Management decision making is in many ways the art of finding effective compromise. Gains in one almost always come at the expense of the other. The decision in favor of higher quality products entails increased costs; some consumers will be satisfied, others will switch to a cheaper analogue, etc.
Such negative consequences must be taken into account when making decisions. The problem in the decision-making process is balancing the negatives with the positives in order to obtain the greatest overall gain. Often the manager must make a subjective judgment about what negative side effects are acceptable to achieve the desired end result. However, some negative consequences cannot in any way be acceptable to the leaders of the organization. For example, violation of laws or ethical standards. In such cases, this will be interpreted as restrictions.
Interdependence of decisions. In an organization, all decisions are interconnected in some way. A single major decision may require hundreds of smaller ones.
Major decisions have implications for the organization as a whole, not just the segment directly affected by a decision. If a manufacturing firm decides to purchase new and more productive equipment for a plant, it must also find a way to increase sales of its products. Thus, the decision affects not only the production department, but also the sales and marketing department.
Taking into account the interests of participants when organizing the development of solutions.
Each management decision pursues very specific goals, uses certain limited resources, etc. Therefore, the implementation of any management decision changes the balance of power, the order of distribution of resources, the degree of self-realization of the individual, etc.
Due to the fact that people pursue different goals, perceive the situation differently, and receive different rewards for their work, conflicts arise in organizations in the process of developing and implementing management decisions. Conflict can reduce efficiency, block the implementation of a decision, increase the costs of its implementation, improve the decision, and increase risks; therefore, when developing a management decision, it is important to predict conflicts and provide measures to resolve them.
When developing and making a management decision, the manager must ensure the following conditions:
■ clarity and transparency of the solution For the parties involved;
■ compliance of the decision with the values of the parties involved;
■ compliance of the decision with the level of qualifications and education of the parties involved;
■ distribution of limited resources between the parties involved;
Rice. 31. Algorithm of the decision-making process
1. Identification, diagnosis and structuring of the problem. The need for a solution manifests itself either as a problem or as an opportunity. Problem - a complex issue that requires resolution, study, and collection of information. The problem arises when the organization faces obstacles to achieving its goals. This may be a negative trend that can lead to deterioration in the future, and therefore requires the adoption of appropriate measures and management decisions in the present.
The process of diagnosing and structuring a problem begins with setting a decision goal, correctly formulating the problem and collecting information about the internal and external environment based on market analysis, reading financial reports and other documentation, interviewing, surveying employees, observation, etc. At the same time, the reliability of the information and its completeness are determined, it is filtered and analyzed. When making a decision it is especially necessary relevant information, those. the information that is most relevant to the case illuminates the problem. Well-established communications are of great importance when collecting information about a problem.
An effective method for structuring and identifying the causes of a problem is cause and effect analysis, during which questions such as “Why did this happen?”, “What caused such a situation?” are posed. In the course of his work, a manager is constantly faced with the manifestation of causes and consequences, and it is important to correctly separate and recognize them, since very often erroneous decisions are associated with incorrect diagnosis of the problem. A common mistake made by managers when making decisions is incorrect diagnosis of the problem. M. Kurb, based on practical analysis, identified the following errors:
1) managers often confuse symptoms, causes and consequences;
2) they are biased in formulating the causes of problems due to the subjectivity of the approach;
3) they do not always know how to correctly diagnose a problem due to the lack of a comprehensive view of the organization’s activities; middle and lower-level managers in the organization especially suffer from this.
In such cases, it is important to identify the symptoms of the problem, determine the causes and consequences. Symptoms are obvious aspects of the problem that attract attention. For example, when a disease occurs, the symptoms are chills and fever, but the disease itself and its diagnosis may vary. Causes are the stimuli that prompt the occurrence of a problem situation. Consequences are what the problem manifests itself in the future. Symptoms can help determine the presence of a problem, but they may not always lead to the root cause of the problem. Establishing a cause-and-effect chain means identifying a hierarchy of causes and effects that leads back to the point where a decision must be made to eliminate the problem.
In other more complex situations involving a whole system of causes and effects, it is most appropriate to use the method of cause-and-effect analysis - construction Ishikawa or fishbone diagrams(Fig. 32).
Poor socio-psychological climate
improper operation
lack of training inattention
machine deformation
Low fatigue
qualification wear and tear
low level of vaniya
education
violation of procedure
poor quality materials
rapid wear incorrect processing
improper storage
low quality speed limit violation
Rice. 32. Ishikawa diagram
The specificity of the application of this method lies in the most correct formulation of the problem at the base of the “fishbone”, a graphical representation of the problem areas that caused its occurrence. This method makes it possible to identify areas of decision-making and develop alternative options for management actions necessary to eliminate the problem.
Formulating constraints and decision criteria – the next important stage in developing a solution. Many possible solutions to a problem will not be realistic because the organization's resources are limited or laws cannot be changed, i.e. there are always certain restrictions, which narrow the capabilities of the organization. Typically, restrictions associated with decision-making relate to the organization’s resources (material, financial, labor, information, time), such as a shortage of experienced qualified workers, unacceptable purchasing prices, expensive technology, a high level of competition, ethical standards, etc. legislation, limited period of time.
Decision Criteria(from the Greek сriterion - a means of judgment) - these are the standards by which alternative choices are evaluated, mainly these are efficiency criteria. When choosing criteria, indicators acceptable for the organization are determined: for example, the lowest costs, maximum production volumes, time frame for implementing the solution, maximizing profits, etc. Most often, management tasks are multi-criteria, i.e. meeting a whole list of quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. When solving each problem situation, the list of restrictions and decision-making criteria may be different. Moreover, the quality of decision-making depends on determining the weight of the criteria and their importance for the organization. The example below demonstrates the difference in choice in the case when the importance of each criterion was determined and when this was not done (Tables 25-27).
Formation of possible solution options, their evaluation and selection of the best option– This is the stage of identifying alternatives to solve a problem. At the same time, those alternatives are selected that best correspond to the decision-making criteria and existing constraints. In this example, according to the formulated criteria, experts evaluate them based on predicting the results of the possible implementation of each option. As a result, the most desirable, realistic and rational option is selected, the consequences of which are the most favorable. When organizing a choice, it is also necessary to assess the risk of each alternative course of action.
Severus tensed and closed his eyes for a second. This was enough for Granger to remember that in the summer when they lived together, Snape always did this when he felt bad. Hermione, without letting go of his hand, closed her eyes tightly and touched herself, lying on the hospital bed. Everything around suddenly disappeared. The girl was carried somewhere along a dark tunnel. There are thousands of voices around, merging into an indistinguishable hum. I wanted to close my ears and scream, but it was impossible to move or make a single sound. The only thing that kept me from getting lost in this crazy carousel was the potion master’s hand, still tightly gripping the girl’s hand. He was nearby and felt the same as her. After a couple of seconds, which seemed longer than an eternity to both, the guys simultaneously came to their senses.
Hermione! Severus! Miss Granger! Mr Evans! - joyful and excited voices were heard from all sides.
The Potions master only had enough time to send a weak smile to his wide brown eyes, in which the whole range of emotions was read. Then Snape fell into the darkness.
Harry, you need to rest! - Granger said once again, trying to drive away the restless Gryffindor.
She has been lying in the hospital wing for a week now, more precisely, a week since she woke up. Severus sleeps on the next bed, not coming to his senses. And Harry spends all his free time here. As soon as the bell rings, signaling the end of classes, the guy rushes to the hospital wing. Caring elves, knowing that the Gryffindor does not attend breakfast, lunch, or dinner, bring him food here. Under the reproachful gaze of her friend, sitting on a free bed, Potter does his homework, chewing something at the same time and sharing the news. Ten minutes before lights out, he goes to Gryffindor tower, and early in the morning, having barely gotten himself in order, he rushes back to Madam Pomfrey’s abode. The nurse shakes her head disapprovingly, but, knowing full well that this restless boy cannot be driven away, remains silent, like McGonagall.
I'm not tired, Herm! - Harry looked up from his transfiguration textbook for a second to send his friend a smile and cast a sad glance at Snape's bed.
“Let me at least help,” Granger sighed resignedly, trying not to turn towards Severus, so as not to betray her anxiety. Potter doesn't need to know. It’s enough that she spends the entire night staring with bated breath at such beloved and frighteningly pale features of the potion master’s face.
Yes, I almost... it just doesn’t add up here... - the Gryffindor ran his hand through his hair and, wincing funny, showed the right place on the long scroll.
Captivated by the problem, the guys did not notice Davis entering the room, and he watched with a sad smile for a couple of minutes as two heads bowed over the parchment before whispering:
What are we doing?
The Gryffindors, predictably, jumped up on the bed.
Marty, you scared us so much! - Hermione whispered in response, moving forward so that the professor sat next to him. - We're trying to do our homework. Well, you went back!
And what do you want? “Last year,” Davis shrugged and, quickly looking around, like a schoolboy planning some dirty trick, said: “Well, what have you got there?”
Harry and Hermione looked at each other, smiling.
Maybe you should go for a walk? - asked Madam Pomfrey, who appeared in the room a minute after Harry put the last point on his potions essay. “Miss Granger will benefit from fresh air, and so will you, Mr. Potter.”
I'll sit here a little longer, and you go.
It was already quite cool, so there were almost no students near the lake. Sitting down on a bench and picking up a yellow oak leaf with the toe of her boot, Granger finally decided to ask the questions that had been tormenting her all the time:
Marty, what happened then... and what happened to... Weasley? - Catching Davis’ surprised and confused look, the Gryffindor explained: “I didn’t want to ask Harry.”
We don't know much... When you were distracted by Ginny, Zabini came to his senses... He, as it turned out, owned wandless magic... There's some kind of ancient family curse... In general, you were supposed to forever fall into to someone or something like that... At the same time, Zabini firmly pinned you and Malfoy... When we got to the estate, almost all the Slytherins came to their senses and wanted to run away, but it didn’t work out. By the way, Evans is a magnificent battle mage; he almost tore them on the spot when he saw you. They were immediately taken to Azkaban. A couple of days later they were found dead in their cells. The official version is that they couldn’t stand another failure and committed suicide.
You and Malfoy were taken to Hogwarts. Draco quickly came to his senses, but here you are... They convened a consultation, the best healers came... Here again your Severus helped - in all of England, only three people know how to brew “Life of Death”. And he was able to, but it’s not so much the potion that matters, but the connector - the person you would come back for. You only missed Harry and Evans.
What about Ginny and Ron? - Granger whispered, trying to digest the information.
The Weasleys went to Romania to visit Charlie. There is a small school not far from Bucharest... They will finish their education there... They also got it then, on the estate... They spent two weeks in Mungo...
Did they really want to get rid of us? - Hermione asked, not noticing the tears rolling down her cheeks.
Ginny and Nott actually dated last year. I don’t know if they loved each other or if it was just... mutually beneficial cooperation... - Davis answered, choosing his words carefully. He really didn't want to say all this, but someone had to. - Before the battle, they seemed to break up. At parting, Nott gave Ginny a pendant - a rare artifact: if a person has been offended by someone at least once, even over a trifle, you just need to correctly remind him of this and the offense will develop almost into a blood feud. The one who wears the pendant is ready to do anything to get rid of the object of hatred. An amazing gift of persuasion immediately awakens, and this man can win over almost anyone to his side... Nott, most likely, wanted to help Voldemort get Harry in this way, but nothing worked out - Weasley hid the gift, never wearing it. Nott's connections with the Eaters could not be established - he did not have a mark, most likely, he tried to get one, but to no avail. In the fall, he and Ginny began to communicate again in secret from everyone. He managed to convince her of his love. Harry distanced himself from her... Weasley only wanted to make him jealous. I put on the pendant... That's when Nott played on Ginny's resentment towards Harry and you. She convinced her brother, and they set a trap for you - some kind of portkey system, a new development: you just need to put some object in your pocket or attach it to the clothes of this or that person or several people, and then activate your portkey and you will all be transported to Right place. At first, something went wrong - Harry became ill, Evans picked him up and carried the five of you. The Weasleys were immediately taken to one of the rooms of the estate. The plan was simple and seemingly win-win. It was possible to take revenge on everyone at once: the traitor Malfoy, the hero Potter and his girlfriend Granger. But Nott did not take into account one thing - Weasley had already communicated with the black artifact - Riddle's diary. It cannot be said that she has developed immunity - this is almost impossible - but last time she managed, albeit not completely, to get rid of the diary. She did not want to obey, realizing that something was wrong. And this time, common sense managed to defeat magic for a while, but it was too late... She tried to cancel everything, but Nott was not going to back down. A new portion of convictions - and Ginny is again what he needs.
When Weasley came to in the hospital, she immediately told everything herself. Harry didn't want to believe it for a long time, but he had to when he saw her memories. As soon as they were discharged, Ginny insisted on moving. They told Mr. and Mrs. Weasley that they just wanted a change of scenery. We didn't talk about anything - Harry asked. For all of you, you were simply captured by the Slytherins, trying to avenge the death of their master.
Ginny wanted to apologize to you in person, but she knew you might not want to see her, for good reason, so she asked me to write to her when you came to your senses. This letter arrived this morning,” Davis took an envelope from his robe pocket and handed it to Hermione.
Granger couldn't read it now - not because she was angry with Ginny... There was just too much information, she needed to calm down and think it over again, with a fresh head. The parchment disappeared into the folds of the Gryffindor robes, and Hermione, quickly brushing away her tears and smiling, asked cheerfully:
What else interesting happened?
The conversation turned to a peaceful direction: a couple of school gossips, new lesson topics, news about friends and acquaintances...
Returning alone to the hospital wing - one of the Gryffindor second-year students started a pogrom on the fifth floor, and Davis, as the dean, had to intervene - Hermione wanted more than anything for Severus to come to his senses. The girl perfectly remembered everything that happened to her in the world of the dead, but tried to imprison these memories in the farthest corner of her consciousness, so as not to reopen old wounds and not regret the decision made. There was only one thing she didn't want to forget - how good she felt with Snape. I wanted to hug him again and feel safe, to feel needed and, although there were no confessions, loved... The Gryffindor did not notice how she ended up near the ward. Granger woke up only after hearing voices. Overjoyed, the girl wanted to open the door and finally be next to the person dear to her heart, but she froze a step from the entrance.
Did you kiss her?! - Harry heard a disbelieving whisper.
“I had to do everything to make her want to come back,” Snape muttered tiredly. “She felt great there, among them.” I had to somehow convince her that it was better here, in a world she didn’t remember.
But now everything will be fine. You are both alive - that's the main thing.
You do not understand! I did something I shouldn't have! It was a mistake! I don't know what to do now! - the potion master’s voice sounded louder, notes of despair and regret were heard in it.
Everything will be fine, you'll see! - Harry answered exaggeratedly cheerfully.
“Of course,” Severus answered without much enthusiasm. - Go, you have to go.
Okay, hang in there. I'll come tomorrow morning.
Yes, Madam Pomfrey.
The sound of retreating footsteps was heard, and a second later Snape's barely audible whisper:
This was the last straw. The girl, not seeing anything because of the tears that blurred her eyes, ran around the castle, trying to hold back the sobs that were breaking free. Only after falling on the bed in the Room of Requirement did the Gryffindor give vent to her feelings. Only one word was beating like a mad bird in my head - “Lily”. The intonation with which the potion master whispered the name of his beloved put everything in its place. There was so much pain and despair in this whisper... Hermione understood that Snape had come for her and feigned love only for her to return. Well, of course, he will die without her. How she didn’t immediately understand, because she saw how he looked at Lily and James, but didn’t attach any importance to it. And now everything is clear: Severus saw his beloved and old wounds made themselves felt again...
“What were you hoping for, Hermione!” the girl mentally scolded herself. “You thought he could really fall in love with a nerd he couldn’t stand for six years? But he’s just saving his own skin! And he doesn’t need you! How can you compete with the ideal? "She died a hundred years ago, and he still can't stop loving her. He just tolerates you next to him, because otherwise he will die. Resign yourself!"
Having cried enough and torn the room to smithereens, the girl finally fell asleep with a firm decision: she will see the matter through to the end - she will save Snape, pretend that nothing happened and make the person who loves her happy - let at least someone be happy.
Chapter 19. Changes
Miss Granger! - An indignant exclamation made the girl freeze in place.
“Good morning, Madam Pomfrey,” the Gryffindor smiled guiltily.
Let me ask, young lady, where have you been? - the nurse asked, handing Hermione some kind of potion.
Madam Pomfrey, I feel great, really,” the girl said after swallowing the medicine. -Can I go now? Please! I will accept whatever you prescribe - you know me.
Miss Granger... - the nurse began, but when she encountered a belittling look, she gave up. - OK. But the potions must be taken strictly according to the clock!
Thank you,” the Gryffindor girl beamed joyfully. -Where is Severus? - Only now did Granger notice that his bed was empty.
Stubbornness runs in the family. I hope that I won’t see you here again soon, or better yet, never at all,” the nurse smiled and, having given Hermione the necessary potions, disappeared into her office.
Granger walked slowly through the almost empty corridors - it was Saturday, and most of the students had already left for Hogsmeade. The girl was afraid of meeting Snape, afraid of not being able to restrain herself. The potion master himself seemed to really want to talk, as evidenced by the periodically writhing and cold snake on his neck.
“Good morning, Miss Granger,” a cheerful voice rang out right above her ear and, turning sharply, the Gryffindor smiled at her dean.
Good morning, Mr. Davis.
Have you been discharged yet? - the guy asked carefully.
Yes,” they walked side by side in silence for a while, then the girl asked: “Any news from your parents?”
Grandma sent an owl the other day. He writes that everything is fine. John has completely recovered. They asked about you. If you want, we can write an answer together or even go to them for the weekend,” the brown-haired man suggested, stopping a couple of meters from the entrance to the Gryffindor living room.
That would be great,” there was an awkward pause and Granger finally decided: “Marty, if you’re not busy, maybe we can go for a walk?”
“Come on,” the guy was surprised.
Then an hour later at the gate, without waiting for an answer, the girl slipped into the opened doorway.
Her heart sank at the thought of having to lie to her friend, but the Gryffindor convinced herself that it would be better for everyone. After quickly taking a shower, Hermione finally decided to meet with Severus, especially since she still needed to change clothes.
Finally! - Snape exhaled and sharply turned away from the window as soon as Granger crossed the threshold of the room. - Where have you been?
When? - the girl feigned misunderstanding, looking for a suitable outfit in the closet.
At night and now... - the guy said a little confused.
I was so tired of the hospital wing that I decided to spend the night in the rescue room, then I went to see Madame Pomfrey, she discharged me,” the Gryffindor explained calmly, trying not to look at Snape. Having conjured a screen, the girl began to change clothes. - By the way, I forgot to say - thank you for saving me.
My pleasure. I just...
Do you remember what happened... there? - Snape swallowed, looking at the headman in surprise.
“In fits and starts,” Hermione shrugged. - Okay, I'll go.
The guys are throwing a party in your honor tonight,” said the potion master, trying to understand why Granger was acting this way.
At what time?
Starts at eight.
“Okay,” the Gryffindor nodded and, leaving Severus alone, she left.
Well, where shall we go? - Martin asked, still not believing that everything that was happening was not a figment of his wild imagination.
It’s better to go somewhere where no one will see us - you’re the dean after all.
"It sounds like we're on a date," Marty whispered, holding out his hand to Hermione.
“Why not,” the girl smiled.
They transgressed into some town, obviously Muggle. Having transformed their robes into more suitable clothes, the guys went into the first cafe they came across.
“And it’s nice and very cozy here,” Granger said, looking around the room, decorated in light colors.
This is the best cafe in all of Berkshire, believe me,” Marty grinned, calling the waitress.
Don't tell me we're in Newbury? - the girl was surprised.
How did you guess?
- “Hermy, you won’t believe it, this is heaven on earth, especially for such a connoisseur of beauty as I am. As soon as I saw this town, I was ready to forgive my parents for sending me to this stupid academy, and after visiting the local cafe... I fell in love, Hermione "Now I know where I'll take the most beautiful girl on earth when I decide to get a girlfriend. You should definitely visit Newbury! I won't forgive myself if you don't share with me a scoop of creamy chocolate chip ice cream with citrus slices - it's the best dessert of all time and peoples!" – Martina parodied the Gryffindor.
Do you remember all my letters by heart? – the Transfiguration professor froze in surprise.
Only the most emotional moments,” the guys smiled at each other and started eating.
All day long, Hermione and Martin, chatting merrily and reminiscing about their childhood, wandered the streets of Newbury, fed pigeons, and swung on the swings in the park. The Gryffindor almost forgot about her problems; she felt at ease with this man. The girl was even more convinced of her decision: they feel good together - this is the most important thing.
Is it time for you? – Davis asked quietly when Granger once again looked at her watch.
The guys decided to throw a party in my honor at eight o’clock,” the Gryffindor answered without emotion.
Then, it’s time for us to go,” the guy remarked hesitantly and gave the girl his hand so that they could transgress together.
Once on the grounds of Hogwarts, the guys continued to stand, holding hands, and were afraid to look at each other. Davis was afraid to move, realizing that Granger would now leave and this wonderful day would end. The girl struggled with herself, not daring to take the next step, realizing that there would be no turning back. Taking a deep breath, the Gryffindor closed her eyes, hid her face in the professor's blue robes and whispered:
I do not want to leave.
The guy tried to calm his racing heart and calm his wild imagination - he’s just a friend!
Don't you want to go to the holiday?
Hermione took another deep breath and looked into the blue eyes of the man with whom she was about to connect her life.
Martin... I don't want... to leave... from you.
At first, Davis thought that he had misheard, but the girl’s expectantly frightened look put everything in its place.
Severus turned away sharply, slamming his fist into the rough wall. Ignoring his bloody knuckles, the potion master sank to the floor. The image he had seen in the window, which he had stared at like a fool for several hours, waiting for Hermione to return, was still before his eyes. He saw how she and Davis transgressed somewhere in the morning, but did not pay much attention to it - maybe the girl just wanted to see her family. It’s not clear why she didn’t warn him, but Snape tried not to think about it. Parents, of course! They had a date! Moreover, it seems that the couple is not afraid of anything and is not embarrassed by anyone, selflessly kissing at the school gates.
“And she probably spent last night with this idiot!” the potion master closed his eyes, burying the back of his head into the cold wall. What was he counting on?! “That’s it! Enough! Nobody! Nobody! Nothing! Didn’t promise anything! She still doesn’t remember what exactly This is how you pulled her out of the world of the dead!
Snape stood up, healed his hand and returned to the bedroom. There are only three weeks left, then he will be able to disappear forever from the life of the girl who saved his life and took his heart in return.
Without a word, leaving Martin alone, Granger ran into the castle. I didn’t want to meet anyone, so the Gryffindor headed to the astronomy tower. After Dumbledore's death, there was almost never anyone there, even classes were moved to another place. Climbing the stone steps to the open area, the girl shivered from the cold wind and pulled her robe tighter. Approaching the fence, the Gryffindor closed her eyes and took a deep breath, trying to get all unnecessary thoughts out of her head. Suddenly there was a rustling sound and Hermione turned sharply, snatching her wand from her pocket.
Sorry, I wanted to leave silently, but it didn’t work out,” Draco smiled wryly. - I'll leave now.
Stay... if you want,” the hidden pain that flashed in the gray eyes did not allow the Gryffindor to just let go of the Slytherin.
They silently sat down next to each other on a stone ledge and looked into the gloomy sky. At these moments, both finally realized that there was no more old ridiculous enmity, although... in fact, it had not existed for a long time.
“Thank you,” Hermione whispered, “for helping then,” Draco nodded.
How do you feel?
Fine.
How are your parents? Is it true that Mrs. Malfoy is sick?
“It’s nothing serious,” the guy shrugged, “he and his father are now in France, it’s calmer there.”
Why are you here?
For a second, Hermione thought Malfoy was going to call her a mudblood or curse her, but that didn't happen. Next to her sat a tired guy, who, perhaps for the first time, allowed himself not to play, but simply to be himself. It was difficult to recognize this Draco Malfoy as a pompous Slytherin, and Granger liked it, with one exception... she wanted to see genuine joy in those stormy eyes.
I never thought I'd say this, but I agree with Potter: this is my home. I don't want to go to a place where it will be easier to survive. I want to live: to fight for my place in the sun, to atone for my sins, to prove that I am worth something. I'm not going to humiliate myself, suck up, or bend over backwards. I know who I owe money to and I know how to pay my bills. My father doesn’t understand me, but he doesn’t interfere either. He realized that he had made enough mistakes, and it was better for me to follow my own path, and not repeat after him. If they had told me earlier that I would become like this, I would have cursed me,” Malfoy smiled sadly and leaned the back of his head against the rough wall, closing his eyes. - I come here every day. Most students, and teachers too, avoid this place. And for me, this is a reminder, a reminder of what I could have done, that there were at least two people in this world who feared for my soul. They both thought I was an arrogant boy and they were both right. Both wanted to save me. It turned out... at least one person believes in it,” Draco whispered the last words barely audibly, then he started up, as if waking up, stood up abruptly and walked towards the exit. But, freezing for a couple of seconds on the threshold, without turning around, he said: “Take care of yourself.”
You too,” the girl wasn’t sure if the Slytherin heard her, but she hoped so.
Only now did Hermione remember that among the people crowded into the room that day when she woke up was Malfoy. He helped them escape, was worried about her... well, or at least showed concern. Draco has changed - that's undeniable. Although, if you think about it, they have all changed...
One obvious way to limit competition for rent is to ensure that it is distributed evenly among potential competitors, or at least to reduce possible differences. As illustrated by the Houston-Teppeso example (see Chapter 6), this requires a policy of reducing differences in earnings and benefits beyond those that might be driven by market conditions or productivity considerations. For example, it has long been common practice in law firms to pay equally to all partners of the same rank, regardless of their specialization or their contribution to the firm's income.102 This policy resulted in fewer conflicts over the distribution of profits and probably encouraged partners should not ignore those activities that met the long-term interests of the company, but did not bring immediate, easily personalized income. The cost of this strategy is that eliminating wage differentials negates the informational and incentive functions of rewards. In law firms, these costs manifested themselves in the fact that partners who provided high profits for the firm left it to start their own or move to other firms where compensation was more focused on results. In recent years, this phenomenon has caused the rank-based pay system to collapse.
Equal pay policies are most likely to be appropriate in cases where there is greater scope for prejudicial conduct | influence activities. This is convincingly demonstrated by the results of an empirical study of pay disparities among 1,805 different university and college departments.103 As noted earlier, the greater the awareness of individual earnings, the greater the likelihood of behind-the-scenes struggles over pay disparities. For those departments whose employees often enter into social interactions with each other and in which an atmosphere of cooperation rather than individual work prevails, more intensive communication processes between employees, including the exchange of information about earnings, should be characteristic. Consequently, these departments will be more burdened with the costs of influence and will therefore maintain differences in compensation of employees at a level lower than that due to differences in their work experience and I
productivity (and possibly also external market conditions). Gosu-
Endowed universities are in most cases required to disclose the salaries of their employees, while private universities are not subject to this requirement. Therefore, according to our theory, public sector institutions should have smaller differences in pay. Further, the larger the group, the more difficult communication is within it and the less likely it is for information to be disseminated among group members; accordingly, in small teams there should be smaller differences in pay. Finally, the collectivist, democratic structure of department management provides greater opportunities for political games are associated with large costs, as opposed to a more authoritarian structure in which key decisions are made by the head of the department; therefore, democratic structures can be expected to have smaller differences in pay.
The study showed that each of these factors is indeed statistically significant: differences in pay were smaller in departments with a democratic leadership style, in smaller teams, in government agencies, and in those departments whose employees communicate intensively with each other.
More generally, policies that protect individuals and groups from the adverse consequences of organizational decisions may actually help improve levels of performance. This policy may take the form of giving individuals or groups the rights to directly participate in the assessment of the current situation and the measures taken, although this participatory management approach carries the risk of opening the system to additional influences. An alternative approach is to support the requirement that changes not be introduced unless they benefit all members of the organization. Moreover, sometimes it is justified to forgo any opportunities to create new value if the implementation of these opportunities has too adverse consequences for some members of the organization, since the newly created value may result in losses associated with the conduct of influence activities. In this case, things may even lead to the collapse of the organization.
Decentralization and separation of structural units. Influence can be exercised only if there is a central authority capable of changing the distribution of costs and benefits between individuals or structural units. One extreme solution to the problem is to eliminate the central government. For example, when rising energy prices made aluminum production in Japan uneconomic in 1973, Mitsubishi Chemical, Sumitomo Chemical, and Showa Denko jointly decided to suspend or eliminate aluminum production.104 Implementation of such measures complicated by the fact that the unit whose interests are affected will try to resist and will demand from the corporation the allocation of resources necessary to maintain its activities or at least to slow down the pace of liquidation. Was this circumstance especially dangerous for the DL? Japanese system that supports reaching consensus in decision-making and consul- I
tations. As a result, it was decided to separate aluminum production, that is, to create new companies that are not related to the parent ones and do not lay claim to their resources. Thus, the possibilities of influence and the occurrence of corresponding costs were significantly reduced.
Structural decision processes that limit influence activities. In some cases, it may be possible to protect the efficiency of decisions from conflicts over distributional consequences by separating those aspects related to efficiency issues from distributional aspects. Thus, airlines have no particular reason to be interested in the distribution of flight attendants among crews; All that matters to them is that all crews are fully staffed. However, for the flight attendants themselves, this distribution is not indifferent, and if the appointments were made by the administration, then greater opportunities would open up for attempts to influence its decisions. Therefore, it was decided to give the flight attendants themselves, in order of seniority, the right to choose which crews they will work with. This decision separated the issues of efficiency and distribution, and because it was based on the principle of seniority, the distributive aspect of the decision was taken out of the control of the administration, thereby eliminating the incentive to exercise influence. (The same procedure is used to allocate first and second pilots and flight mechanics to crews, although in this case there are efficiency costs - some crews will be composed entirely of less experienced specialists).
More generally, the costs of influence can be reduced by introducing rigid rules and establishing mandatory decision-making procedures. Thus, if a company adheres to the policy of not paying attention to labor market conditions, then it weakens the desire of its employees to use this situation as an argument in negotiations. The cost of such a policy is that the company may lose valuable employees. Similarly, in order to limit political games, it is possible to promote employees solely on the basis of their length of service and results achieved, even if such a procedure is largely inconsistent with identifying the most suitable employee for a given position. At the same time, a situation may arise where important positions are occupied by poorly trained people, and the best workers remain on the sidelines. The famous “Peter Principle” (“People move up the ranks until they reach their level of incompetence”), a snide characterization of a real trend occurring in organizations, is a natural result of this process.
Well-structured routine decision-making procedures are quite often used to resolve personnel issues such as the distribution of airline employees among crews described above. When calculating annual pay raises, firms often allow employees to self-evaluate their performance by completing paperwork and briefly discussing their performance with their department heads, but they rarely provide the opportunity to influence the decision-making process in any other way. The costs associated with implementing such rent-seeking measures are primarily that they limit the flow of information to decision makers. However, a carefully designed decision-making process can often provide adequate information at relatively low influence costs.
An example of this is the tenure decision process of university faculty. As a rule, any department has a limited number of permanent teaching positions.105 Freelance teachers, after a certain period of time (usually 6 years), undergo certification, based on the results of which the issue of their admission to the staff is decided. Both the tenured candidate and the rest of the adjunct faculty have vested interests in the decision, and these interests often conflict with each other due to the limited number of tenured positions. Since non-tenure track faculty who do not participate in the competition typically have little or no information that is not available to full-time faculty, they typically play no role in the decision-making process. The role of the candidates themselves is usually minor - they may be required to provide a report on their teaching and research activities, as well as their course syllabuses, their student assessment rankings and a list of their published books and scientific articles. These materials are studied by tenured faculty, who have less reason to fear the appointment of a new tenured colleague; they hear from non-interested parties and vote on the draft recommendation presented to the university administration.
However, full-time teachers still have their own interests - they are interested in expanding their department in order to reduce the number of students in groups, have more colleagues with whom they can discuss their scientific work, as well as greater opportunities for administrative work. Given the limited budget of the university, one department can only expand at the expense of others. To limit rent-seeking by departments, university administrations typically predetermine the number of tenured positions and introduce a lengthy and complicated procedure for revising the number of positions in each department. This process is designed to limit the scope of rent seeking while at the same time obtaining the information needed to make an informed decision.
From the standpoint of limiting the costs of influence, one can interpret the strategy that the Californian company Hewlett-Packard, a manufacturer of devices and computers, has long followed: it allowed its divisions, within reason, to carry out, in fact, any projects in the field of research and development, but only on the principles of self-financing. This policy excludes attempts by individual units to convince the central administration of the need to transfer to them resources seized from other units. This saves both the costs associated with such attempts and the costs of protecting other departments from them, but limits the ability to implement worthwhile projects.
In the Houston-Teppeso example, one of the main reasons for the dissatisfaction of the Houston prospectors (besides the level of pay) was the frustratingly slow pace and complexity of the decision-making process in the Teppeso bureaucracy compared to what they were used to in "Teppeso". Houston." Again, such a practice could be quite appropriate in a large concern, where influence activities are a major potential problem and therefore the institutional barriers to their occurrence take on additional | value.
Decisions on product features and pricing. It is useful to compare the processes used to make staffing and salary decisions with other types of decisions that determine how a product will be developed and priced. Product performance and pricing decisions are critical to any organization because they are critical to its success in the marketplace. However, these decisions often have little redistributive effect within the organization (unless there is competition between product development teams, employees are likely to have little vested interest in a particular design decision). Typically, these decisions are made through an open deliberative process in which decision makers gather information from as many sources as possible and have the freedom to choose among a variety of decision alternatives. Moreover, this decision, as a rule, can be revised if new information becomes available! tions. Finally, unlike hiring decisions for university faculty, pricing decisions are typically a matter of decision making. assigned to middle managers with minimal control from senior managers. Relatively unstructured decisions about product features and pricing differ sharply from highly structured personnel decisions. This difference is due to the lack of any major distributional consequences of product feature and pricing decisions.
IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION MAKING
One researcher summarizes the management implications of this kind of complexity. Organizations operating in low-complexity environments have the advantage of having to deal with only a few categories of data needed to make decisions. 13 We will show in the chapter on organizations. 12 that in a less complex environment a less complex organizational structure is needed. And remember here that because different organizations operate in different environments, the situational approach tells us that there is no best organizational structure.
In the situation described above, it is important that the concept of relevance is applied consistently. The costs of wages for permanent staff of DS Co are not significant for making a decision on a new contract; they should be completely excluded from the analysis. Opportunity costs are involved in making a given decision, and it would be illogical to say that some costs are irrelevant to the decision as a whole, but are relevant when assessing the details of one of the consequences of a given decision.
Similar problems are typical in practical life. The interests of the company as a whole in the long term conflict with the interests of specific individuals or their groups over shorter periods. In such a situation, when assessing the activities of specific managers and departments, it is necessary to include in the analysis possible negative consequences from making a decision that is beneficial for the company as a whole.
Why Study Pricing Methods Different methods set a specific price according to certain circumstances or for different purposes. Some of the methods give the manager a minimum price that he or she can accept to ensure a profit. To make a final pricing decision, the manager must consider all of these proposed estimated prices. The more information a manager has, the more informed and thoughtful his decision will be. Recall that various methods and approaches provide only information for decision making. The manager must choose the most appropriate price (under the given conditions and circumstances) and evaluate the consequences of making such a decision.
Denial of service is a very significant and widespread threat, the source of which is the IT itself. Such a refusal is especially dangerous in situations where a delay in providing resources to a subscriber can lead to dire consequences for him. Thus, the user’s lack of data necessary to make a decision during a period of time when this decision can still be effectively implemented may become the reason for his irrational or even antitrust actions.
Taking into account negative consequences. Management decision making in many respects is the art of finding effective compromises, when winning in some consequences leads to losing in others. The problem of the decision-making process in the face of possible negative consequences is to compare the disadvantages of a particular decision with its advantages in order to obtain the greatest overall gain. When criteria for decision making are selected, negative consequences should be interpreted and used as constraints.
A serious problem is also ignoring the future economic consequences of decision making in order to achieve a high value of the estimated performance indicator in a short period. For example, in order to maximize the volume of products sold, marketers can use a system of discounts, paying less attention to advertising, market research, and creating new sales channels. All this will lead to negative consequences in the long term.
Depending on the nature of the reasons for the change in quality and their consequences, the expected success lies in a wide range. A complete coincidence of expected and actual success is rare. As a rule, the actual result is somewhat lower than expected. And yet we say that when preparing and making a decision, there is always hope for success. It is the final argument for making decisions in product quality management.
Let us note another interesting case of a comprehensive and systematic study of the decision-making process, where it is identified with forecasting. The task of forecasting is to prepare conditions for decision-making, i.e., to determine objectively the minimum area of possible controls, and for each of them (or for individual classes) to outline boundaries of the area of possible consequences of the implementation of these controls in various conditions that may arise during the future operation of the predicted system
Let's consider techniques for comparing alternatives for making decisions in a passive environment. To characterize the features of managing a one-time management process, let us assume that the subject is dealing with a unique decision, the result of the implementation of which significantly and for a long time determines its (economic) position. Examples of such a decision could be the choice by the ministry of location, technical equipment and other parameters of a large enterprise; the family’s determination of the location, type, size and ways of building their own home; the young specialist’s choice of place of residence and work. Possible, although unlikely, irreparable damages or losses, insurmountable difficulties, etc. negative results with fatal consequences for the business entity, often require exclusion from consideration of tempting but dangerous alternatives to action.In this case, an objective attitude towards risk acquires special importance, the subject’s tendency to take risky actions (optimism) or his deviation from risk (pessimism).
ECONOMIC DIAGNOSTICS OF AN ENTERPRISE - a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the economic performance of an enterprise based on the study of individual results and incomplete information in order to identify possible prospects for its development and the consequences of current management decisions. As a result of the diagnosis, based on an assessment of the state of the farm and its efficiency, conclusions are drawn that are necessary for making decisions on targeted lending, on the purchase or sale of an enterprise, on its closure, etc.
Environmental impact analysis of a project is intended to better understand the consequences associated with the implementation of the project. These consequences, as well as the beneficial and harmful effects of human activities on the environment, are studied and assessed from technical, financial and socio-economic points of view and to the extent that they are necessary for making decisions regarding the implementation of the project.
This condition of partial ignorance differs from that used in mathematical sciences to make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. In the latter case, it is assumed that all possible solutions are known. Uncertainty and risk have a certain degree corresponding to the likelihood of their occurrence or possible consequences.
In practice, it turns out that the interests of the enterprise and the interests of the national economy do not coincide in a number of ways. For decision-making at the enterprise level, the main importance is not so much abstract considerations about national economic efficiency as its specific consequences - material and moral incentives for its managers, the size of funds for improving production conditions and encouraging enterprise employees. While, for example, the assessment of an enterprise’s activities is carried out on the basis of indicators of plan implementation for the total volume of output (marketable products, sales volume), it often strives to increase the output of material-intensive and expensive products, without caring whether this decision is beneficial to the national economy.
Figure 4.1 shows the “C-cycle”, which allows you to maintain an organization in a stable state and increase its potential. Organizational capacity determines the range of alternative opportunities that an enterprise can pursue, although deciding whether to pursue them requires determining whether the commitments made will result in increased cash flow. Once these decisions are made, the consequences (depending on success or failure) must be monitored and analyzed. This creates the conditions for a subsequent increase in potential.
In cases where it is impossible to calculate the risk, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and finding the truth. Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk conditions: 1) you cannot risk more than your own capital can allow 2) you always need to think about the consequences of risk 3) you cannot risk a lot for the sake of a little 4) a positive decision is made only in the absence of doubts 5) when there are doubts, negative decisions are made 6) one cannot think that there is always one solution. Perhaps there are others.
Every person in his personal and public life uses models to make decisions. The mental image of the world around us is a model. A person does not carry complete images of family, business, government or country. It only selects concepts and relationships, which it then uses to imagine the real system. A mental image is a model, but, unfortunately, the model is not strict but blurred, it is imperfectly, imprecisely formulated and can change over time for the same person, even during a conversation. The human mind selects some concepts, which may be true or false, and uses them to describe the world around us. Based on these assumptions, a person evaluates the behavior of the system and thinks about what action should be taken to change it. However, this process often leads to errors due to the fact that the human mind is highly adapted to the analysis of the elementary forces and actions that make up the system, but, as experience shows, it is not adapted to assess the dynamic consequences of the development of rather complex systems.
UNPREPAREDNESS. Sometimes you procrastinate because you simply aren't ready for that particular task. You may not have all the information necessary to make a decision, or you may feel that you are not prepared for the consequences that will arise as a result of the project.
The choice that an individual will make in a given situation is made up of (1) his skills, knowledge, character, and personality traits as they have been shaped by all previous life experiences, and (2) the specific influences to which he is exposed in the course of his life. moment of decision . In most cases, the former is much more important in determining his behavior than the latter. When the playground manager changes the program for the day because the weather has turned bad, he is responding to an immediate factor, but this factor will have no consequences for his decisions tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It does not change his skills or his personality type in any way.
The fact that the Keynesian aggregate supply curve slopes upward has important implications for practical economic decision making. As we will see below, in these conditions the state
What might be the consequences for making an investment decision if it is impossible to correctly calculate the cost of capital?
Kanban (see [K 13]) and MRP (see [M 126]). The OPT system, like the Kanban system, belongs to the class of “pull” (see [C 95]) systems for organizing supply and production. Some Western experts, not without reason, believe that OPT is actually a computerized version of the Kanban system, with the significant difference that OPT prevents the occurrence of bottlenecks in the supply-production-sales chain, and Kanban allows you to effectively eliminate bottlenecks that have already arisen . The main principle of the OPT system is to identify bottlenecks in the production system or, in the terminology of its creators, critical resources. Critical resources can include, for example, stocks of raw materials, machinery and equipment, technological processes, and personnel. The efficiency of the production system as a whole depends on the efficiency of the use of critical resources, while the intensification of the use of other resources, called non-critical, has virtually no effect on the development of the system. Losses of critical resources have an extremely negative impact on the production system as a whole, while saving non-critical resources does not bring real benefits, in terms of final results. The number of critical resources for each production system is on average five. Based on the principle discussed above, firms using the OPT system do not strive to ensure 100% utilization of workers engaged in non-critical operations, since the intensification of the labor of these workers will lead to an increase in work in progress and other undesirable consequences. Firms encourage the use of the working time reserve of such workers for advanced training, holding meetings of quality circles (see [K 179]), etc. In the OPT system, a number of tasks of operational production management are solved on a computer, including the formation of a production schedule for one day, a week, etc. When forming a production schedule close to the optimal one, the following criteria are used: 1. The degree to which production needs for resources are met. 2. Efficient use of resources. 3. Funds withdrawn from work in progress funds. 4. Schedule flexibility, i.e. the possibility of its implementation during emergency shutdowns of equipment and short supply of material resources. When implementing a schedule, the OPT system controls the use of production resources to produce ordered products at fixed time intervals. The duration of these intervals is determined by expert opinion. During each interval, decisions are made on the operational management of the production process. To facilitate decision-making, the priorities of each type of product are determined programmatically using weighting functions, the so-called management coefficients (order rate, production time, etc.) and other criteria (acceptable level of safety stocks, date of shipment of manufactured products, etc.) . Based on the list of product priorities, the computer plans the maximum provision of resources to products that have the highest (zero) priority, and the provision of all other products - in descending order
