Foreign trade balance. The meaning of trade balance in forex trading

The purpose of this article is to study the theoretical aspects trade balance,its role, main articles and factors influencing it. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: - consider the concept and essence of the trade balance; - study its main features.

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The relevance of this topic cannot be exaggerated, since the trade balance is a mirror reflection of the economic state of the country. modern conditions It is difficult to predict or actively participate in the international monetary and financial system without taking into account the role of the country's trade balance.

The purpose of this article is to study the theoretical aspects of the trade balance, its role, main items and factors influencing it.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

consider the concept and essence of the trade balance;
study its main features

Trade balance(Trade Balance, TB) - part of the balance of payments that characterizes the country’s trade relations with other states. Its components are the export and import of goods. The trade balance is the difference between the amount of exports and the amount of imports of a country's goods. The trade balance characterizes, first of all, the competitiveness of a country's goods abroad. The predominance of exports over imports (positive trade balance) indicates that there is an influx of foreign currency into the country, and the exchange rate of the national currency rises. Conversely, the predominance of imports over exports (negative balance or trade deficit) means low competitiveness of the country’s goods abroad. (1, p.3)

The beginning of the emergence of the concept of “balance of payments”, according to its modern understanding, can be considered the appearance of the term “balance of trade”. It was first used by Edward Misselden in his treatise “The Circle of Trade” (1623), where the first calculations of the balance of trade for England for 1621 were made.

The concept of “trade balance” is further developed in the works of Thomas Mann. In the book “The Wealth of England in Foreign Trade” (1664), the author introduces the concept of “general balance of trade.” T. Mann notes that deficits in foreign trade with some countries can be compensated by a positive balance with other countries, therefore the assessment of foreign trade activity should be carried out on the basis of the overall trade balance.

The term " payment balance"was first used by the English economist, one of the largest representatives of late mercantilism (from Italian mercante - merchant, merchant), the first school of bourgeois political economy) James Stuart (1712-80). In his work "Inquiries into the Principles of Political Economy" (1767), he was the first to point out and examine in detail the relationship between foreign trade and the movement of capital. D. Stewart defines the balance of payments as an independent concept, which consists of (7, p. 57):

Expenses of citizens abroad.
Payments of debts, principal and interest to foreigners.
Providing cash loans to other countries.

The role of the trade balance in the Russian economy

In Russia, a positive trade balance has been observed throughout the entire history of statistics. The attitude towards a country’s trade balance surplus or deficit depends on a number of factors that determine the position of this country in the world economy, characteristics business connections with partners, characteristics and specific gravity main items of the trade balance, etc.

Thus, the attitude towards a positive trade balance in Russia is quite contradictory. Despite the increasing gap between exports over imports, forming a positive trade balance, quality characteristics This surplus has been a source of concern for economists for at least a decade.

The main source of surplus and the main export item are natural resources actively exported from Russia. And specific export growth natural resources shows growth dynamics throughout the entire time statistical observation. As we can see, quantitative growth in exports has been observed throughout the last decade. The fall in exports and imports of goods in monetary terms in 2009 was due to the active phase of the global financial and economic crisis, but within 2 years the fall was recouped, and trade indicators at the end of 2011 reached record levels. It is also worth paying attention to the fact that, as such, the export of natural resources did not fall quantitatively during the crisis. (paraphrase of source 2, p. 15)

Conclusion

In conclusion, it should be noted that the trade balance is one of the main tools for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

Trade balance is the relationship between the sum of prices of goods exported by a country or group of countries and the sum of prices of goods imported by them for a certain period of time, for example, for a year, quarter, month. In other words, the trade balance is the exports and imports of a country for a certain period or date.

If the cost of exporting a country's goods exceeds the cost of importing them, then the trade balance is active. If the cost of imports exceeds the cost of exports, then such a trade balance is passive. If the cost of export and import coincides, a net balance is formed. A country with a passive trade balance must cover the deficit by spending various balance of payments receipts, in particular income from the transportation of foreign goods on its means of transport or through its territory, interest and dividends from capital investments abroad, the influx of foreign capital, foreign loans, the use of reserves foreign currencies and gold exports. A trade surplus largely characterizes the favorable economic position of a given country and is one of the important indicators of the degree of dependence of its economy on foreign markets, on the state of the market, international competition, as well as political dependence on other states.

Balance of payments data reflects how trade with other countries developed during the reporting period, which directly affects the level of production, employment and consumption, how much income was received from non-residents and how much was paid to them. These data make it possible to trace the form in which foreign investment was attracted, whether the country's external debt was repaid on time or there were arrears and its restructuring, as well as how residents invested in the economies of other countries, how the Central Bank eliminated payment imbalances by increasing or decreasing its foreign currency reserves.

The balance of payments is actively used to determine fiscal and monetary policies, protectionist measures, as well as when making decisions on regulating the domestic foreign exchange market and the exchange rate. Based on the results of the balance of payments, further decisions are made in the field economic policy countries.

A distinctive feature of Russia from other countries with transitive economies is its enormous resource potential, which allows it to maintain an active current account balance, mainly due to a positive trade balance.

For Russia, financing the capital account deficit of the balance of payments is more relevant than the financing of the current account balance. However, this cannot be called a plus for the economy, since the positive current account balance is a reflection of the low investment attractiveness Russia.

Bibliography

Litvintsev N.N. Trade balance. Textbook edited by Litvintsev, 1st edition, 2010.240 p.
Aleksashenko S. The landslide is over, the crisis continues // Questions of Economics. 2009. - No. 5. - P. 4 - 20.
Buglai V. B., Litvintsev N. N. International economic relations: Textbook. manual/Ed. Litvintseva N.N. - 2nd ed. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. - 160 p.
Bulletin of the Bank of Russia. 2012. - No. 48 - 49.
Zhuravlev S. Stopping without a requirement // Expert. 2012. - No. 2. - P. 28 - 33.
Ivashevsky S. N. Macroeconomics.—Moscow, 2010
History of Economic Thought. /Under. ed. V. Avtonomova, O. Ananina, N. Makasheva: tutorial. - M.: INFRA-M, 2007. - 784 p.

The basis of the balance of payments is the trade balance. The trade (foreign trade) balance characterizes the export and import of goods. The trade balance is positive if a country exports more goods and services than it imports from abroad. In this case, the trade balance has a surplus. If imports are greater than exports, then the trade balance is negative or in deficit. Therefore, changes in the current account balance are associated with changes in domestic output and employment.

The balance of trade is built on the basis of customs statistics, which takes into account the volume of goods actually crossing the border, while the balance of payments takes into account payments and receipts during foreign trade turnover, which may not coincide in time with the movement of goods.

Foreign trade balance of the country- the ratio of the value of goods exported and imported during a certain period of time (for example, for one calendar year). The foreign trade balance includes goods transactions actually paid for and carried out on credit. The foreign trade balance is compiled according to individual countries and by groups of states.

The trade balance has its own balance. Trade balance- this is an annual (quarterly or monthly) indicator of the consolidation of foreign trade transactions of the country. If the trade balance has a positive balance, this means that in monetary terms (commodity volume is converted into money) more goods were sent abroad (exports) than received from other countries (imports). If the balance is negative, then the import of goods prevails over the export. A positive trade balance indicates the demand for a given country's goods on the international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume everything it produces. A negative trade balance indicates that a country, in addition to its own goods, also consumes foreign goods. A negative trade balance in countries such as the USA and Great Britain makes it possible to contain inflation and maintain a high standard of living by moving labor-intensive production outside the state.

In the United States, the trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, will amount to $836 billion in 2006 (due to the consumption of cheap Asian and Mexican goods, as well as raw materials). In Russia, the positive trade balance in 2006 (according to the Central Bank) will amount to more than $120 billion (mainly due to the sale of energy resources and metals abroad). In underdeveloped countries, a negative trade balance indicates the uncompetitiveness of export sectors of the economy, which often leads to devaluation (depreciation) Money such countries due to the fact that they cannot pay for import purchases. Countries such as the US and UK have capital-intensive and high-tech sectors of the economy, which attract significant amounts of capital from around the world in the form of portfolio or direct investment. However, due to the lack of competitiveness of export industries, these countries are forced to cover the bulk of the trade deficit by issuing private and government debt instruments.

Foreign trade balance of the country- the ratio of the value of goods exported by any country or group of countries and the value of goods imported by them for a certain period of time, for example, for a year, quarter, month. The foreign trade balance includes goods transactions actually paid for and carried out on credit. The foreign trade balance is compiled for individual countries and groups of states.

Negative balance

A negative trade balance in countries such as the USA and Great Britain makes it possible to curb inflation and maintain a high standard of living by transferring labor-intensive production outside the state [ ] . Such countries have capital-intensive and high-tech sectors of the economy, which attract significant amounts of capital from around the world in the form of portfolio or direct investment. However, due to the lack of competitiveness of export industries, these countries are forced to cover the bulk of the trade deficit by issuing private and government debt instruments [ ] . In the United States, the trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was $836 billion in 2006.

In underdeveloped countries, a negative trade balance indicates the uncompetitiveness of export sectors of the economy, which often leads to devaluation (depreciation) of the funds of such countries due to the fact that they cannot pay for import purchases [

Trade balance– trade balance: the difference between receipts and expenses for foreign trade transactions countries. A positive trade balance indicates that a country's exports exceed its imports. Accordingly, a negative balance shows the inverse ratio of the quantities of imported and exported goods.

In simple terms, trade surplus is the difference between a country's exports and imports.

What is a trade surplus?

Positive trade balance characterized by the predominance of exports of goods and services over imports and is an indicator high level demand for the country's goods on the world market, as well as sometimes about an oversupply of manufactured goods.

What is a negative trade balance?

Negative trade balance indicates widespread consumption of foreign goods. It is generally accepted that a positive balance is better than a negative balance, because in this case, the local manufacturer is supported, and therefore the country’s economy. A negative balance of foreign trade transactions can indicate an underdeveloped and uncompetitive economy. Most often, this situation leads to, which happens as a result of the lack of ability to pay for import transactions.

But this phenomenon also has positive side, namely the ability to curb inflation and maintain a high standard of living. The United States of America and Great Britain can serve as such examples.

Why does a Forex trader need a trade balance?

The trade balance indicator is one of the few indicators that can have not an indirect, but a direct, direct impact on fluctuations. This is explained as follows: the trade balance reflects the constant movement of financial resources between partner countries associated with the provision of certain goods and services according to the agreement.

It is worth noting the existence of one paradox, which is that the reaction of the national currency exchange rate to the trade balance report is minimal, and all due to structural and technical reasons. That is, the report is characterized by some delay. The reason for this is the time required for its preparation and execution. Therefore, exchange rate dynamics very rarely reflect the true flow of values and material resources between trading partners.

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Each state in the international arena must be measured in some way in order to be able to compile a certain rating or list of the effectiveness of a particular system in countries. One such indicator that allows this to be done is the trade balance. It makes it possible to compare trading performance different countries, namely export and import. If the balance is positive, this means that exports exceed imports, negative - vice versa.

The trade balance is a clear relationship between imports and exports, purchased and sold services and goods over a certain period of time. This indicator is also called the country's balance sheet. It consists of transactions actually paid for and also includes goods and services purchased on credit. Based on this, groups were compiled into which countries are divided depending on the final balance sheet value. A negative trade balance is characterized by a predominance of the import of goods into the territory of a state over their export and indicates that the country consumes more foreign goods. But this phenomenon also has a positive side, namely the ability to curb inflation and maintain a high standard of living. The UK can serve as such an example.

It can also be positive, which indicates increased demand for domestic goods in the state, as well as in the international market. A positive trade balance is characterized by a predominance of exports of goods and services over imports. A negative balance of foreign trade transactions can indicate an underdeveloped and uncompetitive economy. Most often, this situation leads to depreciation of the national currency (devaluation), which occurs as a result of the lack of ability to pay for import transactions.

Export industries can be characterized as high-tech and capital-intensive, which in turn will attract fairly high volumes of capital investment and resources, which are most often expressed in the form of direct, as well as But, despite this fact, the lack of competitive and efficient economic system countries are trying to cover it with additional emission (issue) of securities, debt obligations. The trade balance indicator is one of the few indicators that can have not an indirect, but a direct, direct impact on fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency. This is explained as follows: the trade balance reflects the constant movement of financial resources between partner countries associated with the provision of certain goods and services according to the agreement.

At the beginning of the analysis, it is worth paying attention to exports, because they are the ones that play decisive role in shaping the value of growth in the economy. Then experts analyze imports, because they primarily reflect the demand for foreign products: goods and services.

The trade balance is an indicator with which you can compare countries, as well as their internal structure.