An airplane is the safest form of transport on Earth; even cars and trains are significantly inferior in safety to airplanes. Despite this, with each new disaster there are more and more aerophobes. Many people in the world are afraid of airplanes, mistakenly believing that other modes of transport are much safer. Is it true that there is a high chance of an accident? And can an airplane be called the safest mode of transport? We need to figure it out.
Statistics and odds
To determine that an airplane is the safest mode of transport, it is worth familiarizing yourself with the statistics. On average, seventeen disasters are officially registered per year. It is important to understand that these sad events occurred not only in Russia, but throughout the world. Over the hundred years of the existence of civil aviation, one hundred thousand people have become victims of plane crashes during flights. That's less than the rate of car accidents per year.
It is worth noting: there are no fewer crashes on cargo flights than there are on passenger flights, which is another argument in favor of choosing an airplane. The chance of falling is so small that a person is more likely to die from a lightning strike than from a plane crash. Statistical analysis led to the conclusion that public opinion regarding transport safety is based on fears and superstitions.
Flight safety
It is worth mentioning positive traits flights. This is the fastest mode of transport. We can also say that the safest mode of transport is an airplane. To agree with this statement, all flight histories must be studied. As you can see, the list of plane crashes is small.
Engine failure
Flying is the safest form of travel. This has been proven for centuries since the beginning of aviation. The plane flies thanks to its wings; during landing, takeoff and flight, its movements are controlled by engines. But what happens if they refuse?
If one engine fails, the passenger will not feel it because the plane can be controlled by the second engine. And even if both break down, the plane will not fall down at a right angle, but will glide in the air for about two hundred kilometers indefinitely.
Turbulence
It is not often that you meet a person who has not encountered turbulence while flying. Everyone describes it as pitching. What is it? Turbulence is when, when liquids or gases accelerate during external environment vortices are formed, irritating the external environment.
Many passengers wonder: can turbulence cause a tragedy? This can't happen. The plane is designed in such a way that in order for it to fall due to turbulence, a force is needed that can only be found in the atmosphere of the planet Jupiter.
Pilots try to fly around the turbulence zone, and airplanes can endure incredible shaking, so in terrestrial conditions the chance of falling from turbulence tends to zero. Only once in the history of mankind has an airplane crashed due to turbulence, when the pilot decided to fly over a volcano. Therefore, turbulence is only a comfort issue, not a safety issue.
Flying in bad weather
Pilots have an excellent understanding of weather conditions. A certain time before departure, they look at the forecast for the route to avoid getting caught in a storm. If the weather forecast does not comply with safety regulations, the flight is canceled or rescheduled to another day. Before starting their career, pilots undergo many tests on simulators, learning to act decisively and calmly in any situation.
How much does wind shear affect flight?
Wind shear is a sudden change in air movement and/or speed over a short distance in the atmosphere. This important factor, affecting the aircraft during takeoff and landing. It applies not only to airplanes, but also to other types of aircraft.
Wind shear occurs in the lowest layers of the atmosphere (up to one hundred meters in height). Modern aircraft have more mass, which makes them more inert. High inertia does not allow the aircraft to quickly change its speed. The aircraft maintaining this speed when flying through different levels wind causes a change in speed in the air. Because of this, the plane follows a trajectory lower than expected, making the landing dangerous.
What's really dangerous?
Icing is when the outside of an airplane becomes covered in ice. Occurs when flying in the sky with supercooled drops of water. This is very dangerous, since icing worsens the controllability of the aircraft and makes it heavier. The result could be an accident or even a plane crash. Even at the airport, the plane may become icy when sub-zero temperature. Before the flight, the ship is treated with a special liquid that stops the formation of ice. They douse every external part of the aircraft: from the wings to the stabilizer. In the atmosphere, icing is unlikely, but possible.
Causes
There are three main causes of plane crashes:
- Staff error.
- Technical difficulites.
- Act of terrorism.
Let's consider each of them separately.
Personnel error
It must be understood that personnel error means not only the wrong step of the pilots during the flight, but also the unprofessional work of maintenance and operation specialists, technicians, dispatchers, and operators. After all, it is impossible to predict human actions, and flight is a complex sequence of technical processes that requires strict control.
The majority of plane crashes are due to the human factor, as official statistics show. However, technology is moving forward rapidly. Every year, aircraft engineers develop new automatic systems, are designing new generation aircraft, which reduces the role of humans in flight to a minimum.
Technical difficulites
Bad and cheap technology can easily refuse to work at any inconvenient moment, but even high-quality automation fails. Equipment failure is a common cause of plane crashes; about a third of crashes occur precisely because of this.
The main causes of operational problems are malfunctions of the on-board computer and navigation systems. It is very difficult to find out the exact cause of these breakdowns. Taking this into account, airlines are purchasing new and safe aircraft, abandoning outdated models.
Act of terrorism
Since the middle of the last century, terrorist acts have become big problem affecting flight safety. Most often, terrorists hijack a ship or install explosives in airplane. Such disasters, unfortunately, take many lives.
Is it dangerous to fly on airplanes? As you can see, the statistics of falls are low, and their causes are rare situations from which no one on earth is immune.
Statistics and public opinion on this issue vary greatly. One thing is certain: absolutely without dangerous species there is no transport. Nevertheless, many passengers’ fears about using this or that type of transport are unfounded.
According to a survey conducted in 2006 by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), aircraft in terms of safety level were placed at last place, and railway transport came in first place.
70% of respondents give it a positive assessment, and only 15% consider it “definitely dangerous”. Negative reviews received aviation. 84% of respondents believe that such travel is dangerous, and 33% believe that it is very dangerous. Water transport had similar assessments: 44% perceive it as dangerous way movement and only 39% - as safe. And the most popular type of transport - automobile - is assessed ambiguously: 48% consider it safe, 50% consider it dangerous.
Statistics say the opposite. Airplane is considered the safest, followed by water and rail transport.. But cars are considered the most dangerous means of transportation. The data is calculated based on the number of victims when using a particular type of transport.
We feel most secure in. But according to statistics, the number of accidents is much higher than in. Usually they are not so widespread and receive less public attention.
According to ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization - the UN agency that sets international standards for civil aviation), there is one accident per million flights, which cannot be said about car and other accidents. But any plane crash, even the smallest one aircraft, immediately attracts media attention. This contributes to the formation of a negative opinion about aviation as a very dangerous form of transportation.
However, investigations into plane crashes indicate that they occur due to a combination of rare circumstances, the possibility of which is minimal (air crash statistics).
The probability that a passenger boarding a plane will die in a plane crash is approximately 1/8,000,000. If a passenger boarded a random flight every day, it would take him 21,000 years to die.
It is also a mistaken belief that in the event of a plane crash the chances of survival are minimal. According to the results of an analysis of 568 aviation accidents that occurred in USA from 1983 to 2000, fatalities account for only 5% of total passengers on board. According to these statistics, of the 53,487 people involved in plane crashes, 51,207 survived. As a result of a more detailed study of 26 serious accidents, accompanied by strong impacts of the liners on the ground, their breaking into pieces and fires, it turned out that approximately 50% of the people on board were saved in these disasters (how to survive a plane crash).
The likelihood of survival of the crew of passengers and pilots increases if the aircraft makes an emergency splashdown, even if it is not designed for such measures. Experts say splashdown increases the chances of human survival by 50%.
Compared to the statistics of plane crashes, the statistics of road accidents does not look very rosy. Only in Russian Federation in 2009 there were 203,603 road accidents, as a result of which 26,084 people were killed and 257,034 were injured.
Of course, if we take the number of kilometers traveled as a basis, then The safest mode of transport can be safely considered space travel. In the entire history of development, only 3 spaceship did not reach the ground (2 for the Americans and 1 for us). By the way, space tourism, despite its cost, is becoming increasingly popular, and the number of people wishing to visit space is constantly growing.
Calculate what type of transport is the safest, not so simple. To build a beautiful and visual graph, at least two indicators are required - the number of dead or injured, as well as the number of people who use this type of transport. For air, rail and water transport, this data is not difficult to find, because thanks to tickets, every person is taken into account. But there are problems with automobile transport. It is not possible to track the movements of the average Russian from work, to work and to the store - no one registers at the doorstep of their home.
Our transport safety rating according to statistics for 2018 was compiled using various sources - from data from the National Union of Insurers, which keeps statistics of registered insurance cases from 2012 to the present, to data on transport accidents on the Rosstat website.
> 200 deaths per 1.6 billion km
Although the number of accidents involving motorcyclists has decreased by more than 70% since 2005, the motorcycle remains one of the most dangerous forms of transport. According to statistics, it turns out that every 1.6 billion km of travel is paid for with the lives of more than two hundred drivers and their passengers.
A motorcycle, like another two-wheeled vehicle - a bicycle - is characterized by increased vulnerability, so accidents involving motorcyclists are highly likely to end sadly. The reason is non-compliance with the rules traffic, and, surprisingly, the fundamental refusal of some drivers to use a helmet.
5.75 people per 1.6 billion km
Personal cars are in second place in terms of the number of road accidents. In just 1.6 billion km of travel, at least 5.75 people die.
The reasons include the reluctance of drivers to comply with traffic rules, the condition of the road surface, the increased wear and tear of the vehicle fleet due to the crisis and the deterioration of the purchasing power of the population. And also (due to the increase in the average age of life) and the aging of drivers. All these factors together serve as a guarantee that road transport in Russia will not be safe for a long time.
9.4 deaths per 1 million passengers
Among air transport, the greatest danger to human life is not international transportation, but intercity transportation. Especially if a person in a helicopter is forced to go to those lands where even the notorious Makar prefers not to send his calves. Perhaps this is what explains such a high number of casualties among helicopter passengers. For every 1 million people, at least 9.4 are injured. You will have to fall from a great height, and, with a high degree of probability, the injuries will be incompatible with life.
5 deaths per 1.5 billion km
Minibus taxis cannot be called the safest type of transport in Russia. According to statistics, every 1.5 billion km of route traveled by a minibus is paid for by five human lives. Among the reasons can be cited both the work of drivers for wear and tear, as well as design flaws of minibuses, the condition of the roads, unwillingness to comply with traffic rules and drunk driving.
2.84 victims per 1 million transported
In 2018, there were several major accidents involving intercity buses, including a tragic incident in the Voronezh region, when two buses collided, five people died and 17 were injured. In general, according to statistics, intercity and international buses are not safe - for every million passengers transported there are accidents At least 2.84 are injured or killed. In total, in 2018, travel on intercity buses caused the death of more than 600 passengers, and more than 13 thousand people were injured.
2.3 accidents per 1 million passengers
This category includes both international ships and domestic river carriers. In total, in 2018, 62 incidents occurred during sea and river travel, which ended tragically for five people. In general, according to NSS statistics, for every million passengers transported, there are 2.3 accidents.
Passengers on sea and river vessels are threatened not only by the elements of water, but also by fire. One of common reasons transport accidents - a sudden fire on board a ship, usually caused by a faulty electrical wiring. This is not surprising, given that Russia's domestic fleet is in poor condition, and almost a third of the ships have celebrated 40 years of service.
Chance of dying: 1:11,000,000
The safest transport in the world, however, in Russia it is not possible to obtain accurate statistics on the number of accidents per number of passengers. Data from the National Society of Insurers, which we relied on when assessing the danger of other modes of transport, are not available for them. The reason is the peculiarities of the insurance system in Russia; Most air transport companies transport their passengers not only within the country, but also abroad. Therefore, they use international insurance policies.
This is why an airplane is the safest mode of transport: according to statistics, The chances of dying in an accident on board an airplane are 1 in 11 million. For comparison, the chances of being struck by lightning while walking in a thunderstorm are 16 times higher!
0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers
This category includes both intercity and international trains, as well as regular commuter trains. In general, for 2018 the statistics for Russian Railways look excellent - for almost the entire year, from January to November, only seven incidents were recorded. Unfortunately, there were some deaths - one person died. In general, there are no more than 0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers.
More and more people prefer to use one of the safest modes of transport, and this cannot be explained by price alone. Indeed, for some destinations the cost of plane and train tickets is almost equal. According to the Russian Railways website, in 2018, long-distance trains carried almost 8% more passengers than last year. And the increase in the number of passengers on electric trains amounted to almost 3%.
0.09 cases per million transported
The trolleybus is in second place in terms of safety among modes of transport in Russia. According to NSS statistics, for every million passengers transported there are only 0.09 accidents. Most of them are banal “stumbled and fell.”
The reasons for the low trauma rate of a trolleybus are very simple - its volume and weight, as well as its low speed. In a collision with, for example, a passenger car it will be much worse for the car. And the trolleybus passengers will get away with minor bruises.
0.04 victims out of 1,000,000 people
The safest transport according to statistics for 2018 in terms of the ratio of the number of accidents to the number of passengers. In total, out of one million people arriving from point A to point B, no more than 0.04 people are injured. In addition to safety, the tram has many advantages:
- it moves more smoothly than a car or even a trolleybus;
- less noisy;
- completely autonomous from traffic jams (unless, of course, motorists try to drive along the tracks);
- Of all urban transport, it causes the least harm to the environment.
Unfortunately, trams are gradually disappearing from small towns in Russia. The reason is the limited local budget, which simply cannot support a separate line. In just the past twenty years, the number of trams has decreased by more than 35%. Does this mean that the safest form of transport will gradually disappear from the urban landscape?
Many people have probably heard that traveling by air is much safer than traveling by land or sea. And this is true, so you shouldn’t be afraid of flying. However, it is important to remember the following: There is no completely safe mode of transport! Each category has its own data on emergency situations and, alas, passenger mortality. However, statistics for many years have stated that hundreds of times fewer people die in plane crashes than, for example, as a result of road accidents. Even cyclists (again, according to statistics) get into accidents more often than airline passengers. Interestingly, approximately 80% of people are afraid of flying, 5% completely refuse to fly because of their fear, preferring “safer” land and water modes of transport. Let's figure out what is safer: a plane or a train?
According to data collected over the past 5 years, the safest mode of transport is the airplane. Trains and boats are a little behind.
Let's think about why the plane is the safest mode of transport. There are an unimaginable number of aircraft in the world. In 2013, it was found that every 3 seconds somewhere Globe one airliner lands.
Let's imagine that with this number of planes, the chance of getting into a plane crash was only 0.01%, then there would be at least 13 crashes every day. The real probability of a passenger becoming a victim of a plane crash is 1 to 8,000,000. Even if you fly every day, it would take 21,000 years to die in a plane crash. By comparison, the chance of being seriously injured while simply walking is significantly higher: 1 in 1,749.
Rail transport is not far behind air transport in terms of safety. Most people die as a result of road accidents.
It is impossible to remain silent about the crash of even a small passenger plane, so with the help of radio, television and the Internet, the world learns about the real number of incidents. Another thing is that any plane crash is an extremely large-scale incident, so the news about the crashes is shocking in the number of victims, as well as in the footage of eyewitnesses and film crews.
A train derailment is no less a major event than a plane crash. It is noteworthy that railway transport ranks second in terms of safety, since in the event of an accident the passenger at least partially has the opportunity to take part in his own rescue. However, for example, since the beginning of 2016, 6 large-scale accidents have already been recorded in the world, and in 2015 - at least 24. There is a clear answer to the question: “Why is an airplane safer than a train?” very difficult, at least due to the fact that different countries, and statistics can vary greatly over different periods. However, one thing is 100% certain: most people in the world crash in cars.
Plane crash survivability
Many people believe that if a person ends up on board a plane that crashes, his chances of survival are close to zero. However, the statistics are more optimistic. In the USA, interesting calculations were made, which took into account the statistics of 568 disasters that occurred between 1983 and 2001. The dead were only 5% of the total number of passengers on board. The chances of survival are significantly increased (by as much as 50%) if the plane makes an emergency splashdown. Therefore, routes passing through water areas, are theoretically the safest.
Frequent flyers may have heard the story of the pilot who, after landing his plane, greeted passengers with the words, “The safest part of your journey is over.” And this is not fiction at all: this is exactly what most air passengers think. Next time you get into a taxi on your way to the airport, think about this: what do you know about the taxi driver in whose hands you entrusted your life? How often has this vehicle been serviced? Look out the window - are all the traffic lights working? Is the road in good condition? What about other drivers? How did they learn to drive? How well did they sleep before driving and did they drink alcohol?
Safety is the body of knowledge about risk translated into practice, and no other mode of transport is as expensive as air in terms of accumulating knowledge about the errors of people and machines. Thus, a mid-air collision at 800 km/h and at an altitude of 9,600 meters is less likely to result in your demise than almost any other mode of transport. From the aircraft's seats, the air in the cabin, to the choice of course and altitude, every decision in commercial aviation is made after careful consideration of how it will affect safety. In general terms, this is the most important thing.
Aircraft design
Over the past 50 years, nearly a billion flight hours have been flown in global commercial aviation, fueling an industry that pays careful attention to recording the continuous flow of information that is used to continuously improve aircraft and engine designs. "We are changing in better side“says Bill Bozin, vice president of safety for Airbus Americas, explaining that all this information allows engineers to better understand the capabilities of the machines.
“In earlier times, wing design was experimental in nature, which was considered the worst possible situation, which the plane may collide with,” continues Bozin. Manufacturers today know what's really going on, allowing them to make improvements that go beyond design to truly impact safety.
Technologies in the cockpit
Many modern jet aircraft experienced an innovation: when traditional mechanical control was replaced by electronic control. The following aircraft have fly-by-wire controls: Boeing 777 and 787, and Airbus A330, A340 and A380. With the transition of aircraft from mechanized to computerized controls, gone are the days when you had to apply enough force to pull the steering column towards you, comments Missy Cummings, an associate professor of flight and astronautics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former fighter pilot. US Navy. "We don't need any more brave guys like Chuck Yeager." The modern pilot is an information manager, and technology plays the muscular role in the cockpit.
Global Positioning System (GPS), advanced displays and telecommunications enable flight precision unimaginable in previous eras of air travel. "In the 1950s and 1960s, a fatal aircraft accident occurred every 200,000 flights," says Julie O'Donal, a Boeing spokeswoman. “Today, global safety indicators have improved by more than 10 times, i.e. A fatal aviation accident occurs less than once in 2 million flights.” The reason for these statistics is the instruments in the cockpit that alert pilots when they are approaching the ground or are about to collide with other aircraft. But it’s not just about technical innovations and other gadgets.
Pilot
“Technology is no substitute for experience, skill and insight,” says Chesley Sullenberger, who flew the highly automated Airbus A320 the day he and co-pilot Jeff Skiles landed USAirways Flight 1549 on the Hudson River in New York. 155 passengers on the flight were rescued, prompting the event to be called the "Hudson Miracle" - a feat in which, according to Sullenberger, experience, training, ability to predict and focus in difficult conditions played a significant role.
Airlines know how important good pilots and appropriate training, which is why great attention is paid to selection and training. Matthias Kipenberg, a former Lufthansa crew chief, is now the head of Lufthansa's Arizona training center, where many of the German carrier's 5,000 pilots took their first flight. Beginning with single-engine Bonanza aircraft, cadets learn to manage information flows, learn to follow routines and interact with others.
“We are looking for people with good communication skills, leadership potential, teamwork and risk assessment,” says Kipenberg. He noted that Lufthansa “grows its own pilots,” often hiring candidates who do not have any experience, since civil aviation in Europe is an extremely expensive industry, and there are not many experienced promising pilots. In contrast, in the United States, carriers expect that a person must have hundreds of hours of self-accrued flight time before becoming a commercial pilot.
American Airlines and Trans World Airlines, Inc. (which Americanairlines bought in 2001) is looking for pilots who can analyze information clearly and focus. Hugh Schoezel, former vice president of TransWorldAirlines, Inc. Corporate Security has hired hundreds of such pilots. “If the wife has filed for divorce, or the child is on drugs, or the blood tests are bad, pilots may not take this into account. It's not that they don't care, but it's not taken into account when taking off. Not everyone can do this, but almost all pilots can do it.”
Cockpit equipment
Choosing the right pilots key moment, this also includes the working environment: it also affects productivity - even large airliners are controlled from a cabin that is barely larger than the cabin of a medium-sized car. According to Juliana Fox Cumings, a pilot and engineering psychology specialist who has worked with displays on the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the flight controls and displays, although compact, perform a variety of tasks and have been tested to provide the necessary information in a clear and simple manner. circulation form.
“There is an explanation for everything: why this or that control, light bulb, switch has this or that size, shape, location, appearance, material,” comments Cumings. Airplanes fly at any time of the day, so controls must be clearly visible in any light. Additionally, “pilots need to know when they enter information whether it entered the system or not. In case of an error, the system must react in the form feedback. These are just a few of the things we need to consider.” Cockpit design engineers test their work by watching pilots operate in simulators, noting how well the instruments are positioned, whether the displays are easy to see, and how comfortable the seat is to sit during long flights.
Passenger cabin
But what happens on the other side of the cockpit door? Don't laugh, but just as much attention is paid to where you sit. Spacious or cramped, first class or economy, every seat on the plane meets the most stringent requirements in terms of durability and head impact protection. Modern passenger airplane seats can withstand 16 times the force of Earth's gravity. “It’s as if the plane was in motion and suddenly stopped. This requires a force 16 times greater than gravity, says David Ess, test engineer at MGA Engineering in Wisconsin. And the seat safety measures don’t end there. The fabrics and seat cushions are made of fire-resistant, non-flammable material, and do not emit toxic smoke. Even the seat back parts are tested to eliminate factors leading to death. The cabin insulation is also made of fire-resistant material, and in case of fire emergency lighting located close to the door. This makes it easier to find a way out in a smoky cabin, says O'Donal.
The main thing to remember is that most aviation accidents result in no casualties. (Over the past 10 years, of the 301 incidents worldwide, less than a quarter were fatal). “We can hear the plane losing altitude,” Ess continues. - “We can hear that somewhere a plane rolled out over runway. But for all the cases there are only a few fatalities.”
Air traffic control
Pilots and planes could be the stars of the show commercial aviation, but behind the scenes things are very different: the air traffic control system begins to operate where planes fly automatically assigned routes according to GPS, maintaining communication with each other and with the ground. We have come a long way from the days when only maps, boards, pencils and manual calculations were used for navigation. With 28 million flights in the past year, managing such a large and growing number of aircraft efficiently and safely is a daunting task.
“Many aircraft today can fly within a single geographic window so precisely that their horizontal position remains within the wingspan with a vertical deflection less than the height of the tail,” says Ken Shapero, chief commercial officer at GEAviation. As a result of the interaction of airborne and ground systems in the sky, clear route lines are created, deviation from which entails risk.
"Flight path aircraft is set automatically, and most of the route air traffic controllers only control the movement,” notes Steve Fulton, a former pilot, founder of the navigation company Naverus, which became part of GEAviation in 2009. Difficult terrain, low visibility, poor weather– dangers that could cause an airport to close and an aircraft to deviate from its course will no longer create chaos. “Everything is different now,” Fulton says.
Air traffic control in the airport area
The result of security improvements can be seen more clearly on site at the airport. Motion-detection monitors show the movement of any vehicle on the runway, taxiway and at the terminal gate, and air traffic controllers receive warnings of a possible collision. “Security today has reached levels we have never known before,” said Dale Wright, chief security officer for the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. “The risk is reduced, and this is the most important factor.”
Impact on the economy
In 2008 the influence civil aviation on the world economy was estimated at 3.56 billion dollars. Companies directly related to civil aviation were taken into account, as well as companies that are engaged in scientific and technical solutions to improve safety. Obviously, a lot depends on how correctly everything is done. So the next time your captain welcomes you on board his aircraft, you can sit back, relax and enjoy the flight. Because you now know that the safest part of your journey has begun!
