to speak. British edition Financial Times, which reported that Russia's military intervention in the Syrian conflict was predetermined by Western plans to create a no-fly zone over Syria - allegedly the leadership of the Western coalition was close to reaching an agreement to close the skies to Syrian aviation - clearly neglected this golden rule. If the passage about the no-fly zone is not an attempt after the fact to distort Moscow’s true goals in the conflict in the Middle East, then it turns out that the real enemy of the West in the Syrian theater of operations is not the Islamic State, but Damascus, which is de facto the main enemy of the Islamists in land front. It would be enough to pin Bashar al-Assad’s aviation, which is already not very active, to the ground, and the radicals would gain complete military superiority.
Russia, of course, would not be happy with this option; there is no point in discussing it. But no one expected that Moscow would act so decisively and mix all the cards...
Although we have to admit that the confusion of the West, primarily the United States, passed quite quickly after the start of Russian bombing. At first The White house, albeit with restraint, welcomed Russia’s joining the fight against the Islamists and even seemed to come to terms with the fact that Moscow would act independently. But soon the United States adjusted its position. "To be honest, so far we see Russian solution take military action in Syria and intervene in civil war between Assad and the moderate opposition. We directly view this as a strategic mistake," US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said.
The crew of a Russian bomber is preparing to carry out a combat mission. Photo from the official website of the Russian Ministry of Defense
It would be good if Mr. Toner also suggested how to distinguish this most moderate opposition from the Islamic State militants on the battlefield. It is unlikely that the Americans themselves are capable of this, since, as experience shows, the Free Syrian Army (SAS) fighters they trained en masse and with the weapons they received in their hands usually immediately leave the training centers for the Islamists. Nevertheless, the Supreme Commander of the US Army, Barack Obama, is betting big on this phantom army.
According to the New York Times, President Obama, sharply criticized by Republicans and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for inaction, in the near future intends to initiate a general offensive by coalition forces led by America on the Syrian city of Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State. As noted, during the announced ground operation, the focus will be on 20 thousand Kurdish militias and about 5 thousand fighters of the moderate Syrian opposition, who “will receive support from the coalition forces’ aviation.” With the “moderates” everything is clear - it’s difficult to bet on something that does not exist in nature. There is also an issue with the Kurds. They do not favor Bashar Assad, but they are forced to act together with him against the Islamists. But it’s not very clear what they can negotiate with the Americans if the closest US ally, Turkey, ironizes the Kurds with bombs and artillery from time to time.
Speaking of Turkey, which has already joined information war against Russia. First of all we're talking about about Ankara’s overly nervous reaction to episodes when our planes accidentally flew into Turkish airspace for a few seconds. On this occasion, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has already called our ambassador to the carpet twice. I also had to report to the official representative of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov, who clearly reported: “This incident is a consequence of unfavorable weather conditions in this area (in the area of the Khmeimim airfield, from where our aviation operates - "NVO"). We should not look for any conspiracy reasons here." But on the Turkish side there is some conspiracy aspect, since the party to which President Recep Erdogan belongs is the same "Muslim Brotherhood", only a side view, and these same "brothers" in "Islamic State" has more than enough. Who is able to maintain restraint when Russian aviation is targeting its own?..
And in general, they are trying to shoot down our pilots different ways. For example, there is active talk that in the conflict zone any day now there will be modern systems Malware (which, unfortunately, is not excluded). Moreover, photos of supposedly downed Russian planes have already appeared in cyberspace. In the meantime, there is no confirmation, various experts, including our compatriots, are spreading rumors that the weapons of our aviation are outdated and ineffective.
True, you can’t tell this from the picture showing burning Islamist tanks. Most likely, RBK-500U aviation cassettes equipped with self-aiming combat elements (SPBE) could have been used here. 15 submunitions are scattered from the cassette over the concentration zone of armored vehicles. As soon as infrared sensor The SPBE detects the target, a command is issued to detonate the warhead - and a kilogram piece of copper is shot towards the target at the speed of a meteorite. No dynamic protection will save you! Moreover, this ammunition is actually more than 20 years old. But it was constantly modernized (see "NVO" dated 09/05/08) and, as one can see, it copes well with its destructive task.
There is an opinion that any development of the situation in the Middle East is suitable for the West. If Moscow had not intervened and the Islamists had been given the opportunity to defeat the army of Bashar al-Assad (it was believed that only a few months remained before the fall of Damascus), Russia would have been the next target of the Islamic State. However, the option of Russia being drawn into the Middle East war also suits the United States and its partners quite well. It is already obvious that the fighting in the Syrian theater of operations will not end quickly and material costs, taking into account the sanctions and the state of the Russian economy, will be sensitive. To what extent, this directly depends on how quickly the combat capability of the Syrian army and regional formations that support Damascus can be brought to the required level. It is impossible not to take into account the fact that the West, of course, will put a spoke in our wheels at the first opportunity. And the fact that we are not partners in this war and no coalition following the example of the anti-Hitler one will work out is already a historical fact.
However, while the situation in Syria is so uncertain, there is no reason for Russia to leave it. At least in the foreseeable future. Firstly, as soon as Syria is left without our support, everything will repeat itself - if not the Islamic State, then a terrorist entity with a different name (the West will come up with which one!) will try to take revenge. Secondly, after in Syria, along with the almost abandoned logistics point in Tartus, by force of circumstances, our powerful air base was also formed, Russia had a real opportunity to control, if not the entire Mediterranean, then certainly its eastern part. And so far we cannot oppose anything else to the US 6th Fleet in this region.
The war in Syria will inevitably determine the fate of the global economy
Economists warn of an approaching global financial crisis, which can only be prevented by a war with global repercussions. This title is claimed by the Syrian conflict, which can be considered “global”, because all world powers are involved in it. And Russia’s goal is not only the fight against terrorism, but also participation in the post-war distribution of trophies, Mil2.es believes.
Throughout history, war and economics have gone hand in hand. International economic analyzes show that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between these two processes: the means of military clashes influence the “economic temperature,” writes Enrique Montanches for Mil2.es.
Economists are warning that an unprecedented financial crisis is approaching: the dollar and oil that "fuel the engine of the global economy" are showing "signs of noticeable fatigue." The US is already predicting that the revival of the currency is possible only through a war with global resonance. According to The Economist magazine, the financial system is bursting at the seams, and today it is no longer enough to print “rivers of money” to save the situation.
In this context, the author of the article is concerned about the wars in Syria and Iraq, which since the beginning of October have become “global”, uniting all the world powers on one battlefield. Montanchez is convinced that Putin is ahead of Obama here: after a year and a half of US bombing, the US barely weakened ISIS, and the “Russian bear” changed the course of the war in just a few days. Russia’s goal is not only to prevent a jihad invasion of its territory, but also to take part in the post-war “distribution,” the Spanish publicist is convinced.
Montanchez believes that “we live in a mirage of military cooperation that will last until the destruction of the Islamic State.” The only question is how, after the completion of military operations, the great powers will divide the Middle East and its resources among themselves. Or the economic collapse will turn into a weapon that will influence the course of this “world” war. “Exciting months ahead,” says Spanish publicist ironically
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