Tropical Storm Maria has formed in the ocean. Its speed reaches 32 kilometers per hour. In just a few days it will turn into a hurricane. In Mexico there are now two of them raging - “Norma” and “Max”. The latter destroyed about two hundred houses in the state of San Marcos, one person was killed. Correspondent of the MIR 24 TV channel Olga Zhemchugova talks about this year’s spontaneous statistics.
A man who fights the elements - such extreme videos constantly collect millions of views on social networks. And the elements continue to prove that they are capable of knocking down not only a person. Sometimes entire buildings are washed away by currents of water into the ocean.
Hurricanes worthy of a Hollywood film have been raging in the Caribbean for almost a month. The United States began preparing for the arrival of the devastating Harvey back in the summer. They tried to run away as far as possible or at least stock up on everything they needed to wait out the storm. On the eve of the storm in Texas, local residents stormed grocery stores.
More than 70 people became victims. The disaster left hundreds of people without electricity and destroyed dozens of houses. But it turned out that this was just the beginning. It was replaced by Irma, which broke several records at once: in duration, wind strength, mass evacuation of people and the level of water rise.
The Caribbean islands took the brunt of Irma. Here the hurricane reached its fifth and highest point. On some islands almost all buildings were destroyed. The state of Florida was hit hard. At least 55 people died in these regions during the storm.
“We should not ignore calls for evacuation. Remember, we can rebuild your home, but we cannot rebuild your life!” said Florida Governor Rick Scott.
The consequences of Harvey for the United States were estimated at $300 billion. The hurricane spared no one. A famous British billionaire published a video of what was left of his house after a hurricane on one of the Caribbean islands. The businessman seems to survive, but many have lost everything. Cuba suffered severe destruction. Havana literally went under water.
"It's horrible. Our houses, our furniture - everything is flooded. Now we have to wait for the water to go away to dry it out and restore what was flooded,” said Havana resident Maida Viel.
Hurricanes of such strength also seem to have benefits. Residents of the affected regions unite and support each other in temporary assistance centers. They remember that in such moments it is important to take care of the most defenseless. Employees of one of the amusement parks in Florida posted a touching video of the evacuation of pink flamingos online.
The current American president thought that global warming might still exist. Perhaps because he himself has an estate in Florida, which was hit by the devastating Irma. Trump previously admitted that he did not know about the existence of category five hurricanes.
Based on other people's experience
On Monday, store shelves quickly began to empty in South Florida: residents decided to take advantage of their day off (in the United States, the first Monday in September is traditionally celebrated as Labor Day) and went shopping to provide themselves with the necessary supplies of water and food in case of a natural disaster.
This comes after Governor Rick Scott declared a state of emergency in the state, with the hurricane forecast to reach Florida by the weekend.
“In Florida, we always prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. While Irma's exact direction is still unknown, we cannot afford to be unprepared,” the governor tweeted. Scott also reported a phone call from US President Donald Trump, who assured the governor of the full support of the federal government.
On Tuesday, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported an increase in wind speed in the hurricane to 220 km/h. Some airlines, in particular the British British Airways and the American American Airlines, have already canceled flights to the Caribbean.
Not the first, not the last?
Irma is the second hurricane to hit the US in the last two weeks. At the end of August, the city of Houston (Texas) had to deal with the elements - as a result of Hurricane Harvey, severe flooding occurred that claimed the lives of 30 people. Then 75% of the state’s territory was under water, 100 thousand houses were destroyed, including 22 schools, which is why 12 thousand children did not start the school year. State Governor Gregg Abbott estimated the damage caused by the disaster at $180 billion.
As of July 7, 9 climate disasters were recorded in the United States in 2017, causing damage exceeding $1 billion. In total, these incidents resulted in the death of 57 people.
The frequency of natural disasters striking the United States shows an alarming trend. Moreover, as statistics show, the south-central and southeastern regions of the United States more often than other regions have to face natural disasters head-on. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the annual average from 1980 to 2016. amounted to 5.5 cases of natural disasters. Over the subsequent years (2012-2016), the indicators almost doubled, reaching 10.6. Last year was a record year for the number of weather and climate disasters, each of which cost at least a billion US dollars in damage.
In the first half of 2017 (data for the period January-June), the number of natural disasters in the United States has almost reached the record levels of 2016. Back in April, AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Royce talked about the possibility of "an increase in climate disasters" in the region. The inevitable rise in numbers as a result of Hurricane Harvey and now the rapidly approaching Irma should significantly raise the level of these concerns.
As you know, Donald Trump is skeptical about conversations about climate change and believes that the theory of global warming was invented by the Chinese to strangle competing American industry. Neither the G7 leaders, nor science advisors, nor even his daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared could convince him of this. Then superhuman forces took on the task of bringing the president to his senses - but the result of their intervention was not at all what liberals and supporters of global warming would have wanted.
First, Hurricane Harvey hit Texas, the most powerful one since 2005, when the infamous Katrina nearly wiped out New Orleans. Harvey, fortunately, turned out to be not so monstrous, but the scale of the destruction it caused is also impressive: 42 people died, about a million fled their homes, 100 thousand houses were damaged or destroyed. And on Sunday evening, another storm terminator, Irma, hit Florida - the main blow fell on the city of Saint Petersburg, named so by its founder, Russian nobleman Peter Dementiev, at the end of the 19th century. And somewhere in the south, in Mexico, a third tropical storm with the affectionate name “Katya” is raging, which may also well reach the shores of the United States.
Since from the very first hours of the emergency the president behaved with dignity and in a businesslike manner, criticism had to be literally sucked out of thin air. “Trump came to Texas, but did not meet with the victims of the disaster! - The Newsweek was indignant. - Bush Jr. was criticized for postponing his visit to the Gulf Coast, but when he finally visited it, he also talked to the victims. And Trump ignored them!”
The Washington Post blasted Trump for “not calling for fundraising or asking for volunteers. He did not grieve for the dead.” But the liberal media went the furthest, anathematizing the first lady of the United States for going to Texas in thin stilettos. Of course, the whole “stiletto heel scandal” wasn’t worth a damn - Melania got off the presidential plane in Houston already wearing sneakers - but the storm that was raised around Melania Trump’s heels by such publications as The New York Times, Vanity Fair, The Hollywood Reporter and many others, was quite comparable in strength to Hurricane Harvey.
The floods that hit Houston and Miami did not drown the reputation of the 45th president, as his enemies had hoped, but, on the contrary, helped his rating to emerge. Trump's approval rating, which dropped to 36.6% in August (unlike body temperature, this is not the norm at all, but a record low for the first year in the White House), rose to 38.8 after Hurricane Harvey (according to Gallup Media). Of course, this is still very low: the disapproval rating for Trump’s actions, for example, is much higher - 55.9%. But we must keep in mind that the entire huge machine of the mainstream media is working against Trump, and the August failure was the result of a massive campaign launched by liberals in the wake of the events in Charlottesville and the “Confederate Fall.” The disaster raging on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico has pushed into the background the confrontation between patriots and liberals, the fight against monuments, and even the notorious “Russian trace.” But the influence of Harvey and Irma on the political life of America did not stop there.
Powerful hurricanes that hit Texas and Florida picked up the 45th President of the United States, lifted him into the air, like Dorothy from the fairy tale about Oz, and threw him into the arms of his worst enemies - the Democrats.
On September 2, Trump asked Congress to allocate $7.85 billion to eliminate the consequences of Hurricane Harvey. The amount is not so astronomical, but it was very likely that the anti-Trump Congress would balk again. However, unexpectedly everything went very smoothly. And immediately after this, the leaders of the Democratic minority in the House of Representatives and the Senate - Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer - announced that they had agreed with the president to increase the limit on the US national debt in order to avoid a default.
Trump immediately confirmed the agreement: “We came to a deal, and I think the deal will be very good. We had a very, very cordial and professional meeting.”
Trump’s cordial meeting with Democratic leaders, who just yesterday were criticizing the president, what is the point? Of course, “strange encounters do happen,” but this is something out of science fiction.
“Trump's decision to approach Democratic leaders to reach a deal on the national debt was made out of the president's desire to be loved - after he concluded that 'people really f***ing hate me' me),” Michael Allen, a very knowledgeable founder of the Axios and Politico websites, tries to explain Trump’s romance with the Democrats.
It sounds, at first glance, rather naive, but isn’t the desire to evoke sympathy and approval in people one of the most important motivations for our actions?
"The bear hug between Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer opened Trump's eyes to a simple solution: Stop doing things people hate, and you'll start making great deals," Allen writes. In some ways, he is certainly right: the deal that Trump managed to conclude with the Democrats saved not only the United States, but also the world economy. Back in July, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned in a letter to Congress that if the debt ceiling is not raised, after September 29 the Treasury will lose the ability to fully finance the activities of the federal government. And it’s not just government employees who will feel the consequences: the $14.1 trillion US Treasury market is facing a so-called technical default - it seems like nothing bad, just a delay in interest payments, but the US rating will be downgraded again, as was the case in 2011. Then the Republicans desperately opposed Obama's attempts to raise the national debt ceiling, and the president managed to do this literally at the last moment, two days before the default. Now rating agency S&P Global Ratings warns that the consequences of a technical default will be more catastrophic than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the 2008 financial crisis.
Let us remember 2011 once again: only at the cost of enormous efforts and intense 11th-hour negotiations between Obama, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was a bill agreed upon to increase the US debt limit. In 2017, Trump needed only an hour and a half to solve the same problem, which he spent having a pleasant conversation with congressional leaders. All participants in the conversation, including the same Mitch McConnell, agreed that the national debt ceiling should be raised - temporarily for now, for three months, and then we’ll see.
It must be borne in mind that the Republicans, who have a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, are far from unanimous on the issue of increasing the limits of the US national debt. Generally speaking, resistance to raising the debt limit is a signature trait of the “elephants.” And the desire to increase these limits is typical of Democrats. Why this is so is a separate story that deserves a separate discussion. But it is important to understand that by making a deal with the Democrats, Trump actually moved away from the positions of his own party.
“Perhaps,” says Breitbart News columnist Adam Shaw, “Trump used this deal to declare his independence from Republican Party leaders. Trump is extremely disappointed in congressional Republicans for defeating his Obamacare repeal bill, and has repeatedly expressed a willingness to work with Democrats if Republicans do not play by his rules.”
According to Joe Pollack of Breitbart News, working with Democrats gives Trump an opportunity to bypass his party leadership, moderate Republicans, as well as his bitter personal enemies such as John McCain. But this seemingly winning tactic also has a downside. Relying on the liberal wing of the Republicans and the Democratic minority in Congress, the president inevitably loses the support of conservatives within and outside the Grand Old Party.
What has Trump won so far?
The first and most important thing is the almost $8 billion required to eliminate the consequences of Hurricane Harvey. But this is only the first tranche - even larger amounts may be required in the future. Texas authorities have already said that the damage could amount to $125 billion. The deal concluded between Trump and the Democrats makes it possible to seek these funds in the future: in essence, we are talking about launching a printing press.
Second, it is possible that the persecution of Trump by the mainstream and liberal media will stop or significantly weaken. The current Trump, who fired from his administration the most odious, from the point of view of the Democrats, associates - primarily Steve Bannon - can become a completely “negotiable partner” for the establishment.
But you have to pay for everything. Trump's possible alliance with the Democrats will come at a cost.
Nancy Pelosi has already urgently asked Trump to “morally support” on her Twitter the so-called Dreamers - children of illegal migrants living and working in the United States under the DACA program (adopted under Obama in 2012). And Trump agreed - he wrote that the “dreamers” had nothing to worry about during the six-month period while the administration was winding down the program: “There will be no action!” It would seem nothing special - but the cancellation of the DACA program was one of Trump’s campaign promises. And now he seems to be apologizing to immigrants for his words and actions. And this is just the beginning.
Washington is located far from the Gulf Coast, and tropical storms do not threaten the White House and the Capitol. But their impulses have already bizarrely mixed up all the usual layouts of the Washington “house of cards”, changing the balance of power between Republicans and Democrats, the President and Congress, as well as various influence groups in the Trump administration. Whether Trump will strengthen his position or, on the contrary, become an obedient puppet in the hands of the Washington establishment, depends not least on whether he will be able to curb the political elements and tame the wind.
In September, the United States lost about 33 thousand jobs after the hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck Texas, Florida and other southeastern states.
This is the first such decline in seven years.
According to Associated Press Citing the Labor Department, despite the impact of the hurricanes, economists expect job growth in the coming months as businesses reopen in affected states and construction companies ramp up renovation work.
The decline in the number of jobs last month occurred mainly in the service and tourism sectors. Thus, in Florida, restaurants and bars that employed more than 105 thousand people were temporarily closed.
In total, in the United States, due to hurricanes, more than 1.5 million people did not work in September. This is the highest figure in the last 20 years. Employees were considered temporarily disabled and did not receive salaries, which significantly reduced September profits.
However, other indicators indicate that this did not significantly shake the labor market. According to Autodata Corp., car sales jumped 6.1% in September as Americans began looking for replacements for the cars destroyed by hurricanes. Increased demand will soon force car companies to increase production.
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According to a consulting firm Moody's Analytics, damage from Harvey pre-estimated at from 76 to 87 billion dollars. This estimate includes damage to homes and businesses, as well as losses due to business interruption. By these indicators, Harvey is second only to Katrina in 2005.
According to Moody's forecasts, losses from Irma, will ultimately be valued at 83 billion dollars. Maria, which hit Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, will cost the States, according to preliminary estimates, from 45 to 95 billion.
