“L.A. TROFIMOVA, V.V. TROFIMOV MANAGEMENT DECISIONS (METHODS OF MAKING AND IMPLEMENTATION) PUBLISHING HOUSE OF ST. PETERSBURG STATE UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE BBK 65.290T...”

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

FEDERAL STATE BUDGET

EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION

HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

"ST. PETERSBURG STATE UNIVERSITY

ECONOMY AND FINANCE

L.A. TROFIMOVA, V.V. TROFIMOV

MANAGEMENT

SOLUTIONS

(METHODS OF ACCEPTANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION)

PUBLISHING HOUSE

ST. PETERSBURG STATE UNIVERSITY

ECONOMY AND FINANCE

BBK 65.290T Trofimova L.A.

T 76 Management decisions (methods of adoption and implementation): textbook / L.A. Trofimova, V.V. Trofimov. – St. Petersburg. : Publishing house St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Economics, 2011. – 190 p.

ISBN 978-5-7310-2742-7 The textbook contains theoretical materials on modern problems of making and implementing management decisions; methodology and methods for developing and implementing management decisions; the influence of the environment on the process of making management decisions; methods for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions; responsibility in the system of making and implementing management decisions; methods of information and analytical support for making management decisions, etc.

The textbook is intended for students, undergraduates, graduate students, teachers, practitioners and all those who study the disciplines “Management Decisions”, “Management” and apply in practice methods for developing and making management decisions.

BBK 65.290-2 Reviewers: Dr. Econ. sciences, prof. E.V. Pesotskaya Doctor of Economics sciences, prof. N.P. Golubetskaya ISBN 978-5-7310-2742-7 © SPbGUEF, 201

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 1. MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM.

1.1. The essence and main characteristics of management decisions....... 7

1.2. Decision functions in the methodology and organization of the management process

1.3. Typology and classification of management decisions

1.4. Conditions and factors for the quality of management decisions

1.5. Forms of preparation and implementation of management decisions.................. 37 Questions for review

Chapter 2. MODELS OF DECISION MAKING THEORY

2.1. The essence and significance of modeling processes for developing management decisions

2.2. Types of decision theory models

2.3. Basic Decision Model

2.4. Decision factors (determinants) as target management components

Review questions

Chapter 3. THE PROCESS OF ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF MANAGEMENT

SOLUTIONS

3.1. Approaches to management decision making

3.2. Stages of rational problem solving

3.3. Target orientation of management decisions

3.4. Diagnosis and problem identification

3.5. The essence of analysis of action alternatives

3.6. Organization of development and implementation of management decisions.... 83 Questions for review

Chapter 4. METHODS OF DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION OF MANAGEMENT

SOLUTIONS

4.1. Classification of management decision-making methods................................ 85

4.2. Methods used at the stage of diagnosing problems

4.3. Methods for generating alternatives. Creativity as the basis for developing non-standard (unique) solutions

4.4. Methods used at the stage of evaluation and selection of alternatives......... 99

4.5. Methods for implementing solutions and control

Review questions

Chapter 5. ENVIRONMENT FOR MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

5.1. The concept of management decision-making environment

5.2. Methods of decision-making under conditions of certainty.................................... 1

5.3. Methods for choosing management decisions under risk conditions........... 1

5.4. Criteria for choosing management decisions under conditions of uncertainty

5.5. Discounting and present value of money

Review questions

Chapter 6. EFFECTIVENESS OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

6.1. The effectiveness of management decisions and its components........ 129

6.2. Methods for calculating the economic efficiency of preparing and implementing management decisions (traditional approaches).... 132

6.3. Methods for calculating the economic efficiency of preparing and implementing management decisions based on the concept of value-based management (VBM concept).......... 136

6.4. Responsibility in the system of development and implementation of management decisions

Review questions

Chapter 7. INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL SUPPORT OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

7.1. Decision support systems

7.2. Decision support methods based on information technology

7.3. Management based on situational centers

Review questions

Literature

INTRODUCTION

This textbook is devoted to current issues of development, adoption and implementation of both programmed (standard) and unprogrammed (non-standard, unique) management decisions; it outlines the functions of management decisions in the methodology and organization of management processes, models and methods for making management decisions, features of the decision-making environment and its influence on the choice of decisions, as well as the role of creativity and innovation in making unique decisions, approaches to assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, information support for the management decision-making process, management based on situational centers.

In preparing this textbook, the works of domestic and foreign scientists were used, devoted to the presentation of issues to one degree or another related to the development of management decisions. Among them: G. Simon, F. Harrison, S. Young, I. Ansoff, G. Laux, R. Daft, E. De Bono, E.Y. Vilkas and E.Z. Maiminas, E.M. Korotkov, L.A. Matveev, M. Eddowes and R. Stanfield;

D. Khan, F.I. Peregudov and F.P. Tarasenko, Y. Lapygin, A. Urubkov and many others. The ideas presented in their works have received recognition throughout the world, and the authors considered that in some cases it was impossible to express the idea better than they did, and therefore allowed themselves to present to the readers the main provisions of their concepts.

The presentation of the material is based on a set of actions of a manager (DM), corresponding to the technology of making management decisions;

the place of the decision in the management process is described, the functions of the decision in the management organization are analyzed, a typology and classification of management decisions are provided; conditions and factors of their quality.

The main models of decision-making theory are considered: normative (classical), descriptive (descriptive), incremental processes, “garbage can”, Cornegie, etc.; the technology for making management decisions (stages, steps, operations) is outlined; methods for making management decisions are described.

After studying the discipline “Management Decisions”, the student must:

types of management decisions and methods for making them;

basic mathematical models of decision making.

solve typical mathematical problems used in making management decisions;

apply quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis when making management decisions and build economic, financial and organizational-economic models;

methods of making and implementing organizational and management decisions;

mathematical, statistical and quantitative methods for solving typical organizational and management problems.

The textbook “Management Decisions” is intended for students, undergraduates, graduate students, teachers, practitioners and all those who study the disciplines “Management” and “Management Decisions”

and applies in practice methods for developing and making management decisions.

– – –

1.1. The essence and main characteristics of management decisions Management is a purposeful influence on teams of people to organize and coordinate their activities to achieve the goals of the organization. Achieving management goals is carried out through the preparation and implementation of management influences on people, activating their work in the organization. The main form of such influence is a management decision, understood in business and scientific terms as a one-time act of final selection of one of the possible options for action.

A management decision is the result of the activity of a manager, whose main functions are to analyze information about the internal and external environment of the organization, its strengths and weaknesses and make decisions to achieve the organization's goals.

Management decisions are also a basic element of every management function: planning, organizing, coordinating, motivating and controlling, since their implementation also requires decision making.

The need to make a decision is caused by the fact that the enterprise is exposed to the influence of its environment and is forced to adapt to it with the help of feedback. Therefore, a management decision is the result of the manager processing feedback - information about the state of the control object, presented in the form of deviations of the parameters of the control object from the norm (goal). The goal is an ideal, mental anticipation of the result of an activity (SES, M., 1980). The content of the goal depends on the real capabilities of the subject and acceptable means to achieve it.

In management processes, deviations of the actual state from the goal are called problems. Problems (Greek) – a task, in management processes, is a contradiction between a goal and a situation, the resolution of which determines changes in the situation in the direction of the accepted goal. The situation is understood as the state of the control object relative to the developed goal. (Situation (lat.) – position, combination of conditions and circumstances that create a certain situation).

The starting points of the management process are: target function (goal) and deviations (problems). The task of management is to eliminate this deviation through making a management decision, defined in this case as finding connections between the existing state of the control object (situation) and the desired one (goal). In other words, the task of management is to eliminate the contradiction that arises between the actual state and the desired state described by the goal of the control object.

In today's environment of rapid change and complexity, decision making is one of the most important and most difficult responsibilities of managers. In order to increase the efficiency of the decision-making process and its quality, managers involve other workers in this process, learn from mistakes rather than looking for those to blame, strive to promptly abandon erroneous actions, ask themselves the question “why?” five times in a row, use collective intuition and provoke constructive conflicts.

Management decisions are the most important element of the company management process, a kind of center around which the life of the organization revolves. A decision can be considered as a product of managerial work, and its adoption as a process leading to the emergence of this product. In many cases, the real possibilities of achieving the company's goals and its effective functioning depend on the decisions made by managers.

G.A. Simon (Herber A. Simon, 1960), in his classic work on the science of decision making in management, defines management decision as a process synonymous with the management processes themselves. When managers make decisions in the course of their duties, there is always an expectation of success. Managers are always rewarded in one form or another for making effective decisions, and they are inevitably criticized or even “punished” for making mistakes. An inevitable attribute of effective management is the success achieved in the field of decision making. They are the most effective indicator of management skills and abilities. They are also the most significant contribution that any manager can make to a professional organization.

Given the importance of managerial decisions, it is useful to distinguish the decisions that are made in organizations from the many other decisions that can be made by anyone in an informal setting. Organizations make business decisions aimed at achieving the organization's goals. Business decisions are divided into expert and managerial. Expert decisions are advisory in nature and are made by persons (experts, analysts, consultants) who do not have linear authority related to the management of the organization. Management decisions are made by line managers and are aimed at achieving the goals of managing the organization.

Management decisions on the formation of the organization’s economic policy determine the program of personnel activities to fulfill their purpose (mission), to realize their unique abilities (competencies), to meet the needs of the owners and employees of the organization, as well as consumers. Due to the variety of goals that determine all the main elements of an organization’s activities, the management decisions that create them must be considered from the standpoint of their essence, functions, stages of adoption, applied decision methods, influencing factors and other characteristics. However, due to the fact that the concept of “decision” refers to the type of interdisciplinary concepts, it is necessary to identify those differences that are not specific to management decisions.

Thus, in psychology, decision-making is considered as a stage of an important act, including such psychological components as goals, assessments, motives, and attitudes.

Philosophical science interprets decision as the process and result of choosing a goal and a method of action.

From the standpoint of the general theory of decision making, management decisions are the choice from a set of the most preferable course of action (alternative). A solution is understood as: an element of a set of possible alternatives; normative document regulating the activities of the management system; oral or written instructions on the need to perform a specific action, operation, process; a regulated sequence of actions to achieve the goal; something reflecting the achievement of a set goal (material object, number, indicator, etc.);

reaction to a stimulus.

Thus, Harrison (1999) defines a management decision as “a moment in the ongoing process of evaluating various possibilities for achieving a particular goal. At the same time, existing expectations regarding one particular course of action force the manager making the decision to choose this particular course of action, which, in his opinion, provides him with best opportunities to achieve the goal."

“Decisions are the basic operations that take place in organizations. Successful organizations are able to out-decide their competitors in three ways: they make better decisions; they make decisions faster; they implement decisions more successfully” (McLaughlin, 1995). Thus, decision making is the most important activity performed by managers in business organizations; This type of activity best characterizes the behavior and competencies of managers and distinguishes management from other human social activities, because decision making is the primary concern and responsibility of managers.

Drucker notes that decision making is only one of many responsibilities of a leader. The decision takes only a small part of the manager's time, but making important decisions is the specific responsibility of the manager. Only the top level manager makes important strategic decisions.

“Of all the management responsibilities performed by executives and managers, the act of decision making is unparalleled in its importance; decision making is an integral feature of every manifestation of the relationships between people, machines, materials and technology” (Cornell, 1988).

The high importance of decisions in management is determined by the fact that management decisions influence all management functions in any formal organization; A manager's performance is also inextricably linked to the effectiveness of his decisions. Moreover, managerial behavior can basically be explained precisely in the context of a managerial decision, because The true essence of management is manifested in the success of decisions made after a certain period of time.

In modern economic literature, the concept of “decision” is not unambiguous and is considered as a process/activity, as an act of choice, as a result of choice and as a determinant of activity. These concepts are not at all identical to each other, although they are related. A decision as a process involves a time interval during which it is developed, adopted and implemented. Decision as an act of choice includes the stage of decision-making in compliance with special rules. A decision as a result of choice is an act of will, focused on the presence of alternatives, related goals and motives for the behavior of the decision maker. A decision as a determinant of activity is a certain image, a form of decision, a “spiritual result of activity, as an ideal product. Determinant decisions are not homogeneous; they are represented by certain types: goals, norms, assessments.” Those. decision - determinant is the definition of any basis, desired state, criterion of management activity and choice in this context is absent by definition.

Decisions are a universal form of behavior, both of an individual and social groups. However, despite the universality of decisions, there are differences in decisions made in private life and in the process of managing an organization. In relation to the process of managing an organization, the following fundamental points can be noted.

Goals. The subject of management (individual or group) makes a management decision based, first of all, on the goals of survival, effective adaptation of the company to the conditions of a competitive environment, and not on its own needs.

Consequences. The decisions of managers can significantly affect the fate of many people, workers, and can seriously affect the socio-economic and environmental situation of entire regions.

Division of labor. The formation of economic policy in the process of managing an organization is the functional responsibility of managers; other performers implement decisions already made. This is where the division of labor in the organization manifests itself. In a person’s private life, the process of decision making and its implementation is most often embodied in one person.

Professionalism. In private life, a person makes decisions based on “his own understanding.” The effectiveness of management decisions on the formation of economic policy primarily depends on the professional knowledge and skills of managers vested with special powers.

In the scientific literature, along with the term “managerial decision,” the phrase “entrepreneurial decision” is often used. The latter is common for decisions made by management personnel at any level of the company in the field of marketing, innovation, strategic and other production activities.

product of managerial work, organizational response to the problem that has arisen;

choosing a specific course of action from possible options;

a deliberate conclusion about the need to carry out some actions directly or indirectly related to achieving goals;

the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and selection of alternatives;

a general name for the results of management functions.

A management decision is a creative act of a management subject (individual or group) that determines the firm’s program of activities to effectively resolve an urgent problem based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the managed system and analysis of information about its state.

Often, a decision refers to both the act of choosing and the result of the choice (the answer).

The following aspects are distinguished as part of a management decision (Fig. 1.1): organizational, psychological, social, informational, economic, technological, legal.

The economic essence of SD is manifested in the fact that the preparation and implementation of any SD requires financial, material and other costs. Each UR has a real cost. The implementation of effective SD will bring direct or indirect income to the company, and an erroneous decision will bring losses.

The organizational essence of SD is that company personnel are involved in this work. To work effectively, it is necessary to form an efficient team, develop instructions and regulations, vest workers with powers, rights, duties and responsibilities, establish a control system, allocate the necessary resources, including information, provide workers with the necessary equipment and technology, and constantly coordinate their work.

The social essence of SD is embedded in the personnel management mechanism, which includes levers of influence on people to coordinate their activities in the team. These levers include human needs and interests, motives and incentives, attitudes and values. The social essence of SD is manifested primarily in the goal of SD.

the legal essence of sustainable development is strict compliance with the legislative acts of the Russian Federation and its international obligations, statutory and other documents of the company itself.

the technological essence of SD is the ability to provide personnel with the necessary technical, information tools and resources for the preparation and implementation of SD.

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The parameters (aspects) of studying management decisions include (Fig. 1.2): their significance, rationality, strategy, outcome, uncertainty, organization and level of decision-making.

Rice. 1.2. Aspects of studying management decisions Significance. Management decisions are of utmost importance for the entire organization. Making such decisions is a major aspect of management's activities. The main criterion for organizational effectiveness and managerial success is the list of successful decisions that have been made previously and which contribute to the growth and prosperity of the organization (Harrison and Pelletier, 1998).

Rationality. Management decisions are highly rational;

this is reflected in the fact that they are always focused on achieving the long-term goals of the organization. Other types of solutions cannot claim this.

The strategy of the entire organization is inextricably linked with management decisions. The strategy determines how and when the organization's objectives need to be accomplished, and the implementation of the objectives is naturally carried out through management decisions. Therefore, strategy is an integral part of management decisions.

Exodus. The expected outcome of a specific management decision is the achievement of the goal that set in motion the process of making this management decision. Successful outcomes are more often achieved when we're talking about about achieving satisfactory results rather than maximizing any particular result.

The outcome of a management decision is the results that management expects when making a decision. The outcome is a fundamental aspect of a management decision simply because it reflects managers' prevailing attitudes toward the issue, the attitudes that existed at the time the decision was made (Harrison and Pelletier, 1997).

The existing attitude of decision makers determines whether they will try to achieve the maximum acceptable outcome under given conditions with the attendant possibility of failure, or whether they will simply try to achieve the goal through a "satisfaction" approach in which there is no question of maximizing success, but which guarantees a more stable positive result. In any case, managers' expectations regarding the outcome are necessarily the main impulse that determines the choice, and therefore require special attention when analyzing various aspects of a management decision.

Uncertainty. The presence of uncertainty associated with a particular outcome is a constant in the decision-making process. Uncertainty can never be completely removed from a management decision. However, the degree of uncertainty can be reduced to acceptable proportions through the use of various theories and concepts related to the decision-making process.

Organization. The place for making management decisions is formal business organizations. Management decisions are made by professional managers who strive to achieve the objectives of the organization. These goals are the basis for management decisions.

For a management decision, the organization in which it is made is of great importance. It is in the process of achieving the goals of the organization that the need for making management decisions arises. Therefore, it is organizational goals that can serve as the basis for assessing the success of a decision. Management decisions and organizations exist within interdependent relationships.

When considering a manager as a decision maker, one mainly focuses on behavioral aspects. Different types of decisions are viewed differently and given different weight.

The same can be said about the various psychological forces that force a manager to choose a particular course of action to achieve a given task. From a behavioral point of view, a given manager's propensity to take risks or avoid risks, as well as the influence of the subconscious mind on the choice among available opportunities, is often considered. Although the behavioral point of view in itself is quite important and quite justified, it is nevertheless insufficient to reveal the full essence of a management decision.

Managers and organizations are a subsystem within the larger system of which they are a part that surrounds them (Harrison, 1999). The external environment of a particular organization is its shareholders, who are directly interested in the results of decisions made by managers. The roots of a management decision go to the environment, where, if necessary and possible, a management task is formed. This management task sets in motion a decision-making process that, if successful, results in achieving the goal within a predetermined time and cost framework. The success or failure of a management decision is determined by its acceptance or non-acceptance. That is, we can thus say that a management decision originates in the external environment, which is also the basis for its final assessment. It is clear that in this case the external environment has paramount importance to evaluate various aspects of a management decision.

Management decisions are made by individuals who serve as managers in formal organizations. When making decisions on behalf of their organizations, managers are influenced by the same psychological forces that influence ordinary, non-managerial decision makers.

Managers are influenced by the following factors: personality, the desire to avoid risk, features of the perception process, as well as the influence of the subconscious psyche. At the same time, managers are carriers of the organization’s values. Their personal values are usually subordinated to the requirements of the organization and the responsibilities they perform. If there is a conflict between the manager's personal values and the requirements of the organization, the manager will (should) be guided by the interests of the organization. Managers making decisions are most often guided by the needs of the organization and its shareholders, rather than by their own preferences.

Main properties of a management decision (Fig. 1.3):

firstly, a management decision is always aimed at solving a problem;

secondly, a management decision removes or reduces tension in people’s activities. It answers the question: what to do?

thirdly, the control decision has the power of concentrating efforts to resolve the problem. This is exactly how it is perceived by the staff.

Even if it is aimed, say, at eliminating a unit or dividing it into several units, it requires concentration of effort on this action. A solution is the quantum of effort leading to change.

fourthly, a management decision is an organizational factor in joint activities; it bears order and responsibility.

Rice. 1.3. Basic properties of a management decision

Basic requirements for management decisions (Fig. 1.4):

The purposefulness of the decision, compliance with its goal. Each decision must be specific and clear regarding the purpose of management.

The goal answers the question: why is the decision made, what is its significance in the development of the organization, how does it lead to achieving the goal? The goal, as stated earlier, systematizes management decisions.

Targeting of management decisions. This characteristic answers the question: who is it intended for, who, what links in the management system are the object of influence, who implements the decisions and is responsible for its implementation?

Organizational clarity of the decision. The decision carries a certain organizational potential, sometimes it changes the organization of activities. At the same time, there should not be, and sometimes this happens, elements of disorganization. Let's remember the formula: " With good intentions The road to hell is paved." Isn’t this formula found in the implementation of some management decisions?

The specificity of the solution is also its characteristic. Vague, half-hearted solutions, not worked out on the problem and situation, general type“strengthen, multiply, pay attention”, etc. may not be effective.

Timeliness of management decisions. As a rule, decisions are made when the situation and problem become clear. But the processes in which these problems are observed can become irreversible if the appropriate decision is not made in time. But what does “on time” mean and how is timeliness defined and measured? The maturity of the problem, the highest severity of its manifestation, the possibilities of solving it in a given situation. All this can be established during the analysis process. But a timely solution is not only a solution at the peak of the problem, at the maximum level of risk of irreversibility. Timeliness differs from prematureness in that it takes into account not only the state of the problem, but also the conditions and possibilities for its solution. Clearly, there is a range of success along the trajectory of the consequences of different types of management decisions, i.e. cluster of timeliness of management decisions.

Rice. 1.4. Basic requirements for management decisions

The authority of a management decision reflects the perception of it by the organization (performer, group, socio-economic system, etc.) from the standpoint of performance, importance, and responsibility. After all, management decisions are made not only by the manager, but also by the staff. And here it is important what powers are behind the management decision, how “strong” these powers are. Of course, the decision can be of an informal type, but it must also be authoritative, only here the role of authority is played by the authority of the leader, this is a kind of “informal authority”.

Feasibility. It means the availability or provision of the necessary resources, taking into account the situation or the competent capabilities of the personnel.

Practice shows that decisions may not be enforceable or may only be partially implemented. The decisions reflect the possible or only the desirable. Often decisions can hide the manager's hidden intentions. For example, you can give a performer a obviously impossible task (decision) in order to check his attitude to the matter or to obtain an additional “argument” of his incompetence.

This technique is sometimes used.

Controllability of the solution. Each decision must include the possibility of monitoring its implementation. It depends on other characteristics - specificity, targeting, etc., but at the same time it can be a separate subject of analysis and assessment. There are decisions in practice that are difficult to control or that do not involve control.

The resource intensity of a management decision is difficult to overestimate. Different solutions require different resources (time, information, human, economic, technical, etc.) and in different quantities and proportions.

Functional certainty of management decisions. Any decision is implemented within the framework of certain management functions, therefore we can name as characteristics of a management decision what functions it covers, how it “falls” on functional structure management system, does it provide certainty regarding the answers to these questions? After all, it is possible that the control system does not have one or another function to implement the solution. Then methodological and organizational difficulties arise, since management decisions are the main element of each management function: planning, organization, coordination, motivation and control, since their implementation also requires decision making.

Validity period of the management decision. When developing it, such a period must be calculated. It can also be presented in the form of a phased implementation of the solution, when each stage provides for a certain duration.

System of responsibility for management decisions. In general, there is a constant system of distribution of responsibility. A management decision may either fit into it, or may require some adjustment or addition. It all depends on the type of decision, its importance, nature and content. This characteristic also makes it possible to evaluate the solution.

Technology of development and practical implementation of management decisions. This is an assessment of how the technological scheme of a management decision fits into the overall management technology and how rational it is according to the criteria of the sequence of operations, time savings, use of methods, technical means, etc.

Argumentation of management decisions. It reveals the necessity and usefulness of the solution, shows its timeliness and peculiarity, and also contributes to better perception and awareness of the solution by staff. It carries a charge of staff activity. It is easier to implement a decision if it is clear why it was developed, if its meaning and purpose are clear.

Formulation of the solution. The formulation of the solution reflects the energy of the activity, the approach to the problem, and the attitude towards the staff. After all, a decision is, among other things, a psychological act.

The basic properties and basic requirements for making management decisions must be taken into account when developing and implementing management decisions.

1.2. Decision functions in the methodology and organization of the management process The starting points of the management process are: the target function (goal) and deviations (problems), and the management task is to eliminate this deviation through making a management decision, defined in this case as finding connections between the existing state of the control object ( situation) and desired (goal).

In other words, the task of management is to eliminate the contradiction that arises between the actual state and the desired state described by the goal of the control object.

The need for management is caused by the fact that the organization is exposed to the influence of its environment and is forced to adapt to it with the help of feedback. Therefore, control is the process of processing by the manager information about the state of the control object, received via feedback and presented in the form of deviations of the parameters of the control object from the norm (goal).

The evolution of the control mechanism passed from lower to higher (Fig. 1.5). On preliminary stage development, a mechanism appeared that used the physical interaction of objects and elementary forms of reflection (Fig. 1.5, a).

– – –

Then, at the first stage (Fig. 1.5, b), the simplest closed control loop with feedback (both positive and negative) appears at the level of conventional regulation, which responds only to current influences. The main goal of such a control mechanism is self-preservation (stabilization).

The second stage (Fig. 1.5, c) is intermediate: the control program itself is set (corrected) from the outside, while maintaining the stability of the control object must be ensured.

The third stage (Fig. 1.5, d) describes the further development of the control mechanism used in self-organizing systems. This stage is characterized by the presence of a second feedback loop and memory devices. Circuit II selects and accumulates information from circuit I. This information is processed and accumulated, then transformed into certain structures that improve the level of the organization, increase its activity and survivability.

Impacts external environment cause a deviation of one of the parameters of the controlled object from the norm. Information appears, a feedback loop is formed, which ultimately creates functional subsystems.

“...The concept of “deviation” (problem) is a universal element of interaction inherent in any system. Without deviation (problem), there is no information and management process, no development. Any type of order arises as a result of some kind of influence environment on a system that, adapting to changing conditions, accumulates useful information for itself and increases the level of its organization.

For a more complete study of the dialectics of management and development processes, it is necessary to consider the concepts of symmetry and asymmetry, which are closely related to such important characteristics of the system for us as stability and variability, organization and disorganization, order and disorder.

Considering the first feedback loop, we see that it, performing the function of simple regulation, is symmetrical both in its structure and in functional purpose, and satisfies all the most important features of the category of symmetry (order, uniformity, proportionality, proportionality, etc.). It provides “movement” without pronounced “development”, aimed only at preserving vital functions. For example, the production of a long-known product, its replication without improvement.

The second feedback loop, on the contrary, is an asymmetrical, “non-uniform” element. Here new formations take place, the level of organization of known structures increases, the direction of development and the “upward” movement are ensured.

Consideration of the interaction of symmetrical and asymmetrical elements even more fully reveals the system-forming role of the control phenomenon, which includes information, its accumulation and purposeful activity and is revealed in such paired categories as stability - variability, function - structure, movement - development, which correspond to the first and second feedback loops of the control system.”

Management is described by the “goal-decision” relationship, which is not unambiguous due to the large number of paths leading to the same goal. This is especially true for the hierarchical representation of goals (goal tree). At the highest level there are goals of a directive nature (strategic goals), which reflect the enterprise management strategy. Below are tactical goals that are developed by managers (decision makers). Tactical goals are subordinated to the strategic goal and detail it depending on the level of management. In addition to strategic and tactical goals, there are also situational (operational) goals that are formulated depending on the specific situation that arises at a given level of management.

Thus, the decision-making process is influenced by the entire set of goals (strategic, tactical and situational) and the information that arrives after analyzing the situation. The location of the solution in this chain is shown in Fig. 1.6. The activity of the system is associated with the main points of any management process - with the target function (goal), the emerging situation, deviation (problem) and solution.

Rice. 1.6. Place of decision in the management process

A management decision is the elimination of a contradiction (elimination of deviation) that arises between the situation (actual state) and the goal (expected state). It is understood as a one-time act of final selection of one of the possible options of action and is the result of the activity of a manager, whose main functions are to analyze information about the internal and external environment of the organization, its strengths and weaknesses and make decisions to achieve the organization's goals. The logic of the management work process is presented in Fig. 1.7.

Rice. 1.7. Logic of management work processes in an organization

G.A. Simon argued in his works that a management decision is synonymous with the complete management process, since in most cases decision making is “second nature” for professional managers. All their actions are aimed at achieving their goals; their thought processes are goal-oriented and completely rational; When making a decision and then starting to implement it (implementation), managers go through a series of integrated actions, which are presented in Fig. 1.8 as management decision-making processes.

1.3. Typology and classification of management decisions

Typology (Greek from type - imprint, form, ...logy - word, saying, teaching, knowledge) is a scientific method, the basis of which is the division of systems of objects and their grouping using a generalized model or type;

used for the purpose of comparative study of essential features, information, functions, relationships, levels of organization of objects. The main concepts used by typology are type, classification, systematics, etc.

In relation to management decisions, typology is understood as a tool for searching, analyzing, evaluating and selecting a management solution.

To describe and analyze all the complex relationships between different solutions in hierarchical system, which includes big number Decision makers have developed a typology of solutions, including: “object decision”, “organizational decision” and “communication decision”.

Rice. 1.8. Typology of management decisions

Object decisions include all types of decisions that can in principle be made by an entrepreneur, such as decisions about production volumes, prices, inventory levels, production sequences, use of machines, and information about product properties provided to consumers.

Organizational decisions are the choice of measures to manage the implementation of object decisions. In a hierarchical system, there is at least one level of management of the organization, the task of which is to manage the decisions made by subordinates.

Communication decisions are the decision to transmit certain information to a manager or other member of the organization who is not hierarchically related to the information carrier. If the corresponding level of management transmits information to a subordinate in order to influence his behavior (in terms of decision-making), then we are talking about the result of an organizational decision (i.e., an activity to manage the lower level of management). Information in an organization is transmitted not only from managers to subordinates. Employees also transmit information to a superior manager, in addition to this, they exchange information among themselves (the information can even be a message that the employee needs information).

Each organization can be interpreted and analyzed as a system of object, organizational and communication decisions. However, when making organizational decisions, it is ultimately about providing “good” object decisions. The impact on object decisions is often carried out not directly, but through intermediate organizational and communication decisions. Organizational decisions relate primarily to the sphere of activity of the management of the organization. This is especially evident in large enterprises, in which a variety of specific object decisions cannot be made by management itself and are delegated to subordinates. Decisions about managing the behavior of organizational participants (in terms of decision making) acquire particular significance.

Main characteristics of types of management decisions Object decisions can have the nature of preliminary decisions: in this case, one or more possible object alternatives are initially excluded from the choice, while the final decision remains open. A preliminary decision about object alternatives is characterized by the fact that it does not accurately fix the values of all object variables;

For some or all variables, it is at least decided that they should be in a certain interval. Preliminary decisions are made primarily when drawing up global plans for future periods. Such plans establish a rough framework for future actions, although they do not specify how detailed decisions will be made (the details are established, at the latest, by subsequent object decisions during the implementation of the plans).

An objective decision (like all other types of decisions) is always preceded by the activity of the decision maker, which forms possible alternatives to the decision and at the same time the need for its adoption. For example, it is necessary to establish how detailed the decision-making model should be drawn up, what types of activities should be assessed, and whether it is necessary to first collect any additional information to assess the consequences of action alternatives. In short: the values of the determinants (factors) of the object solution must be determined.

Organizational decisions. Usually, highest level management in the organization's hierarchy makes object decisions only partially (in an insignificant part) and more or less approximately. The remaining object decisions and their implementation are delegated to subordinate members of the organization. Thus, a system of interpenetrating joint decisions and their joint implementation arises. At the management level, the task is (also) to manage the decisions of subordinate members of the organization.

The highest level of organizational management influences the behavior of decision makers in the following way:

1. The decision maker’s ability to manage factors (resources) of production is provided or eliminated.

2. The decision maker prescribes norms of behavior that more or less precisely regulate rights (for example, the right to dispose of factors of production) and responsibilities.

3. “Additional” measures are used to ensure compliance (possibility of fulfillment) of norms of behavior.

The organizational decision of the authority serves, first of all, to delegate to subordinates that part of the object decisions that are not fully established by the authority and/or are not implemented by it itself, and to manage and control further work or execution of work. The subordinate himself solves the organizational problem. Within the framework of the competence granted to him, this employee can also transfer part of his object decisions and/or their implementation to subordinate members of the organization; he makes an organizational decision and due to this turns into an authority.

Competence in the field of making object decisions, on the one hand, and organizational decisions, on the other, can be provided to different employees to varying degrees. Decision makers may have a wide space of object decisions and a narrow space of organizational decisions, while for other decision makers the rule may be exactly the opposite.

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The textbook covers actual problems development, adoption and implementation of organizational and management decisions. Methods for taking into account the consequences of implementing decisions and actions from the standpoint of social responsibility are presented, and models for making management decisions, approaches to assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, information and analytical support for the process of making management decisions, and much more are described. Educational material equipped with illustrative examples, questions for repetition, tasks for independent work and tests for testing knowledge.

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In the process of developing and making management decisions, the decision maker can use various methods that directly or indirectly contribute to making optimal decisions.

Situation analysis methods

Case method:

Method of step-by-step analysis of real situations. It is used to analyze management situations, it is simple and effective.

Brain attack:

A method of analyzing a situation by generating ideas, discussing them, evaluating them, and developing a collective point of view. It is used to discuss the problem that has arisen and establish the main factors determining its further development.

Two-round survey:

Establishment of influencing factors through individual work of specialists. In the first round of a two-round survey, each of the specialists invited by the manager to participate in the work to establish the most important factors determining the development of the situation fills out a specially designed questionnaire in which he indicates such factors and provides a rationale for classifying them as the most important. The factors included in the questionnaire are ranked by the specialist according to the degree of their influence on the development of the situation. In the second round, cross-review of the questionnaires completed in the first round is carried out. This means that the questionnaires filled out by one specialist are evaluated by others and either agree or disagree with their assessments. Disagreement with the opinion of a specialist must be given reasons. The specialists who mark the specialist’s opinion also rank the factors presented in the questionnaire. The results of the second round are processed by an analytical group, which, based on the data presented in the questionnaires, forms a list of factors that, in the opinion of experts, determine the development of the situation.

Factor analysis:

Obtaining an analytical relationship that reflects the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation. It is used to assess expected changes in the situation with certain expected changes in factors due to emerging trends or management influences, the feasibility of which is established in the process of using situational analysis technologies. The analytical dependence is obtained on the basis of statistical data.

A method of collective search for original ideas.

The leader of the group (organization), relying on a democratic style of communication, encouraging imagination, stimulates the generation of original ideas and acts as their co-author. In another option: all participants perform on equal terms. With a joke or a good remark, the manager encourages the slightest initiative of the members of the creative group. The third pattern and principle is the use of the optimal combination of intuitive and logical. In conditions of generating ideas, it is optimal to weaken activity logical thinking and every encouragement of intuition. This is greatly facilitated by such rules as the prohibition of criticism, delayed logical and critical analysis of generated ideas. Lukicheva L.I. Management decisions / L.I. Lukicheva, - M.: Omega, 2011. P.88

Modeling methods

Game theory models:

A method for assessing the impact of a decision on competitors. It is used to determine the most important factors that require consideration in a decision-making situation in a competitive environment. It is not used so often due to the complexity and dynamism of the external environment. Ivanenko A.G., Securities market: Tools and mechanisms of functioning: textbook, 3rd ed. / A.G. Ivanenko, Ya.I. Nikonova, - M.: KNORUS, 2012. P. 26

Queuing theory models:

Determining the optimal number of service channels in relation to the need for them. It is used in conditions where decision-making requires estimating the optimal number of service channels that must be available to balance costs in cases of too few and too many of them. The most developed and convenient to use methods are those in which the incoming flow is Poisson.

Economic analysis:

Assessment of the financial and economic condition of the enterprise. Used in conditions of accessibility and reliability of financial statements. A typical economic model is based on determining the break-even point.

Optimal Linear Programming:

Finding the maximum or minimum of the objective function under given restrictions. A necessary condition for using an optimal approach to planning and management (the principle of optimality) is flexibility and alternativeness of production and economic situations under which planning and management decisions have to be made. Traditional optimality criteria: “maximum profit”, “minimum costs”, “maximum profitability” and others.

The textbook examines current problems in the development, adoption and implementation of organizational and management decisions. Methods for taking into account the consequences of implementing decisions and actions from the standpoint of social responsibility are presented, and models for making management decisions, approaches to assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, information and analytical support for the process of making management decisions, and much more are described. The educational material is provided with illustrative examples, questions for repetition, tasks for independent work and tests for testing knowledge.

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“L.A. TROFIMOVA V.V. TROFIMOV METHODS OF MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS Textbook PUBLISHING HOUSE OF ST. PETERSBURG STATE..."

-- [ Page 1 ] --

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

FEDERAL STATE BUDGET

EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION

HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

"ST. PETERSBURG STATE UNIVERSITY

ECONOMICS AND FINANCE"

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES

NAMED AFTER Y.A. LAVRIKOVA

ACCEPTANCE METHODS

MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

PUBLISHING HOUSE

ST. PETERSBURG STATE UNIVERSITY

ECONOMY AND FINANCE

T 70 Methods for making management decisions: textbook / L.A. Trofimova, V.V. Trofimov. – St. Petersburg. : Publishing house St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Economics, 2012. – 101 p.

IN textbook the main topics of the discipline “Methods of making management decisions” are presented, namely: the basics of the methodology for making management decisions; methods for diagnosing problems; methods for identifying (generating) alternatives; methods for evaluating and selecting alternatives; methods for implementing management decisions; methods for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions.

The manual is intended for bachelors, students, master's students, graduate students, teachers, managers involved in making management decisions.

Reviewer: Doctor of Economics. Sciences, Professor N.P. Golubetskaya Doctor of Economics Sciences, Professor E.V. Pesotskaya © SPbGUEF, 2012

Chapter 1. BASICS OF METHODOLOGY FOR MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

1.1. Management as a process of making organizational and managerial decisions

1.2. Algorithm for making management decisions

1.3. Modeling and models of managerial decision-making.................................. 14

1.4. Basic Decision Model

1.5. Classification of decision-making methods

Review questions

Chapter 2. METHODS FOR DIAGNOSIS OF PROBLEMS

2.1. The concept and significance of the problem in the process of making management decisions

2.2. Problem decomposition methods

2.3. Methods of comparative and factor analysis

2.4. Modeling methods

2.5. Forecasting methods

2.6. Situation analysis methods

Review questions

Chapter 3. METHODS OF IDENTIFYING (GENERATING) ALTERNATIVES

3.1. Method brainstorming

3.2. Delphi method

3.3. Heuristic methods

3.4. Methods of morphological analysis

3.5. Synectics method

3.6. Methods of collective associations

3.7. Methods using cards.

Review questions

Chapter 4. METHODS OF ASSESSMENT AND SELECTION OF ALTERNATIVES.

4.1. The concept of management decision-making environment

4.2. Methods for selecting alternatives under conditions of certainty

4.3. Methods for selecting alternatives under risk conditions

4.4. Methods for selecting alternatives under conditions of uncertainty.................................. 65

4.5. Expert methods

Review questions

Chapter 5. METHODS FOR IMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

5.1. Methods for planning the implementation of management decisions............... 72

5.2. Methods for organizing the implementation of decisions

5.3. Methods for monitoring the implementation of decisions

Review questions

Chapter 6. METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

6.1. Efficiency of management decisions and its components.................... 78

6.2. Methods for assessing the economic efficiency of making and implementing management decisions (traditional approaches)....... 83

6.3. Methods for assessing the economic efficiency of making and implementing management decisions based on the concept of value-based management (VBM concept)................... 87

6.4. Responsibility in the system of making and implementing management decisions

Review questions

BIBLIOGRAPHICAL LIST

INTRODUCTION

The discipline “Methods of making managerial decisions” belongs to the basic part of the mathematical and natural science cycle of disciplines.

The purpose of the academic discipline “Methods of making managerial decisions” is to develop theoretical knowledge about mathematical, statistical and quantitative methods for developing, making and implementing management decisions and practical skills to find organizational and managerial decisions and the willingness to bear responsibility for them.

The objectives of the discipline are to study modern methods making management decisions used in the practical activities of domestic and foreign organizations; studying technologies for making effective management decisions; obtaining practical skills and abilities to independently develop and make management decisions and adapt methods for making management decisions, based on the characteristics of a specific management object.

The discipline is based on the student’s knowledge, skills and competencies acquired while studying the following academic disciplines: “ Economic theory"; "Philosophy"; "Mathematics"; "Statistics"; "Theory of Management";

"Information technologies in management."

The knowledge and skills obtained in the process of studying the discipline “Methods of making managerial decisions” can be used in studying the disciplines of the basic part of the professional cycle: “ Financial management»; « Strategic management"; "Corporate Social Responsibility"; "Investment analysis"; "Project management".

Chapter 1. BASICS OF METHODOLOGY FOR MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

After studying Chapter 1, the bachelor should:

the main stages of the process of development, adoption and implementation of management decisions;

criteria and restrictions for choosing alternatives;

the essence of modeling in decision-making processes;

the structure of the basic model for making management decisions;

use an algorithm for making management decisions;

model the process of making a management decision using the basic decision-making model and its main elements, such as action alternatives, goals, state of the external environment (taking into account the possibility of its impact on the results of decisions), etc.;

conceptual apparatus in the field of management decision-making theory;

the ability to determine the main factors of a decision and methods of influencing the primary and secondary determinants of a management decision.

– – –

Decision making is the most important activity carried out by managers and is a one-time act of final selection of one of the possible courses of action to achieve the goals of the organization.

The need for decision-making is due to the fact that organizations, under the influence of changes in the external environment, are forced to adapt to changing operating conditions with the help of feedback - information about the state of the control object, presented in the form of deviations of the parameters of the control object from the goals, called the problem.

Problem (Greek task) – in management processes there is a contradiction between goals and the situation, the resolution of which determines a change in the situation in the direction of the accepted goal. In this case, the situation is understood as the state of the control object relative to the selected goal. The goal is the desired state of the control object. The content of the goal depends on the real capabilities of the subject of management and acceptable resources to achieve it.

Thus, decision-making is influenced by the totality of the organization’s goals (strategic, tactical, operational) and information received in the form of feedback about the state of the control object (situation analysis). The place of the decision in the management process is shown in Fig. 1.

Rice. 1. Place of decision in the management process

The starting points of the management process are: the target function (goal) and deviations (problems), and the management task is to eliminate this deviation through making a management decision, defined in this case as finding connections between the existing state of the control object (situation) and the desired one (goal). In other words, the task of management is to eliminate the contradiction that arises between the actual state and the desired state described by the goal of the control object.

Management decisions are the most important element of the process of managing an organization, a kind of center around which the life of the organization revolves. A decision can be considered as a product of managerial work, and its adoption as a process leading to the emergence of this product.

In many cases, the real possibilities of achieving the goals of the organization and its effective functioning depend on the decisions made by managers.

In organizations, business decisions are made to achieve the organization's goals. Business decisions are divided into expert and managerial. Expert decisions are advisory in nature and are made by persons (experts, analysts, consultants) who do not have linear authority related to the management of the organization. Management decisions are made by line managers and are aimed at achieving the goals of managing the organization and are called decision makers (DMs).

From the standpoint of the general theory of decision making, management decisions are a choice from a set of the most preferable course of action (alternative). A solution is understood as: an element of a set of possible alternatives; normative document regulating the activities of the management system; oral or written instructions about the need to perform a specific action, operation, process; a regulated sequence of actions to achieve the goal; something reflecting the achievement of a set goal (material object, number, indicator, etc.); reaction to a stimulus.

G.A. Simon, the founder of decision making theory, argued in his works that a management decision is synonymous with the complete management process, because For the most part, decision making is “second nature.”

professional managers. All their actions are aimed at achieving their goals; their thought processes are goal-oriented and completely rational; Having made a decision and then proceeding to implement it (implementation), managers go through a series of integrated actions, which are presented in Fig. 1 as management decision-making processes.

A purposeful change in the set of values of indicators that describe the state of a control object in time and space is usually called (according to the methodology of the systems approach) the functioning of the system.

Thus, the role of a management decision is, firstly, to change the state of the system in the direction of achieving the goal, and, secondly, it can be reduced to changing the goal itself if it was incorrectly set in a timely manner and all actions (alternatives) do not lead to it achievement .

An alternative in the decision-making process is a course of action or strategy to achieve a goal. Literally, “alternative” (French alternative, Latin alter - one of two) means the need to choose one of two or several possible solutions, directions, desired options, etc.

Methods of action are ways of using resources, so the capabilities of a decision maker are always limited by the ability to use resources.

Each alternative can be characterized by the amount of resource expenditure (which is always limited); possible consequences of the outcome, the likelihood of achieving the goal. Resource costs, the probability of achieving the goal and the result are predictive characteristics. Therefore, the decision-making process is always associated with uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity.

Decision making is the choice of the best (optimal) or acceptable, satisfactory alternative, i.e. certain actions on a set of alternatives, which result in a subset of acceptable (possible) alternatives that satisfy the imposed restrictions. Next, acceptable (possible) alternatives, or rather their results (outcomes, consequences), are compared according to accepted efficiency criteria, which are most often a mathematical expression of the goal and determine the degree of achievement of the goal for each selected alternative.

The alternative that reaches the extremum of this criterion is called optimal.

Thus, alternatives that satisfy the requirements (constraints) are called possible or admissible, and the alternative that reaches the extremum of the criterion is called the optimal strategy (Fig. 2).

Constraints include costs and ways of using resources to implement an alternative. In addition to the indicator of resource costs, each alternative can be characterized by a certain outcome and the probability of achieving the goal.

Criterion (from the Greek criterion - a means of judgment; a sign on the basis of which an assessment is made; measure, judgment) is a way of describing alternative options decisions, a way of expressing the differences between them (alternatives) from the point of view of the preferences of the decision maker (DM). Therefore, criteria are indicators that characterize the overall value of decisions in such a way that the decision maker strives to obtain the most preferable (or best) assessments for them.

Rice. 2. Scheme for choosing the optimal alternative

Requirements for the criteria:

completeness (the set of criteria must ensure the adequacy of assessing the achievement of the decision goal);

operational (the criterion has a clear, unambiguous formulation);

decomposition (the possibility of structuring a system of criteria);

sufficiency (no redundancy);

minimalism (the set of criteria should be the minimum necessary to carry out the assessment);

measurability (each criterion must provide a quantitative or qualitative assessment of the degree to which the goal has been achieved).

The most convenient for analysis are those alternatives in which the measure of efficiency is a single quantitative criterion (income, profit, costs, etc.). The only criterion used to evaluate alternatives is called a scalar criterion, and the set of criteria characterizing alternatives is called a vector criterion. Problems of assessing the effectiveness of solutions simultaneously using several criteria are called multicriteria.

1.2. Algorithm for making management decisions Management decisions are made through a dynamic and internally interconnected process, consisting of the decision-making functions presented in Fig. 3.

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Setting a management task includes, firstly, awareness of the need for a solution and, secondly, diagnosis and analysis of the situation. Decision making begins with setting goals, and a given cycle ends when the task that started the cycle is completed.

The need for a solution manifests itself either as a problem or as an opportunity. The problem arises when the results obtained by the organization do not meet its goals, which means that some aspects of its activities require improvement. Opportunity means that managers see the potential for improvement in organizations' performance to exceed current goals.

Diagnostics and analysis of situations. Once a problem or opportunity has caught a manager's attention, it is necessary to understand the specifics of the situation. The stage of the decision-making process in which managers analyze the basic cause-and-effect relationships of a particular situation is called diagnosis, or simply assessment.

Search for alternatives. Such a search consists of studying the external and internal environment of the organization in order to obtain the necessary information, which is then used to develop a list (set) alternative solutions, which, as it seems at this stage of decision-making, can lead to the completion of the task or to the achievement of a goal.

Constraints are the conditions for achieving the organization’s goals, determined by the external environment and resources of the organization. The main restrictions include laws and regulations, competition, pricing of raw materials and supplies, lack of financial resources, low personnel competence, needs for technology and innovation, narrowing of the powers of lower managers in making management decisions.

Decision criteria are the standards by which alternatives must be evaluated.

Comparison and evaluation of available alternatives. Available options are compared and assessed using appropriate methods and criteria.

Choice. The decision maker selects a suitable alternative from a range of options, i.e. he makes a decision. The best option is the one that allows you to achieve a result that is most consistent with the goals and values of the organization while using the least amount of resources.

Implementation of the decision (implementation of the adopted decision in practice). The decision is transferred from the plane of abstract conclusions to the plane of professional reality. At the stage of implementing decisions, managers need, first of all, managerial, administrative abilities and the ability to convince other people. The process of implementing a decision is much like the process of implementing a strategy, and its success is determined by whether management succeeds in converting guiding ideas into practical actions.

Maintenance and control. Subsequent analysis and control ensures that decision will actually lead to an outcome (result) that satisfies the management objectives that led to the start of the decision-making process.

1.3. Modeling and management decision-making models

Modeling is “the study of any phenomena, processes or systems of objects by constructing and studying their models, the study of models to determine or clarify the nature and rationalization of methods for constructing newly constructed systems and objects.” Modeling provides the opportunity to study an object not directly, but through consideration of another, similar and more accessible object - its model.

Model (from Latin modulus - sample, image, image) is man-made resemblance to a real object. Modeling is most widely used in technology, in the automotive industry, in aviation, in space, in geodesy, in architecture, etc.

The main properties of models are as follows: firstly, the model must be similar to the object being studied, and secondly, the model must be simpler than the object being studied in order for it to be studied. The main purpose of the model is the ability to conduct experiments, analysis and study with the model, which are impossible with the object under study itself.

The need for modeling is due to the complexity of organizational situations, the impossibility of experimenting with real objects and the focus of management on the future (analysis of the consequences of selected alternatives).

There are physical, analog and mathematical models. In economics and management, creating a physical analogue (model) of a control object is extremely difficult, and most often simply impossible; To evaluate solutions, you can use not direct analogues - samples of the original object, but descriptions, diagrams, calculated mathematical relationships that analytically, using formulas, connect its characteristics with each other. This approach is no different from traditional modeling, however, the model (sample) in this case is not a physical analogue of the original object, but a system of mathematical relationships.

The relationships that establish the relationship between the characteristics of the control object and performance indicators (criteria) are called mathematical models. In a broader sense, a mathematical model is an approximate description of a class of phenomena in the external world, expressed using mathematical symbols.

The possibility of using and creating mathematical models for making management decisions is largely due to the fact that most decisions, as a rule, can be associated with a set of well-defined quantitatively measurable quantities that characterize both the management object itself and the external environment. Quantitatively measurable quantities and characteristics with the help of which a decision maker can exercise control are called controlled variables or decision variables. Factors that the decision maker is not able to influence or change (parameters of the external environment, some parameters of the control object itself) are called uncontrollable variables or parameters (constraints).

Having a mathematical model of a control object, you can solve various problems: evaluate certain solutions, conduct research “what will happen if...”, etc. Of great interest are problems associated with finding the best possible solution, which are called optimization problems.

To assess the quantitative influence of controlled variables on the criterion, it is necessary to either have or create a mathematical model of the control object, i.e. obtain analytical relationships (formulas). If the optimality criterion is denoted by Z, and the decision variables by (x1, x2, ..., xn), then the relationship between the criterion and the controlled variables can be symbolically represented as a certain function (1), which in optimization problems is usually called the objective function. Such models are called decision models.

In practice, the following types of models, covered in detail in the literature, are most often used: statistical (probabilistic), simulation, network, linear and mathematical programming, queuing theory (queuing), inventory, etc.

1.4. Basic Decision Model

Decision-making models must contain the basic elements of the process itself, such as the goal, alternatives, state of the external environment, and the time aspect. The classification of decision-making models is based on the manifestation of the above-mentioned elements of the model.

A clear way to structure and represent decision problems under uncertain expectations is the basic decision theory model. The essential elements of this model are the result matrix (Fig. 4) and the objective function.

Rice. 4. Results matrix

In the results matrix, the subject presents the evaluated action alternatives (A1, A2,..., AA), and the predicate presents the states of the external environment (S1, S2,..., SS), which the decision maker considers as possible, and for each of them indicators of the probability of the occurrence of this state (w(S1),..., w(Ss)) are put into correspondence. The elements of the matrix are the results, and Eas (a = 1, 2,..., A; s = 1, 2,..., S) means the result that will be achieved if alternative Aa is chosen and the state of the external environment Ss occurs .

The decision-making model should more or less accurately represent the following elements:

action alternatives (AA);

results (Eas);

state of the external environment (taking into account the probability of its impact on the results of the decision) (SS, w(Ss));

target function of the decision maker (Z,F).

Organizational activities aimed at managing the decision-making process are carried out by a higher-ranking unit by influencing certain determinants of the decision. There are primary and secondary determinants (factors) of decision making. When compiling a list of primary determinants, they are based directly on the elements of the decision-making model.

The primary determinants (factors) of the solution are presented in Fig. 5.

Rice. 5. Primary determinants of the decision

The behavior of a decision maker in a choice situation depends on: the type of model (EM); on the number of alternatives covered by the model (AA); from target indicators (values) according to which alternatives are evaluated (Eas); from the probability indicators set in the model in accordance with the occurrence of certain states of the external environment (w(SS)); from its objective function (ZF);

from the decision maker's forecasting function (PF); from the information structure of the decision maker (IS).

The decision maker's forecasting function (PF) characterizes the probabilities that he puts in correspondence with the states of the external environment under alternative information structures (IS); it shows how information is transformed into a (subjective) probability assessment.

The determinant of the decision “probabilistic assessment of the occurrence of environmental conditions” (w(SS)) is in turn determined by the determinants “information structure” (IS) and “forecasting function” (PF).

Secondary determinants of the solution are presented in Fig. 6. The first group of secondary determinants characterizes the (subjective) qualities of the decision maker, the second describes the objective limitations of the external environment within which the decision maker operates.

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Motivation.

The motivation (degree of motivation) of an individual to engage in certain behavior (aimed at achieving results) (for example, searching for alternatives, constructing and solving a specific decision-making model) is determined by:

the structure of his needs;

his expectations about the possibility of such behavior to contribute to the satisfaction of his needs.

The structure of needs is characterized by the types of individual needs (for example, the need for material goods, social contacts, recognition and power) and the “strength” of these needs.

The motivation of an individual depends (also) on his assessment of his own qualifications, his fundamental attitude towards the future and the state of the external environment. These determinants can influence both the structure of needs and the structure of outcome expectations.

Qualification. Qualifications are characterized by the secondary determinants of “knowledge”, “cognitive abilities”, “social skills” and “physical skills”. Although the decision maker's knowledge and skills influence his motivation, it seems appropriate to consider them as secondary determinants. Even if two individuals have the same degree of motivation, they may make different decisions due to differences in their ability to receive and process information.

Knowledge is especially clearly characterized by knowledge of facts, theories (relations like “if..., then...”) and decision-making models. Cognitive abilities characterized primarily by creativity and the ability to collect, accumulate and logically process information consistently. Social skills are understood, for example, as the ability to express one’s feelings, motivate and lead employees, participate in cooperation, and gain sympathy (Staehle, 1989, p. 191). Physical skills are characterized by the ability to work with objects and means of labor.

A principled attitude towards the future. Depending on whether this attitude is optimistic or pessimistic, the probabilistic assessments of the consequences of the alternatives being evaluated, which the decision maker makes on the basis of the information available to him, will differ.

The key problem of an organization is to manage the interrelated object, organizational and communication decisions of employees in such a way as to achieve the organization's goal.

On the dependence of primary determinants on secondary ones. The motivation of a decision maker, as a rule, affects not only his goal function, but also the values of all primary determinants of the decision. As a rule, increasing the level of motivation aimed at performing work leads to new qualities of management decisions.

These equations are supplemented by a system of restrictions that limit the freedom of action of the decision maker.

The normative decision-making model is based on economic assumptions:

1) The decision maker strives to achieve known and agreed upon goals. Problems are identified and precisely formulated;

2) The decision maker strives for certainty, obtaining all the necessary information, all permissible options and possible consequences are calculated;

3) the criteria for evaluating alternatives are known. The decision maker chooses the option that has the greatest economic benefit for the organization;

4) The decision maker acts rationally and logically approaches the assessment of options, prioritization, his choice, the best way consistent with achieving the organization's goals.

The value of the model is that it encourages managers to rational decisions. The normative model is most adequate to programmed decisions, situations of certainty or risk, when there is access to all the necessary information, which allows one to calculate the probability of outcomes.

Descriptive models are based on empirical observations, they contain a small amount of elements and explain economic relationships as they exist in the real world, but in a simplified form. The descriptive model describes the actual decision-making process in difficult situations(unprogrammed decisions and situations of uncertainty and uncertainty) when managers, even if they wanted to, cannot make an economically rational decision.

The assumptions on which the descriptive model is based are:

1) the goals of the decision, as a rule, are not clear and are in conflict with each other. Managers are often unaware of the problems and opportunities that exist in the organization;

2) rational procedures are not always used, and if they are used, they are limited to a simplified view of the problem that does not reflect the complexity of real events;

3) the boundaries of managers’ search for various options are determined by human, information and resource limitations;

4) most managers are content with acceptable rather than maximizing decisions. This is partly due to the limited information available to them, partly due to the vagueness of the maximization criteria.

The descriptive model is descriptive in nature, reflects the real process of making management decisions in complex situations, and does not dictate how they should be made in accordance with the theoretical ideal; it takes into account human and other limitations that influence the rationality of choice.

The political decision-making model (Carnegie model) was formulated by G.A. Simon (H. Simon), J. March (J. March), R. Cyert (R. Cyert), whose scientific works prove that in organizations managers can make their choice of strategy in coalitions - informal alliances between several managers, equally understanding the organization's goals and problem priorities.

This model is used, as a rule, to make non-programmed decisions in conditions of uncertainty, limited information and lack of consensus about what goal to pursue or what line of behavior to choose.

The creation of a coalition of managers is necessary for two reasons: the goals are not clear and compatible and managers cannot reach a consensus on the priorities of problems; managers do not have sufficient time, resources and intellectual capabilities to identify the problem. Therefore, coalition building facilitates the development of solutions that are supported by all stakeholders. When considering problems, the coalition will make a decision that is perceived as satisfactory, and not as maximum level achieving the goal. Because all managers are concerned about current problems and their quick solutions, i.e. as defined by R. Kayert and J. March, they engage in problem-oriented search, which means that managers are looking for a solution that can quickly neutralize the problem.

The Carnegie model is closest to the reality in which managers and all other decision makers work: decisions are complex and require the participation of many people, information often does not lead to clear conclusions, and disagreement and even conflict about how to solve a problem is commonplace. Goals and alternatives are developed through debate. Decisions are the result of discussions and "negotiations"

between members of coalitions.

The descriptive model and the Carnegie model, as well as intuition, are more adequate to a turbulent external environment, when decisions are made quickly, under conditions of high uncertainty.

A model of the incremental decision-making process was proposed by G. Mintzberg (McGill University, Montreal). This model can be used to make unprogrammed decisions and the focus of solving organizational problems is on the structural sequence of actions taken throughout the decision-making process. The main decision consists of a series of “small” choices, because

the organization passes through several key points in the decision-making process, where it is possible to encounter “barriers”, which G. Mintzberg called interruptions in the decision process. Interrupting the decision-making process means that the organization must return to previous decisions and repeat the cycle (stages of the decision-making process), trying to offer some new courses of action (alternatives). These cycles, or “loops”, according to G. Mintzberg, of the process of finding a solution (alternatives, strategies, courses of action) are one of the ways to train the organization’s personnel, to find an understanding of what alternatives and solutions need to be implemented.

The “garbage bin” model was developed by M. Cohen, J. March, and J. Olsen to explain decision-making patterns under conditions of extreme uncertainty, which the above-mentioned authors termed “organized anarchy".

"Organized anarchy" does not rely on the normal vertical hierarchy and rational bureaucracy to make management decisions.

It is characterized by three features: problematic preferences;

unclear and poorly understood decision-making technology; staff turnover. “Organized anarchy” is characteristic of organizations characterized by frequent change and a collegial, non-bureaucratic environment.

A unique feature of the garbage can model is that the decision-making process does not appear as a series of steps that begin with a problem and end with a solution. Decisions in this model are the result of independent streams of events occurring within the organization that are relevant to the decision-making process: a stream of problems, a stream of potential solutions, decision-makers, and favorable opportunities for choice.

Taking into account the concept of four streams, the overall decision-making pattern in an organization becomes random. Problems, proposed solutions, participants, and chosen solutions all flow through the organization because in a sense, the organization is a big wastebasket in which all these flows are mixed. If the problem, the solution, and the decision maker are accidentally connected at one point, then the problem can be resolved; but if the solution does not fit the given problem, then the problem may remain unsolved. Thus, considering the organization as a whole in an extreme degree of uncertainty, one can see problems that are not being solved and solutions that are not being implemented, because the situation is so complex that solutions, problems and results are completely independent of each other.

Consequences of using the garbage bin model:

1) solutions can be proposed even when the problem is not identified and does not even exist;

2) choices can be made without solving problems;

3) problems may remain unresolved in the organization;

4) but some problems are being solved.

During computer modeling under the conditions of the “garbage box” model, the most important problems were often solved, because it became possible to connect problems with relevant solutions and participants in a way that made good choice management decision.

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“A method is a way of achieving a goal, solving a specific problem, a set of techniques or operations for practical and theoretical knowledge of reality.” Methods are specified in a methodology that describes specific techniques and means, for example, for obtaining and processing information on the problem being solved. Methodology as “the study of methods of cognition and transformation of reality” identifies four main methods: comparison, analysis, synthesis and abstraction.

Comparison – establishing the differences and similarities of the problems, factors, limitations, alternatives, etc. under study.

Analysis is the mental decomposition of the general into parts (an object into its constituent elements).

Synthesis is the mental unification into a single whole of selected, analyzed elements.

Abstraction is the selection of essential elements in the analyzed object.

The methodology of management decisions uses all of the above methods and forms specific techniques for making management decisions.

Management decision-making methods are regulated actions and methods for solving management problems of choosing alternatives. A systematic approach in relation to this process allows us to formulate the composition of the subprocesses (stages) of searching for a solution and, by establishing succession relationships between the stages, to build the so-called systemic sequence of decision-making. In the very general view this sequence includes the stages of analysis (diagnosis), goal identification and design (searching for means to achieve goals), implementation and evaluation of results and is applicable for decision-making in a wide variety of complex systems management.

The classification of methods for justifying management decisions in the formation of economic policy, built on the basis of the systemic sequence of decision-making, is presented in Fig. 7.

Rice. 7. Classification of methods for making management decisions

A set of interrelated methods of making management decisions aimed at solving a certain class of management problems is called management technologies, methodological tools for organizing and regulating business processes and is the main element of the management process.

Review questions

1. Describe the role of management decisions in management processes.

2. Expand the concepts of “problem”, “situation”, “goal” and their meaning in the process of making management decisions.

3. Describe the algorithm for making management decisions.

4. Approaches to management decision making (intuitive, judgment-based and rational).

5. Decision-making models.

6. The essence of modeling in the decision-making process.

7. Basic provisions of the normative (classical) decision-making model.

8. Basic provisions of the descriptive decision-making model.

9. Basic provisions of the political model (Carnegie model) of decision making.

10. Basic provisions of the model of incremental decision-making process.

11. Basic provisions of the “black box” model by M. March, J. Olsen, M. Cohen.

12. The structure of the basic decision-making model, its main elements.

13. Primary determinants (factors) of the decision.

14. Secondary determinants (factors) of decisions.

Chapter 2. METHODS FOR DIAGNOSIS OF PROBLEMS

After studying Chapter 2, the bachelor should:

methods for diagnosing management situations;

the essence of situational analysis, its stages;

the essence of constructing a scenario for the development of a management situation;

the importance of forecasting for diagnosing problems;

analyze management situations;

apply economic and mathematical methods, economic analysis, theories of queues and inventories, for diagnostics problematic situation;

methods for constructing a tree of problems, a tree of solutions and tasks;

methods of situational analysis;

methods of qualitative and quantitative forecasting.

2.1. The concept and significance of a problem in the process of making a management decision Diagnosis of problems is an analysis of the main cause-and-effect relationships of a specific situation. There are two ways to look at the problem:

firstly, a problem is considered to be a situation when the set goals are not achieved; and, secondly, a problem is considered a situation of potential opportunity (something should have happened, but did not happen). In this case, the situation is understood as the real state of affairs (the state of the control object) relative to the set goal.

Problem diagnosis (identification) is a complex process and is performed in several stages:

1. Awareness and identification of symptoms of difficulties or available opportunities. In this case, a symptom refers to the degree of manifestation of the problem and its consequences. Symptom (from Greek - case, coincidence, sign).

2. Collection and analysis of external (relative to the organization) and internal information.

3. Isolation of relevant information is the selection of data related to a given problem, purpose, time period, etc. (English: relevant - relevant to the case, issue).

4. Identifying the causes of the problem; root cause analysis. Reason (Greek, Lat. causa) - this word can have different concepts:

1) a reason, a pretext for some action; 2) a phenomenon that causes or conditions the occurrence of another phenomenon. A consequence in different fields of knowledge is an action (result, consequence) that follows from/after (in time) some cause. Consequence (logic) – conclusion, conclusion, judgment derived from other judgments.

Description of the problem using answers to questions that allow managers to identify the main reasons for the events that occurred: who, what, when, where, why, how, how much (the English abbreviation for this stage is 5W2H). The result of this stage is detailed answers from managers to the following questions: How severe is the state of instability in which the company finds itself? When did it happen? Where did it happen? How did this happen? Who did this happen to? How quickly should the problem be resolved? What are the cause-and-effect relationships? What actions led to undesirable results?

5. Problem analysis. The result of this stage of problem diagnosis is to determine the type of problem. Peter F. Drucker1 identifies four types of problems: 1) typical; 2) typical in essence, but unique for a given organ

Drucker P., Maciarello D. Management: Trans. from English – M.: LLC “I.D. Williams", 2010.

tions; 3) unique; 4) new typical problems. Typical problems are solved using programmed solutions, i.e. using already known rules or principles for a specific situation. Unique problems require unprogrammed solutions.

2.2. Problem decomposition methods

The main methods of problem analysis are graphical. Construction: “problem tree”, “goals and objectives tree”, “decision tree” and Ishikawa “fishbone” structural diagram.

Tree of problems. The term “tree” (Fig. 8) in this context implies the use of a hierarchical structure obtained by dividing the general problem into the main type of problem (trunk), other types present (branches), subtypes (branches) and the problem itself (leaves).

Rice. 8. “Tree of Problems”

The “problem tree” method is aimed at obtaining a relatively stable structure of the problem. To achieve this, when constructing the initial version of the structure, patterns were taken into account and the principles of forming hierarchical structures were used.

Advantages of the “problem tree” method:

The problem tree allows you to present a significant amount of information about management issues in a compact form.

The problem tree copes well with the tasks of identifying and ranking problems existing in an organization, as well as with classification tasks, i.e. distribution of problems according to known types of problems.

The problem tree allows you to clearly see the relationship and interconnection of various types of problems.

The problem tree helps to identify the central – root – management problem and monitor its impact on various types of problems.

To build a “problem tree”, it is necessary to divide the problem set associated with each type of problem into subsets, i.e. decompose problems according to their types.

The sequence of constructing the “problem tree”:

1. Identify and formulate the main problem of the organization’s management.

2. Identify the main set of problems of the organization.

3. Determine the predominant type of problem.

4. Analyze the relationship and interconnection of various types of problems.

5. Divide the problem set into subsets.

6. Distribute the resulting groups by type of problem.

A tree of goals and objectives is a detailed set of goals and objectives for making and implementing decisions, distributed across levels, built according to a logical scheme: “goals - programs - tasks that need to be solved to achieve these goals, - measures to ensure the solution of tasks, - resources necessary for holding events" (Fig. 9, 10). The “Tree of Goals and Objectives” is used in program-target planning and management in the development of targeted comprehensive programs.

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Rice. 10. “Task tree”

A decision tree is a schematic representation of the process of making management decisions on a specific problem, depicted graphically in the form of a tree structure (Fig. 11). Used in management at the preparatory stages of the decision-making process to select the best course of action.

Rice. 11. “Decision tree”

Ishikawa fishbone structure diagram. Construction of a cause-and-effect fishbone diagram includes the following steps: selection of an effective feature; selection of the main reasons – “big bones”; choice of secondary causes – “middle bones”; selection (description) of tertiary causes – “small bones”; ranking factors according to their importance and highlighting the most important ones. The diagram of a cause-and-effect fishbone diagram is shown in Fig. 12.

This method can be used to analyze the quality of management decisions and individual stages of the decision-making process, because consists in the formation of quality indicators characterizing the result of the alternative, and factor indicators.

Rice. 12. Ishikawa fishbone structure diagram

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Comparison is the most common way to analyze the state of a managed object: target (planned) and actual (real) according to a certain sum of parameters. There are several forms of comparison: with a plan; with the past period; with the best (benchmarking); with average data. The main problem of comparison is the comparability of data, which is especially important when making comparisons with previous periods, comparisons based on average data. Economic analysis as a science has developed a sufficient number of techniques for comparing data.

In Fig. 13 presents an algorithm for identifying a problem situation (presence or absence of a problem).

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Factor (economic) analysis is understood as a gradual transition from the initial factor system (resulting indicator) to the final factor system, the disclosure of a full set of direct, quantitatively measurable factors that influence the use of the resulting indicator. Statement of the problem of factor analysis: let y=f(xi) – some function characterizing the change in some effective indicator or process; x1, x2, … xn – factors on which the function y=f(xi) depends. A functional deterministic form of connection between the studied indicator y and a set of factors x1, x2, … xn is given: y=f(x1, x2, … xn). Let the indicator y receive an increment (y) over the analyzed period. It is required to determine what part of the numerical increment of the function y=f(x1, x2, ... xn) is due to the increment of each argument (factor). The problem formulated in this way is a statement of the problem of direct deterministic factor analysis.

Examples of direct deterministic factor analysis are:

analysis of the influence of labor productivity and the number of employees on the volume of products produced (y is the volume of products; x, z are factors; the functional form of the connection is given y=x*z); analysis of the influence of the amount of profit, the cost of fixed production assets and standardized working capital on the level of profitability (y – level of profitability; x, z, v – relevant factors; given functional form of connection y=x/(z+v).

2.4. Modeling methods

The main modeling methods used at the stage of diagnosing problems include: economic-mathematical modeling (EMM), economic analysis, queuing theory, inventory theory.

Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the use of single-factor and multi-factor models. The following types of single-factor models are used: linear models, parabola and hyperbola; multifactor models: linear and logarithmic. The most commonly used linear models are single-factor (2.4.1) and multi-factor, (2.4.2) where a0, a1, ..., an are the parameters of the equations, x, x1 ..., xn are independent variables when making decisions, y is the dependent variable, describing the consequences of decisions made. The task is to determine the parameters of the equation a0, a1, …, an..

Queuing theory (queuing theory) is applied to decisions related to waiting situations. It helps to make a decision that establishes a certain balance between the amount of lost profits (income) and the amount of additional costs in service organizations. Customers who don't want to wait in line represent lost profits. Waiting times can be reduced by increasing the number of operators, serving the system, which leads to increased costs.

The calculations are based on the well-known Poisson formula:

(2.4.3) where Pn is the probability of the appearance of the nth number of clients; e – base of natural logarithm, e = 2.7183...; – average number of clients; n – number of clients per unit of time.

The main characteristics of the queuing theory model are the number of service channels, the average service time for one client, the number of clients, waiting time for service, etc. Based on the calculations performed, the required number of service channels is determined with an acceptable, from the client’s point of view, waiting for service.

The theory of reserves was developed at the beginning of the twentieth century, and widespread use began in the 40s. Best of luck, as a rule, reached Japanese enterprises. The use of inventory theory makes it possible to establish a balance between the costs of creating inventories and the costs associated with losses in the event of a disruption in the production process. Inventories are called “idle resources”, they are subject to damage, theft, obsolescence, etc., in addition, they increase the costs of working capital of the enterprise. Inventory theory allows you to determine the economic order quantity (EOQ) using a formula developed by F. Harrison in 1915.

2OD Q, (H iP) where Q is the economically viable stock size; O – order cost; D – annual reserves; H – holding cost;

i – accruals to the value of stored inventories (defined as the ratio of the income that could be received from investing capital for other purposes to the value of the inventories); P – cost of stored inventories (price).

EOQ is the quantity of inventory that minimizes the total cost of holding inventory.

Mathematical models of inventory management (IM) allow you to find the optimal level of inventory of a certain product, minimizing the total costs of purchasing, placing and delivering an order, storing the product, as well as losses from its shortage.

Economic analysis operates with such well-known concepts as fixed and variable costs, sales revenue, price per unit of production, minimum sales volume or break-even point, profitability threshold, margin of financial strength, strength of operating (production) leverage, etc.

FC Qmin, (p VC) where Qmin is the minimum sales volume (break-even point); FС – fixed costs; P – unit price; VС – variable costs per unit of production.

The listed concepts are used to model situations of this type, what will be profitable if sales volume, costs, price, etc. change.

The break-even point can be determined graphically, as shown in Fig. 14.

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The slope of the gross receipts curve depends on the price of the product.

As the firm increases the price of a product, the slope of the gross cost curve becomes steeper and, accordingly, the firm can reduce sales while maintaining its target profit.

Break-even condition:

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Forecasting methods are used to anticipate changes and consequences of the influence of the external and internal environment on the organization and are divided into quantitative and qualitative.

Qualitative forecasting methods mainly include demand forecasting methods, such as consumer opinion, buyer opinion, opinion of experienced managers, and market tests. Using these methods, they determine how the volume and structure of sales will change depending on the price of the product, location and income level of customers and other factors.

Quantitative forecasting methods include time series analysis (TSA) and correlation-regression analysis (CRA). AVR allows you to draw conclusions about the current change in indicators over time.

The following model is usually used in forecast calculations:

where Y is the predicted object; T – main trend (tendency); C – cyclical fluctuation around the trend; S – seasonal fluctuations; R – unexplained fluctuations (forecast errors).

Forecasting based on time series analysis (TSA) uses the methods of exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing taking into account a linear trend, exponential smoothing taking into account the seasonal additive component.

The method of correlation and regression analysis (CRA) is based on the use of causal forecasting models that contain a number of variables related to the predicted variable.

The basis of correlation analysis is the calculation of correlation coefficients – +1 r -1. These coefficients indicate the degree, or strength, of a linear relationship.

After determining the relationship between these variables, a statistical model is built, which is used for forecasting. The most commonly used quantitative model is the linear regression analysis model.

where y is the value of the independent variable;

a1 – coefficient determining the angle of inclination of the straight line;

a0 – segment cut off by a straight line on the y-axis;

x is the independent variable.

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Situational analysis is a complex technology for preparing, making and implementing management decisions, which is based on the analysis of a single management situation. Methods of situational analysis are designed to assist decision-makers in analyzing the situation, establishing the factors that determine its development, formulating criteria and limitations for making management decisions. In fact, these methods make it possible to collect and process information necessary to diagnose the problem and formulate criteria and limitations for making management decisions.

Methods of situational analysis involve the generation of economic scenarios and deterministic factor modeling of the system's response to the generated scenario, measured by the financial results of the system.

All scenarios in the population are assigned probability weights. Thus, the final expected financial result is interpreted as the expectation of a random variable of the indicator, distributed in accordance with the initial weight distribution of input scenarios (Fig. 15).

Rice. 15. Stages of situational analysis

The method of situational analysis uses a new situation of the control object as an object of study. Typical problems of a situational nature are, for example, international conflicts and crises. When dealing with other types of problems, other methods are effective. Situational analysis (SA) allows you to organize and direct the process of active collection, assessment and processing of existing primary information and the reproduction of new, secondary information of both analytical and forecast nature. The situation analysis is carried out in three stages.

Review questions

1. Define the terms “method”, “technique”, “methodology”.

2. List the characteristics of methods for diagnosing problems.

3. What is the essence of situational analysis?

4. List the stages of situation analysis.

5. What is modeling?

6. The essence of economic and mathematical modeling.

7. The essence and significance of queuing theory.

8. Inventory management: determining the economically viable amount of inventory.

9. Graph of inventory change cycles in the Wilson model.

10. Wilson model inventory management cost schedule.

11. Basic concepts of economic analysis (break-even point).

12. Break-even conditions.

13. Qualitative forecasting methods.

14. Quantitative forecasting methods.

15. Methods of correlation and regression analysis in the theory of decision making.

Chapter 3. METHODS OF IDENTIFYING (GENERATING) ALTERNATIVES

After studying Chapter 3, the bachelor should:

stages of the idea generation process;

organize the process of generating alternatives;

methods for identifying alternatives (options) for making management decisions (brainstorming, Delphi, etc.);

methods for ranking alternatives.

3.1. Brainstorming method

The method is based on the psychological laws of collective activity and is based on the fact that the creative activity of each person is often restrained for one reason or another, among which various barriers occupy a significant place: psychological and communicative, social and pedagogical.

The target orientation of brainstorming (brain attack) involves ensuring the process of generating ideas without analyzing and discussing them with participants, and the success of its implementation depends on compliance with two main principles:

1) a group can produce ideas of higher quality when working together than when the same people work individually, due to the synergistic effect;

2) if the group is in a state of generating ideas, then the process of creative thinking cannot be slowed down by a premature subjective assessment of these ideas.

The essence of the method is to give each group member the right to express the most different ideas regarding options for solving a problem, regardless of their validity, feasibility and logic.

The more different offers, the better. Participants in the discussion are familiarized with information about the nature of the problem in advance. All proposals are heard without criticism or evaluation, and their analysis is carried out centrally after the completion of the process of hearing options based on the notes made.

As a result, a list is formed in which all submitted proposals are structured according to certain parameters-constraints, as well as according to their effectiveness.

When brainstorming (storming), they deal with an unlimited discussion, which is carried out mainly in groups of 4-10 participants. It is also possible to brainstorm alone. The greater the difference between the participants, the more fruitful the result (due to different experiences, temperaments, work areas).

Participants do not require deep and lengthy preparation or experience in this method. However, the quality of the ideas put forward and the time spent will indicate how familiar the individual participants or target groups are with the principles and ground rules of the method. It is positive that the participants have knowledge and experience in the field in question. The duration of a brainstorming session can be selected from a few minutes to several hours; the generally accepted duration is 20-30 minutes.

– – –

The purpose of the method is to obtain consistent, high-confidence information from a group of experts. The method was developed by employees of the American company Rand Corporation in 1964.

It attempts to eliminate the contradiction that arises when organizing the work of a group of experts. Its essence lies in the fact that if experts are interviewed independently of each other, deviations within large limits are possible. And if you allow experts to interact and exchange opinions in the process of work, this can lead to the appearance of assessments imposed by authoritative colleagues.

Therefore, when applying the Delphi method, a procedure is carried out to ensure the exchange of information about arguments and answers, without direct interaction between experts. Direct discussions of experts are replaced by individual surveys, taking place according to a specific program in several stages (Fig. 16).

– – –

The survey steps are repeated as many times as necessary to reach an agreed upon decision.

The Delphi method is often used in cases where gathering a group is not possible. Moreover, in accordance with the methodology, group members are not allowed to meet and exchange opinions on the problem being solved; independence of opinions is ensured. However, the time required to develop solutions is growing significantly.

Development is carried out in the following sequence:

group members are asked to answer a detailed list of questions on the issue under consideration;

each participant answers questions independently and anonymously;

the results of the answers are collected in the center, and on their basis an integral document is drawn up containing all the proposed solutions;

each group member receives a copy of this material;

familiarization with the proposals of other participants may change your opinion about possible solutions;

the previous two steps are repeated as many times as necessary to reach an agreed solution.

This method is applicable when there are no time restrictions for developing a decision and agreed upon decisions are made by the experts themselves.

3.3. Heuristic methods

Heuristics is a science that studies productive creative thinking (heuristic activity). Heuristic methods are special methods used in the process of discovering something new. Heuristics are experience-based: rules, strategies, successful techniques, simplifications or other means that significantly limit the search space for solutions in complex problems.

Heuristic methods are based on the effects of “insight” and synergy, typical conditions Applications of these methods are as follows: lack of time to substantiate the problem situation, overload with information that complicates the process of processing it.

The most well-known heuristics are the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, and the anchoring and matching heuristic.

Availability heuristic: people evaluate events that are currently easier to retrieve from memory as more likely than information that is more difficult to retrieve. It is considered easier to retrieve from memory what a person can vividly, figuratively remember, and what happened quite recently. The representativeness heuristic understands the degree of correspondence or similarity between a sample and the general population, an element and a class or category, an action and an acting person, a consequence and a cause or, more generally speaking, the correspondence between the result and the model. People consider events more likely if they correspond to a common prototype, that is, a typical representative of a concept, and at the same time, in their assessments they often ignore significant features of the general population. They neglect the initial data, the size of the group and the probability of attack.

Finally, people make their judgments using the anchoring and matching heuristic. Focusing on an (insignificant) initial value, they make incorrect assessments or, if new information is available and taken into account, they do not sufficiently “coordinate” the assessments with the existing state of affairs.

3.4. Methods of morphological analysis

Method of morphological analysis. The term “morphology” (the study of form, gr. morphe - form and logos - study) was introduced in 1796 by Goethe, the founder of the morphology of organisms, the study of the form and structure of plants and animals.

Subsequently, the morphology of humans, soils, etc. appeared. The method is based on combining selected elements or their characteristics in the process of finding solutions to problems. This method identifies all possible elements on which the solution to a problem may depend, lists the possible values of these elements, and then begins the process of generating alternatives by searching through all possible combinations of these values. Morphological analysis was first used to solve technical problems in 1942, when the Swiss astronomer F. Zwicky began developing rocket engines at the Aerogemn Engineering Corporation.

The construction of morphological matrices allows you to quickly and accurately navigate the variety of concepts and factors. Classification is one of essential elements creative activity.

When using this research method, the object must be divided into functional parts (functional and morphological characteristics), such that without them the object will not perform its functions. Then you should write out the morphological characteristics separately and write down information about them (embodiments) without connection with the object (product), i.e. apply morphological characteristics to other similar products. Analysis of the obtained options reveals combinations of them that may be missed during a normal search.

3.5. Synectics method

Synectics method. William Gordon (author of synectics), trying to transform the productive process occurring in the subconscious when solving a problem from implicit to explicit, from spontaneous to consciously controlled, in 1960 introduced a conscious search for analogies within the framework of a certain procedure (Fig. 17).

The term “synectics” means the combination of dissimilar elements, the connection of various, often apparently incompatible parts. The very idea of synectics is to unite individual “creators” into a single group to jointly pose and solve problems.

Generally speaking, synectics includes two basic processes:

1) turning the unfamiliar into the familiar;

2) transformation of the familiar into the unfamiliar.

In a union situation, participants are required to express their thoughts and feelings about the creative task at hand.

– – –

To activate and manage thinking, Gordon used four types of analogies: direct; personal; symbolic; fantastic.

Therefore, the method is based on the use of unconscious mechanisms that manifest themselves in a person’s thinking at the moment of creative activity.

Unlike brainstorming, this requires special and lengthy preparation of the group. The group's work takes place in two stages. The task of the first is to make the unusual familiar. To do this, by generalizing various situations, an unusual problem or object is placed in a familiar context using the method of analogies, and its unusualness disappears. After this, the second stage begins, the task of which is to make the familiar unusual (return to the original problem).

3.6. Methods of collective associations

In the association method, the main sources for generating ideas are randomly selected concepts and the resulting associations and metaphors (Fig. 18).

To create associations and generate ideas, it is advisable to use various metaphors: binary analogue metaphors; metaphors, catachreses, containing contradictions; riddle metaphors. The technology of free associations is based on such principles as free associations, anti-conformism, delayed critical analysis.

Method of garlands of associations. The method of garlands of associations and metaphors is a development of the method of focal objects. First, a definition of synonyms for an object is given, as a result of which a garland of synonyms is formed. All elements of the garland of synonyms are combined with each element of the garland of random nouns.

3.7. Methods using cards

Methods based on the use of cards allow for the anonymity of participants in group work, so they are often used when there are conflicts in the group putting forward ideas. Conflicts do not allow the creative, constructive nature of decisions to manifest themselves. In addition, verbal descriptions discipline participants by requiring them to express their thoughts concisely, and allow them to visualize the process of generating ideas, thereby connecting additional channels of perception and creating additional associations.

Methods using cards include: the Crawford questionnaire method; method 635; generic resemblance diagram; dismemberment technique;

These methods are discussed in detail in.

Rice. 18. Structural scheme method of collective associations Questions for review

1. List the characteristics of methods for generating alternatives.

Methods for connecting alternatives.

2. The essence of the brainstorming method.

3. The essence of the Delphi method.

4. Purpose of heuristic methods.

5. Methods of morphological analysis.

6. Possibilities of using the method of collective associations.

7. Purpose of synectics methods.

Chapter 4. METHODS OF ASSESSMENT AND SELECTION OF ALTERNATIVES

After studying Chapter 4, the bachelor should:

concepts of “decision-making environment”;

the essence of risk and uncertainty in decision-making processes;

the essence of expert methods;

determine the nature of the decision-making environment (certainty, risk, uncertainty);

build a decision tree and matrix;

methods of decision-making under conditions of certainty (limit analysis, incremental profit analysis, linear programming);

methods of decision-making under risk conditions;

methods of decision making under conditions of environmental uncertainty.

4.1. The concept of management decision-making environment

Business decisions usually require choices between different strategies. Often such choices are made in environments over which the decision maker has little or no control. The basic term “essence of change” is used to denote such conditions. Decisions thus directly depend on the decision maker's knowledge of the essence of the phenomenon and how each of the strategies under consideration can be implemented under a certain state of this essence. The states of knowledge of the decision maker can be classified as states of certainty, risk, and uncertainty.

The differences between certainty, risk and uncertainty reflect differences in the degree of knowledge of the decision maker. If we imagine the state of his knowledge as a spectrum line, then at one end there will be certainty (complete knowledge), and at the other - uncertainty (complete lack of knowledge). Risk (partial knowledge) will lie between them. The position on the spectrum line will reflect the degree of certainty (or uncertainty) present.

The concept of certainty. Certainty is understood as a state of knowledge when the decision maker knows in advance the specific outcome for each alternative. In other words, the decision maker has comprehensive knowledge of the state of the environment and the results of each possible decision.

Risk concept. Risk is defined as a state of knowledge when one or more outcomes for each alternative are known and when the probability of each outcome occurring is reliably known to the decision maker. Under risk conditions, the decision maker has some objective knowledge of the action environment and is able to objectively predict the likely nature of the phenomena and the outcome or return on each of the possible strategies.

Uncertainty concept. Uncertainty is a state of knowledge in which one or more alternatives have a range of possible outcomes, the probabilities of which are either unknown or meaningless. Therefore, unlike risk, uncertainty will be a subjective phenomenon. Uncertainty is often caused by rapid changes in the structural variables and market phenomena that determine economic and social environment actions of the company.

4.2. Methods for selecting alternatives under conditions of certainty

Under conditions of certainty, the decision maker knows everything about the possible states of the essence of the phenomena influencing the decision, and knows what decision will be made. The decision maker simply selects the strategy, course of action, or project that will produce the greatest return.

In general, decision making under conditions of certainty is aimed at finding the maximum return, either in the form of maximizing benefits (income, profit or utility) or minimizing costs. This search is called optimization analysis. Three optimization methods are used by the decision maker: marginal analysis, linear programming and incremental profit analysis.

Limit analysis. Under conditions of certainty, income and costs will be known for any level of production and sales. The task is to find their optimal ratio to maximize profits. Limit analysis allows us to do this. It uses the concepts of marginal cost and marginal revenue (Fig. 19). This figure shows revenue, cost, and profit curves typical of microeconomic theory.

Marginal revenue (MR) is defined as the additional revenue (change in total revenue) generated by selling an additional unit of a product. Graphically, it is expressed by the slope of the total revenue (TR) curve. Marginal cost (MC) is defined as the additional cost (change in total cost) to purchase or produce an additional unit of output. Graphically they are expressed by the slope of the total cost (TC) curve. We should also note the following.

1. At production levels Q1 and Q4, TR is exactly equal to TC, so profit is zero. Production volume less than Q1 or more than Q4 leads to losses (i.e., is characterized by negative profit).

Rice. 19. Concepts of marginal cost and marginal revenue

2. At production levels greater than Ql or less than Q4, the profit is positive.

3. Marginal analysis shows that as long as MR exceeds MC, producing and selling an additional unit of output will increase profits. Profit, accordingly, is maximized at the level of production at which MR = MC.

The equality MR = MC is true for Q3. At this level of production, if we draw one tangent for the TC curve and another for the MC curve, we will see that they will be parallel, i.e. the slopes of both curves will be equal. This means that at a production level of Q3, MR = MC. At this level of production, the slope of the profit function, or marginal profit (MR), will be zero.

Incremental analysis. Incremental profit analysis deals with any and all changes in revenues, costs and profits resulting from definite decision. Thus, the concept of incremental analysis covers changes in both the functions themselves and their values. The basic rule of decision is to accept any proposal that increases profits or reject any proposal that decreases them.

Linear programming. Linear programming models are distinguished by their clarity and relative simplicity. Their use in many practically important tasks related to decision making has proven to be highly effective, and therefore they have become quite widespread.

Some of the most well-known linear programming problems include:

problems on the distribution of limited resources (optimal planning problems);

problems about the optimal basket of products (problems about diet, problems about optimal mixing);

optimal cutting problems (materials, workpieces);

transport tasks;

assignment problems;

problems of optimization of financial flows;

problems of optimization of payment schedules.

An enterprise can produce n types of products Р1, Р2,..., Рn, having for this purpose m different resources R1, R2,..., Rm in quantities b1, b2,...bm, respectively. It is known that to produce a unit of output Pj it is necessary to spend aij units of resource Rij, i = 1, 2,..., m; j = 1, 2,..., n. In addition, the income from the sale of a unit of each type of product is known - c1, c2,..., cn, respectively, where cj is the cost of a unit of product Pj, for example, 1 piece, 1 ton, etc.

It is required to plan the production program - the volume of output of each type of product (in pieces, tons, etc.) in order to maximize the enterprise's income.

It is necessary to find a set of values (x1, x2,..., xn) that maximize the objective function

– – –

Developing solutions under risk conditions. Conditions of risk and uncertainty are characterized by the so-called conditions of multiple-valued expectations of the future situation in the external environment. In this case, the decision maker must make a choice of alternative (Ai), without having an accurate idea of the environmental factors and their influence on the result. Under these conditions, the outcome, the result of each alternative is a function of conditions - environmental factors (utility function), which the decision maker is not always able to foresee. A decision matrix, also called a payoff matrix, is used to present and analyze the results of selected alternative strategies. An example of a decision matrix is given in table. 1.

– – –

A1, A2, A3 – alternative action strategies; S1, S2, S3 – state of the economy (stability, recession, growth, etc.); E11; E12; E13; E21; ... E33; ... – results of decisions.

The numbers in the matrix cells represent the results of implementation Eij of strategy Ai under conditions Sj. Moreover, under risk conditions, the probability of the occurrence of Sj is known – wj(Sj).

Decision-making methods under risk conditions use the theory of choice, called utility theory. According to this theory, the decision maker selects Ai from the population (Ai) (i = 1 ... n) that maximizes the expected value of his utility function E,j.

In conditions of risk, when making a decision, the main point is to determine the probability of the occurrence of the environmental state Sj, i.e., the degree of risk.

After determining the probability wj(Sj) of the occurrence of the environmental state Sj, determine the expected cost of implementing each alternative, which is the weighted average cost E(Ai):

– – –

where E(Ai) is the result of the implementation of Ai; wj(Sj) – probability of occurrence of Sj.

The optimal strategy is the one that provides the highest expected cost:

– – –

Decision tree. The next method used to make decisions under risk is called a decision tree. It is used when it is necessary to make a sequential series of decisions. A decision tree is a graphical method that allows you to link decision points, possible strategies Ai, their consequences Ei,j with possible factors and environmental conditions. The construction of a decision tree starts with an earlier decision, then depicts the possible actions and consequences of each action (event), then makes a decision again (choosing a course of action), etc., until all logical consequences of the results are exhausted.

A decision tree is built using five elements:

1. The moment of decision making.

2. Point of occurrence of the event.

3. Relationship between decisions and events.

4. Probability of the event occurring (the sum of the probabilities at each point must be equal to 1).

5. Expected value (consequences) – a quantitative expression of each alternative, located at the end of the branch.

The simplest solution is a choice of two options – “Yes”

or “No” (Fig. 20).

Rice. 20. The simplest decision tree

Example 1. Formula J.

Paul Getty's "How to Get Rich": "Get Up Early"; "Work hard"; "You'll find oil!"

Modeling a sequence of decisions (Fig. 21):

1. Decision: You need to make a choice between “Wake up early” or “Sleep late” - the simplest choice.

2. Decision: A choice must be made between "Work Hard"

or “Through the Sleeves” is the simplest choice.

3. The event: “You will find oil” occurs with a certain probability, depending on the sequence of decisions made.

Rice. 21. Sequence (tree) of decisions made

4.4. Methods for selecting alternatives under conditions of uncertainty The choice of the best solution under conditions of uncertainty significantly depends on the degree of this uncertainty, i.e. depends on what information the decision maker has.

Since assumptions are subjective, there must be varying degrees of uncertainty on the part of the decision maker. There are two main approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The decision maker can use the information available to him and his own personal judgment and experience to identify and determine the subjective probabilities of possible external conditions, as well as the estimates implied by the payoffs, for each available strategy in each external condition. This, in essence, makes the conditions of uncertainty similar to the conditions of risk, and the decision-making procedure discussed earlier for conditions of risk is carried out in this case.

If the degree of uncertainty is too high, then the decision maker chooses not to make assumptions about the probabilities of various external conditions, i.e. this person may either not take into account the probabilities, or consider them as equal, which is practically the same thing.

If this approach is used, then there are four decision criteria to evaluate the proposed strategies:

a) Wald decision criterion, also called maximin;

b) Hurwitz’s alpha criterion for decision;

c) Savage's decision criterion, also called the minimax rejection criterion;

d) Laplace's decision criterion, also called Bayes' solution criterion.

Wald decision criterion The Wald criterion “calculate for the worst” (criterion of extreme pessimism or maxi-min) is a criterion that requires ensuring that the effect parameter value is equal to,

– – –

This criterion guides the decision maker towards worst conditions and recommends choosing the strategy for which the winnings are maximum. In other, more favorable conditions, the use of this criterion leads to loss of efficiency of the system or operation.

Hurwitz's alpha decision criterion This criterion recommends that when choosing a solution under conditions of uncertainty, one should not be guided by either extreme pessimism (always “count on the worst”, =0) or extreme optimism (“everything will be the best”, =1). A certain average solution (0 1) is recommended. This criterion has the form

– – –

where is a certain coefficient selected experimentally from the interval between 0 and 1.

The use of this coefficient introduces additional subjectivity into decision-making using the Hurwitz criterion.

Savage's decision criterion Savage's minimax criterion. In accordance with this criterion, if it is necessary to avoid a large risk under any conditions, then the optimal solution will be the one for which the risk, which is maximum under various conditions, turns out to be minimal.

Savage's minimax risk criterion. When using it, the minimum value of the maximum risk is ensured:

– – –

where the risk rij is determined by the expression: rij = j - eij, is the maximum possible gain.

The Savage criterion, like the Wald criterion, is a criterion of extreme pessimism, but only pessimism here is manifested in the fact that the maximum loss in gain is minimized, compared to what could be achieved under given conditions.

Laplace's decision criterion The Laplace criterion, or Bayesian criterion, states that if the probabilities of the state of the environment are unknown, then they should be accepted as equal. In this case, a strategy is selected that is characterized by the most expected cost, subject to equal probabilities. The Laplace criterion allows us to reduce the condition of uncertainty to the conditions of risk. Laplace's criterion is called the criterion of rationality, and it is suitable for strategic long term solutions, like all the above criteria.

In addition to the above four criteria, there are non-quantitative methods for making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, such as acquiring additional information, hedging, flexible investing, etc.

– – –

The expert evaluation method refers to a tool for quantitative assessment of the quality of alternatives in a poorly formalized problem situation.

Expert assessments are qualitative assessments based on information of a non-quantitative (qualitative) nature, which can only be obtained with the help of specialists - experts. An expert is a highly qualified specialist who relies on his knowledge, experience, intuition and ability to evaluate complex factors (phenomena) and is able to create his own well-founded (intuitive) model of the analyzed phenomenon (problem), if he has the necessary initial information for this. The essence of the expert assessment method is in the logical and intuitive analysis of the internal and external environment of the organization, the development of alternatives and quantitative assessment of their quality. The generalized opinion of experts serves as the basis for making a choice.

The following typical problems are solved using the expert assessment method:

Determining the composition of possible events in any system in a certain time interval;

Determination of event probabilities and time intervals in a set of events;

Structuring the problem field of the organization and determining the priority of problem solving;

Differentiation of management goals to tasks and determining the priority of their solution;

Generating alternatives;

Filtering multiple alternatives and assessing their preference.

Expert judgments are meaningful statements (determining the composition, structure, functionality of the system under study, entities and their attributes), a quantitative or qualitative assessment of an entity (i.e., determining quantitative and qualitative attributes and their values).

Expert ranking. Ranking is used in cases where direct assessment is impossible or impractical. In this case, the ranking of objects contains only information about which of them is more preferable, and does not contain information about how much or how many times one object is preferable to another.

Rank is the degree of difference on any basis, and ranking is the process of determining ranks, relative quantitative estimates of the degrees of difference on qualitative grounds.

The following ranking methods are used: simple ranking method; direct assessment method; method of paired comparisons, etc.

Simple ranking method. It consists in the fact that experts arrange ranking objects (for example, criteria) in decreasing order of their importance (say, for alternatives this is decreasing preference). Ranks are designated by numbers from 1 to n, where n is the number of ranks.

The sum of the ranks of Sn will be equal to the sum of the numbers in the natural series:

The direct assessment method consists of assigning the object of evaluation to a certain value on a rating scale (i.e., assigning a score to the object of evaluation in a certain interval), for example, from 0 to 10 - in accordance with preference for any characteristic or group of them (alternatives , for example, by preference; criteria - by importance; environmental factors - by influence; problems - by priority of solution).

The paired comparison method involves determining preferences for items located in the left column over items located in the top row. In this case, a matrix is compiled, the rows and columns of which place the objects being compared (Table 2).

– – –

One is written in cell A1,2, which means that element A1 receives a higher score than element A2. Accordingly, 0 is written in cell A2,1, and 1 is written in cell A1,4, and then, by summing the values in the rows, the ranks of the objects are obtained.

Review questions

1. What is the environment for making management decisions? How is it determined?

2. The essence of the concept of certainty (decision-making environment).

3. The essence of the concept of risk.

4. The essence of the concept of uncertainty.

5. Selection of alternatives under conditions of certainty.

6. Selection of alternatives under conditions of uncertainty.

7. Selection of alternatives under risk conditions.

8. The essence of expert methods.

Chapter 5. METHODS FOR IMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

After studying Chapter 5, the bachelor should:

methods for implementing management decisions;

types of control over the implementation of management decisions;

build a network matrix and a matrix of responsibility distribution;

draw up information tables for the implementation of management decisions;

develop control (monitoring) standards;

methods of planning the implementation of management decisions;

methods of organizing the implementation of management decisions;

methods of control (monitoring) of management decisions;

methods for assessing the implementation of management decisions.

The gap currently observed in management practice between the adoption of management decisions and their implementation, expressed both in insufficient efficiency and delay in the implementation of management decisions, is largely a consequence of insufficient attention in theory and practice to the development of methods of implementation and control and their mastery by managers. Methods for implementing management decisions include methods of planning, organizing and monitoring the implementation of decisions (Fig. 22).

Rice. 22. Classification of methods for implementing solutions

5.1. Methods for planning the implementation of management decisions The main tasks of developing a plan for implementing decisions are as follows: determining the complex necessary work, determining the number of performers, determining the required amount of resources, distribution of work, resources and performers by objects, tasks and deadlines. When preparing a plan for implementing a management decision, it is necessary to determine:

executors, the time frame allocated for the development and implementation of solutions, draw up instructions for those involved in the implementation of the solution; a diagram of interaction between hierarchical levels in an organization when solving assigned tasks, mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of decisions, a system of motivation (incentives) for the involved performers. The main methods used in drawing up a plan for the implementation of management decisions are the matrix of distribution of responsibilities and network modeling.

The matrix of distribution of responsibility is also a table in which the subject contains a list of tasks, actions to implement a management decision, and the predicate contains the names of officials and the names of structural divisions (Fig. 23).

Rice. 23. Responsibility distribution matrix diagram

Basic rules for constructing a matrix of responsibility distribution:

distribution of rights and responsibilities between employees of various departments.

Network modeling. The main tools for network modeling are network matrices (Fig. 24), where the network diagram is combined with a calendar-scale time grid.

– – –

The network matrix is a table where the subjects are a list of officials, structural units performing certain work, and the predicate depicts the stages and operations of the decision implementation process that occurs over time. The main elements of the network matrix are work, event, path and list of officials.

5.2. Methods for organizing the implementation of decisions

Main management actions Organizations for the implementation of decisions are personal instructions during the implementation of the decision, providing assistance to executors in case of difficulties, conducting instructive and methodological activities with executors.

Methods for organizing the implementation of decisions include methods for compiling an information table for the implementation of decisions - ITRR (Fig. 25) and methods of influence and motivation. Management decisions are based on information, and the carriers of management information are documents. Therefore, formalizing the process of implementing management decisions requires a clear definition of the result of each operation in the form of resulting documents and their consumers.

Rice. 25. Information table for implementing the solution

The decision implementation information table reflects the interaction of tasks in the decision-making process, ensuring a clear separation job responsibilities and responsibility (matrix of distribution of responsibility), types and forms of documents that are the results of solving certain problems, time characteristics - deadlines for completing certain works (network matrix). On the basis of ITRR, coordination and regulation of the implementation of the decision is carried out.

The decision implementation information table performs the function of information support for the process of implementing management decisions, because contains the composition of the required information, sources of obtaining information, methods of collecting information, methods of accumulating information, methods of processing information, methods of verifying accuracy, presentation forms (document), channels for transmitting information and diagrams electronic document management on the problem being solved within the organization and with external partners.

Methods of influence and motivation reflect the method of issuing orders (orally, in writing, in the form of orders) and methods of stimulating decision makers.

5.3. Methods for monitoring the implementation of decisions

The main management procedures performed at this stage of implementation of management decisions are as follows: monitoring compliance with the main characteristics of the implemented solution, monitoring compliance with implementation deadlines, monitoring the state of the problem situation, identifying the causes of deviations during the implementation of management decisions, adjusting (if necessary) the program implementation of the solution.

The implementation of management decisions consists of the implementation of the chosen alternative and the organization of control to determine the success of the implementation of the management decision.

Control includes: determining the results of implementing a management decision; comparison of actual results and planned ones (performance criteria - indicators of success); analysis of comparison results (deviations) and making corrective decisions if necessary.

Monitoring the implementation of decisions involves the creation of a control mechanism that should detect changes in the external and internal environment of the organization, where problems arise, and the need for additional solutions to achieve the goals of the system. The control mechanism should consist of 2 parts: control of changes in the external (system input) and internal (in the organization and outputs of the system) environment.

The main types of control over the implementation of management decisions are: administrative, technological, audit and audit.

Administrative control is verification and constant monitoring of the processes of implementation of management decisions: timing, volume, quality of their implementation.

Technological control consists of checking and constant monitoring of the technologies used in the implementation of management decisions.

An audit is a documentary verification of the results of the implementation of management decisions.

An audit is a documentary verification of the results of the implementation of management decisions, establishing the level of their compliance with certain criteria, norms and standards.

Methods for monitoring the implementation of management decisions are divided into control based on intermediate and final results and control based on deadlines (operations in ITRR).

When organizing control based on results (system outputs), the main advantage is the assessment of the achieved results and comparison of them with the target (planned) results, assessment of the factors that contributed to or hindered their achievement.

Time control is carried out, as indicated above when describing the ITRR technology (information tables for the implementation of decisions), as follows: the actual deadlines are compared with the planned ones and a deviation is identified. If these activities are on the critical path, then the decision maker needs to make an additional decision, since the activities on the critical path do not have a reserve for maneuver, as a result of which the final deadline for completing the decision may change.

Review questions

1. Purpose of planning methods for the implementation of management decisions.

2. Rules for constructing a matrix of responsibility distribution.

3. The essence of network modeling.

4. Methods for constructing network matrices.

5. Methods for organizing the implementation of decisions.

6. What is a decision implementation information table?

7. Purpose and methods of monitoring the implementation of decisions.

8. Types of control over the implementation of decisions.

9. Methods for monitoring the implementation of decisions.

Chapter 6. METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

After studying Chapter 6, the bachelor should:

the essence of the concepts “efficiency”, “economy”, “effectiveness”;

types of effectiveness of management decisions;

factors influencing the effectiveness of management decisions;

determine the results of implementing management decisions;

determine the costs of making and implementing management decisions;

determine and measure the effectiveness of management decisions;

analyze cost effectiveness;

methods for assessing the economic efficiency of making and implementing management decisions (traditional approach);

methods for assessing the economic efficiency of making and implementing management decisions based on the concept of value-based management (VBM concept).

6.1. The effectiveness of management decisions and its components

Effect (lat. effectus - execution, action) is a result, a consequence of any causes or actions. The effect of a management system in the general case is the total expected value of the annual growth of the organization's welfare, which is achieved through the efforts of its managers.

Management effectiveness is the cooperation of people in a consistent movement towards a common goal, the value of which exceeds the expenditure of resources, energy or effort. Goals were previously defined as states of affairs that the organization would like to achieve in the future.

“Efficiency” is not characteristic of all interactions, but only of targeted ones; That's why this category is of a managerial nature and reflects, first of all, the degree of achievement of the set goals. Unlike the effect, efficiency is always a certain ratio (of the result with the goals or the result with the costs of obtaining it), i.e. relative value. Management effectiveness in foreign literature is usually expressed by two key terms: Effectiveness and Efficiency. Effectiveness refers to the degree to which an organization's goals, strategic or operational, are achieved; success of activities, relationships with the external environment, etc. Efficiency is understood as economy, which is an internal parameter of the functioning of the organization. For example, the relationship between the volume of output and the resources required for this output. The lower the resource consumption per unit of output, the more economical the organization.

The target aspect of efficiency is very difficult to separate from economy, because the formation of two aspects of management effectiveness is equally determined in organizations by the following circumstances: the quality of goal setting; the adequacy of the adopted strategies to the goals set;

level of staff motivation to achieve goals; efficiency of the resources used; processes of interaction between personnel on different levels hierarchy; creativity and competencies of top managers, their ability to learn and manage knowledge, etc.

Thus, the main goal of effective management is to ensure the formation and functioning of such a state of the managed system (organization), which, to the maximum extent possible, meets the requirements of the organization’s external environment and the most efficient use of the resources and capabilities of the organization’s internal environment.

Management decisions as a result of the management activities of managers can be assessed by simple and complex indicators. The first includes results, time, and resource costs. Complex indicators are built for a more detailed assessment, these include efficiency, intensity, productivity.

The results of management decisions include: decision quality, timeliness, degree of compliance with goals, criteria as indicators of success, customer requirements, as well as stability, accuracy, internal consistency (coherence), possibility of development, degree of improvement of the decision-making procedure, etc.

The costs of management decisions include: information costs, time costs, technical costs, labor resources, and other costs.

Efficiency represents the comparison of resources (costs) to achieve results. The main factors for the effectiveness of decisions are three groups of factors: the use of resources, the time factor and the focus of management.

The first factor characterizes the structure, quality of resources, their economy in management processes and the possibility of replenishment and accumulation.

The second factor reflects the timeliness of decisions, time savings, the use of new technologies and the potential of personnel capable of solving problems quickly and professionally.

The third factor reflects the reality and significance of the goal, in accordance with which the result of the manager’s activities, his strategy, and taking into account market processes of economic development are considered. The goals and needs of the management system determine: the solution’s focus on the user, the visibility of the solution for the user, the possibility of repeated reuse.

Intensity is a comparison of effort and time, and productivity is a comparison of result and time.

The effectiveness of an organization is its property associated with the organization’s ability, within the framework of a normative system of social values, to formulate and achieve goals in accordance with the requirements in the form of results correlated with costs, through the use of appropriate means and taking into account the factors-conditions of its functioning.

Comparing the actual impact of an implemented decision with the expected one suggests the effectiveness or efficiency of the decision. The need for such a comparison is determined by the fact that assessing the effectiveness of a given solution is one of the methods for determining the degree of stability of the internal and external environment when developing a solution, manifested as a response of the environment to its changes when developing a solution. This allows you not only to verify the implementation of the decision, but also in the event of significant discrepancies between the actual and expected returns, take the necessary actions to adjust and clarify the decision process.

When choosing alternatives, it is necessary to ensure that the final formulation of the decision reflects the mechanism for measuring its effectiveness.

If it is impossible to define and measure the effectiveness of a solution, it is recommended to avoid approving it, because in this case, its variables, apparently, were incorrectly defined in the process of analyzing the problem. A decision is effective if it helps you get closer to your goal. In the case of multi-purpose activities, a solution can be considered effective in which a positive result is achieved and it prevails over some secondary goals.

Thus, the effectiveness of a management decision is the resource efficiency obtained as a result of the preparation or implementation of a management decision in an organization. The resources can be finance, materials, personnel health, labor organization, etc. There are organizational, economic, psychological, legal, ethical, technological and social efficiency of management decisions.

Organizational effectiveness of a management decision is understood as the fact of achieving organizational goals through fewer employees or less time. Organizational goals are related to the implementation of the following human needs: the need for organization of life and security, management, stability, order. Organizational effectiveness and the quality of management decisions are inextricably linked.

The economic efficiency of a management decision is the ratio of the cost of the surplus product obtained through the implementation of a specific management decision and the costs of its preparation and implementation.

Social efficiency of a management decision is the fact of achieving social goals for a larger number of people and society in a shorter time, with fewer employees, and at lower financial costs.

Social goals realize the following human needs: needs for information, knowledge, creative work, self-expression, communication, and recreation.

Technological efficiency of a management decision is the fact of achieving certain results (industry, national or global technological level of production) planned in the business plan, due to a shorter time or lower financial costs.

The psychological effectiveness of a management decision is the fact of achieving psychological goals for more workers or population in a shorter time, with fewer workers or at lower financial costs. Psychological goals realize the following human needs: needs for love, family, free time.

The legal effectiveness of a management decision is the degree to which the legal goals of the organization and personnel are achieved in a shorter time, with fewer employees or at lower financial costs. Legal goals realize the following human needs: the need for security and order.

Environmental efficiency of a management decision is the fact of achieving the environmental goals of the organization and personnel in a shorter time, with fewer employees or at lower financial costs. Environmental goals realize the following human needs: the need for safety, health, the organization of sustainable development of life, physiological.

The ethical effectiveness of a management decision is the fact of achieving the moral goals of the organization and personnel in a shorter time, with fewer employees or at lower financial costs. Ethical goals realize the needs and interests of a person in observing moral standards of behavior by the people around him.

The political effectiveness of a management decision is the fact of achieving the political goals of the organization and personnel in a shorter time, with fewer employees or at lower financial costs. Political goals realize the following human needs: the need for faith, patriotism, self-display and self-expression of management.

In addition, the effectiveness of management decisions can be determined at the hierarchical levels of the organization by the number of personnel and organizations affected; in accordance with this, the effectiveness of management decisions is distinguished at the level of production and management of an organization, group of companies, industry, region, country.

6.2. Methods for assessing the economic efficiency of making and implementing management decisions (traditional approaches) There are several approaches to measuring the effectiveness of management decisions of an organization, these are traditional approaches, including the target, resource, approach of internal processes and modern approaches to measuring the effectiveness of management decisions based on the concept of value-oriented management (Value Based Management – VBM).

The goal approach to measuring management effectiveness is tied to output data, because is assessed by the extent to which the organization achieves its goals in terms of the desired output state. A goal-oriented approach to performance measurement is to identify an organization's goals and evaluate how well the organization achieves those goals. The goal approach measures the degree to which the organization is moving toward these goals.

This method allows you to use the market value of manufactured products instead of the market value of the SD.

Thus, when implementing two SD options, the relative economic efficiency for the first solution is determined:

P 2T P EE (1T) * 100% Z2T Z1T, where P1t is the profit received for the sale of goods under the 1st version of the SD; P2t – profit received for the sale of goods under the 2nd version of the UR; 31T – costs of production of goods with the 1st option of SD; 32T – costs of production of goods with the 2nd option of SD.

The goal approach is often used in business organizations because their output goals are usually measurable. Business firms typically measure their performance in terms of profitability, growth, market share, or return on investment.

Resource-based approach: effectiveness is determined by observing the beginning of the management process and assessing the organization's ability to effectively obtain the resources necessary for successful operations.

Thus, with the resource approach, the “input” of the organization’s management system is considered and assessed, because it is assumed that in order to be effective, an organization must be able to obtain and manage valuable resources. From the point of view of the resource approach, the effectiveness of an organization is defined as its ability, absolute or relative, to extract rare and valuable resources, successfully integrate them and manage them.

In a broad sense, performance indicators, according to the resource approach, include the following characteristics:

purchasing position - the ability of an organization to extract rare and valuable resources from the environment, including financial resources, raw materials, human resources, knowledge and technology;

the ability of those who make decisions in the organization to see and correctly interpret the properties of the environment;

the ability of managers to use tangible (eg, raw materials, people) and intangible (eg, knowledge, corporate culture) resources in the daily activities of the organization to achieve the best results;

the organization's ability to respond to changes in the environment.

The resource approach to determining EE based on immediate results of activity is based on assessing the direct effect of SD in achieving goals, implementing functions, methods, etc. The main parameters when assessing EE are standards for the use of resources (temporary, material, financial, etc.).

Ee is determined using the following formula:

– – –

where SEi is the standard for the use (waste) of a resource; REi – actual use (costs) of the resource.

When calculating Ee, it is necessary to determine the value of Eei for several resources (m) and then, based on the priority of resources (ni), find the average value of Ee:

– – –

The best alternative is considered to be the one that provides the least amount of resources.

A variation of the resource approach is the method of cost-benefit analysis, which is a more advanced type or variant of traditional marginal analysis. This method is based on a comparison of alternatives in cases where the optimal solution cannot be expressed in monetary units, as is the case in marginal analysis, which is actually a traditional type of cost-benefit analysis.

Cost-benefit analysis is a method of making choices among several alternatives to determine the preferred option in cases where the objectives are not as specific as those expressed in specific quantitative indicators such as sales, costs or profits.

The main features of cost-benefit analysis are to focus on the results of a program or system, compare the contribution of each alternative to the effectiveness in achieving the desired goal, and compare the cost of each of these alternatives based on its effectiveness.

The value of cost-benefit analysis is that it encourages the decision maker to consider various alternatives based on their effectiveness in relation to cost. This method has found wide application in making innovative decisions.

6.3. Methods for assessing the economic efficiency of making and implementing management decisions based on the concept of value-based management (VBM concept) In the activities of the company a necessary condition effective functioning is the balance of interests of all business participants (owners, managers, staff, contractors, clients, etc.). In accordance with this requirement, the modern approach to assessing the effectiveness of management decisions is called the stakeholder approach or it is also called the shareholder approach.

The stakeholder approach, sometimes also called the stakeholder approach, is based on the idea that each organization has many groups of people who have different interests in the results of its activities. In this approach to measuring and assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, the main performance indicators are the satisfaction of these stakeholder groups.

Assessing the effectiveness of management in the shareholder approach is implemented in the concept of VBM (Value Based Management) in the so-called concept of value-based management, which promotes an integrated approach to managing an organization, aimed at increasing the value of the company for owners (shareholders). The basic principle of value-based management is the qualitative improvement of strategic and operational decisions at all levels of the hierarchy by concentrating the efforts of all decision makers on key value factors.

With the growing understanding that performance is a complex, multi-dimensional concept that cannot be assessed one-sidedly, the shareholder approach is becoming increasingly popular.

Criteria and performance indicators for the VBM concept.

Efficiency criteria are a set of characteristics on the basis of which the level and quality of management and its compliance with the needs and interests of society are assessed. Efficiency indicators reflect the quantitative characteristics of the development of managed processes. For example, efficiency criteria include: profit, costs, profitability, etc., and efficiency indicators indicate their quantitative characteristics.

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