The President promised to announce his new government formula after the inauguration. Everyone knows how much Vladimir Putin prone to unexpected decisions. Despite the fact that each of his improvisations is well prepared. “You'll like it,” he says in response to attempts to predict his personnel choices. And yet, it was not for nothing that he used the expression “new government” several times in his March message. So how new can it get?

TASS/Dmitry Astakhov

Hardly anyone doubts that he will retain the post of prime minister Dmitry Medvedev. Moreover, he retains the post of leader of the party of the absolute parliamentary majority. But even if someone else sits in this chair in the White House (from those candidates who were named in vain, or someone sensational), nothing much will change. Because any prime minister under a strong Putin, and he has now become even stronger, will be a purely technical prime minister.

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Talk about a speedy send-off for the Deputy Prime Minister was in vain Dvorkovich, who was recently subjected to harsh presidential criticism along with his ward minister Sokolov. There is no point in moving a politician who is now responsible for hosting the World Cup.

Global Look Press/prav.tatarstan.ru/Mikhail Frolov

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Rogozin (right)

His colleagues have no less solid functional positions - Trutneva And Kozak. There were many predictions regarding the fate of the “toxic” Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. Here, however, the problem is of a different kind. It is unlikely that there will be many who want to shoulder the burden of the once most prestigious space industry, which is in a permanent crisis, about which the curator can only repent and throw up his hands. If there is such a candidate, then a replacement will happen.

website/Sergey Bulkin

It is unlikely that there are bright prospects for two more “vices” - a person similar to the head of the government apparatus Sergei Prikhodko, and the main athlete Vitaly Mutko The first turned out to be involved in an unpleasant scandal and accused of open corruption and conflict of interest, the other was deprived of its main “float” - the World Cup, so as not to further irritate our Western opponents. And after reformatting the cabinet of ministers, you can part with them quietly and honorably.

AGN "Moscow"/Andrey Nikerichev

The Minister of Culture is persistently classified as “toxic” ministers, that is, causing rejection in some intellectual circles Medinsky. However, it is unlikely that there is now a figure who could satisfy the claims of all groups of rival intellectuals. Talks that this post may be promoted Vladimir Tolstoy, now an adviser to the president, and a former literary contributor to the Student Meridian magazine and director of the Yasnaya Polyana complex nominated by the family clan, may have some basis. But it is difficult to imagine that such a person is capable of reconciling everyone. Unless there will be more fanatical Spartak fans in the government.

flickr.com/Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia

Oddly enough, the fate of one of the promoted ministers suddenly found itself in limbo - Sergei Lavrov. A strange “cocaine precedent” suddenly retook everything political maps. The return from Brussels is considered a symptom of the weakening of the popular minister just yesterday. Grushko. The new deputy led the open opposition to Lavrov in the early 1990s. In an open letter, a group of Foreign Ministry officials accused those close to him of corruption in the economic sphere. Then son former first KGB Deputy Chairman Grushko was urgently escorted to NATO headquarters in the suburbs of Brussels. And now he returns at such a crisis moment for the central apparatus. Everything looks intriguing. Variations are possible.

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Another super minister has a much stronger position - Sergei Shoigu. However, he does not have the same PR; problems in Syria are multiplying. And the text of the message showed that in military sphere The president has the main say. It’s easier with some ordinary ministers. It is unlikely that Minister Sokolov will retain his post, who is criticized by the president, who announced to him that he is not fully qualified for his official duties, and openly blames the same Trutnev for the failure of the reconstruction of airports in the Far East. The Minister for Open Government has also proven his uselessness Mikhail Abyzov. Because no virtual Open Government has ever emerged. The Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources clearly did not win laurels either Donskoy.

It's clear that fine tuning government will take place. And this is the main post-election intrigue. Moreover, preference will be given to classical technocrats. And not necessarily young. Another thing is that most of the key ministers are proteges of powerful and influential industrial and financial groups. And this input will have to be taken into account. True, compared to the history of six years ago, a successful oligarch like Mikhail Prokhorov, who then converted his relative success into the appointment of several people close to him to the government, in particular the Deputy Prime Minister Golodets.

GGlobal Look Press/Komsomolskaya Pravda

Now Prokhorov is rarely remembered, and his protégés are slightly hung up. But there are already enough influential people who want to promote their trusted people to the cabinet.

Olga Golodets will replace Mutko as Deputy Prime Minister for Sports. In addition, in the future government she will deal with culture.
Previously, Golodets oversaw the social block, healthcare, demography, employment, education, science, culture, tourism and many other areas in the government. She is remembered by Russians as one of the few top-echelon politicians who openly criticized the so-called “Dima Yakovlev Law,” which prohibits the adoption of Russian children by families from the United States. Golodets stated, in particular, that this law contradicts the Family Code and the International Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Photo: Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant

Among the main problems of Russia, Golodets named low pensions, which, in her opinion, should be raised to 25 thousand rubles per month, and “unique” poverty as the main obstacle to economic growth.

Now she will have to cope with holding the 2018 World Cup in difficult conditions from a political point of view, and also somehow rehabilitate Russian sports against the backdrop of doping scandals.

Healthcare: an auditor is coming to visit us

Dmitry Medvedev proposed appointing the head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, to the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Health Affairs. The country's chief auditor has extensive experience in this area - from 2007 to 2012, Golikova was Russia's Minister of Health in the government of Vladimir Putin. It is distinguished, firstly, by its activity, and secondly, by its special status.

Golikova is a regular speaker at the most heated discussions of Russian economic forums, she is one of the most quoted representatives of Russian authorities and the main visionary of all the gigantic expenses of the Russian state.

Under Golikova, the supervisory agency turned into an isolated force - devastating reports often became the reason for resignations and criminal cases. Probably the loudest report was devoted to the construction of the Vostochny cosmodrome. The auditors concluded that the project estimate was overestimated by 13 billion rubles. The control body made it possible to identify patterns of misuse budget funds, as well as prevent further overestimation of costs.

Golikova’s replacement will have to try hard to at least maintain the achieved level, especially in the context of the trend towards the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects.

Golikova herself will have to remember her past experience and try to prevent scandals, as happened with drugs, in particular with Arbidol. Although Golikova’s involvement in lobbying for the company’s drugs could not be proven.

Kozak will get more work

Dmitry Kozak will remain in the post of Deputy Prime Minister, but some of the new powers that previously partially belonged to his colleague will be transferred to him. If earlier Kozak was responsible for regional development, infrastructure and housing and communal services in the constituent entities of Russia, now energy and industry are assigned to him.

Kozak does not have much experience in these areas; in October 2018, the Deputy Prime Minister will have been in his position for 10 years, but before that he was in charge of regional development. His relationship with the relevant ministers: the head and the head, is also not obvious, since Kozak is considered one of the most closed persons of the Russian Cabinet.

Kaluga head

Even more mysterious for the average person is the person of the Deputy Prime Minister. Akimov will largely replace Arkady Dvorkovich; transport, communications and the digital economy will be under his jurisdiction. For Dvorkovich himself, who oversaw energy and transport, the loss of his position came as a big surprise; he learned about his dismissal from his post only on the day of Vladimir Putin’s inauguration.

Maxim Akimov has been working in the government since 2012, when he received the post of deputy head of the government apparatus. In 2013, Akimov was destined for the post of minister economic development for a replacement, but got the post. After the arrest of the minister, Akimov again applied for the post of head of the Ministry of Economic Development, but in the end the chair was relinquished.

Before the government, Akimov worked in the administration of Kaluga and as deputy governor of the Kaluga region. Great experience Akimov does not have work in the industries that he got.

Deputy Prime Minister of the GDR

Previously, this place in the government was occupied by Dmitry Rogozin. It seems that he is not welcome in the new government. This may be due to Russia's numerous failures in the space industry. On April 27, 2016, Rogozin was reprimanded by Vladimir Putin due to problems with the Soyuz 2.1a launch vehicle, the launch of which had to be postponed. However, the Deputy Prime Minister’s troubles did not end there: on December 1 of the same year, the Progress MS-04 cargo ship crashed; on November 28, 2017, the Soyuz.2.1b launch vehicle fell into the ocean, which was supposed to launch 19 satellites.

The fate of five

In addition to Rogozin, at the time of writing this material, five more deputy chairmen of the previous government were not included in Medvedev’s list of candidates.

The fate of the first deputy chairman is unclear. He supervised economic policy. Shuvalov was dismissed many times, but he himself was very philosophical about his fate. “I want to work where the president says. I’m happy with any job the president gives,” the First Deputy Prime Minister responded to this.

Medvedev did not mention Arkady Dvorkovich, who oversaw the fuel and energy complex. President Vladimir Putin subjected him to serious criticism in 2017 for the fact that, according to the head of state, he paid insufficient attention to the transport industry. Then the VIM-Avia airline was unable to pay its fuel suppliers and airports, which led to numerous flight cancellations and delays.

“I announce to you that you are not fully qualified for your duties. If you cope with this situation quickly and effectively, then Dmitry Anatolyevich and I will think about what to do with this incomplete official compliance; if you can’t cope, then we will also think about it,” Putin said.

In addition, among the now ex-deputies - and, as well as, who combined the post of Deputy Prime Minister with the work of presidential envoy in the Far Eastern Federal District.

Finally, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who was tipped to become first deputy prime minister, deserves special mention. However, Medvedev did not find a place for him in the future team. that Putin is considering the possibility of returning Kudrin to the Cabinet of Ministers as Deputy Prime Minister. Sources reported plans to appoint a politician to some high post. On May 7, Kudrin himself, in a conversation with RIA Novosti, refused to comment on this information.

The government, headed by Dmitry Medvedev, will resign on May 7 immediately after the inauguration of President Vladimir Putin. Members of the Cabinet will continue to serve until the formation of a new government. The head of state will have two weeks to propose to the State Duma a candidate for a new prime minister. Will the current head of government be able to retain his post and who is most likely to leave the cabinet - in the material on the site.

New Prime Minister

Despite the fact that Vladimir Putin has not previously stated directly that Dmitry Medvedev will retain his post in the new government, most likely it will be the current prime minister who will head the cabinet. Dmitry Medvedev himself claimed that he was not going to leave and was ready to continue working. According to RIA Novosti, the State Duma is preparing for a meeting with Medvedev as Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.

RBC sources in the Kremlin and government also express the opinion that Dmitry Medvedev's chances of remaining as Prime Minister are high. “Medvedev is probably the only person Putin trusts, because he did not let him down in 2011. Medvedev is completely satisfied with the president as prime minister. But in reality, whether he will remain prime minister or not, only Putin and Medvedev themselves know,” a high-ranking federal official told the publication.

However, at the end of 2017 and at the beginning of 2018, information appeared that the head of the Rostec state corporation could head the new government. Sergey Chemezov. However, Chemezov himself denied these rumors. Answering questions from journalists about whether he had received an offer to take a post in the renewed government, the head of Rostec said: “God forbid!”

Bloomberg agency in November 2017, citing its sources, stated that the head of the Central Bank could become the new head of the Russian government Elvira Nabiullina, Mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin or the Minister of Industry Denis Manturov. Replacing Medvedev as prime minister with a stronger manager could “inhale new life into the country's choking economy."

According to political scientists, the new government will not be much renewed after the inauguration. At least half of the ministers will remain in their places.

Who is predicted to resign?

Political scientists and experts call the Minister of Transport one of the candidates for departure Maxim Sokolov.“With his baggage of reprimands and shortcomings,” he becomes an unsuitable candidate, a high-ranking government source told Kommersant. However, the day before the inauguration, President Vladimir Putin lifted the disciplinary sanction against Maxim Sokolov, which was imposed on him in the fall after the bankruptcy of VIM-Avia. The reason for this decision is not explained.

Deputy Prime Minister may lose his post Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the military-industrial complex in the government. According to the Gazeta.RU source, the official “is clearly going overboard with controversial PR campaigns.” Earlier, information appeared in the media that Rogozin’s place in the government could be taken by the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov.

It was also discussed that the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade could become the new Deputy Prime Minister instead of Dmitry Rogozin Denis Manturov. In this case, Denis Manturov’s place in the Ministry of Industry and Trade has a chance to be taken by his deputy Viktor Evtukhov. And Rogozin, sources told RBC in the Ministry of Defense and the presidential administration, may be demoted - become governor or move “to a post related to international activities.” This is caused by numerous failures in the space industry that occurred in last years.

According to the publication, the Deputy Prime Minister may also lose his posts Sergey Prikhodko. After the scandal with Oleg Deripaska and Nastya Rybka, the official may be asked to retire.

The new government may not have a place for the Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Mutko, whose name was on the front pages in connection with the doping scandal, to the Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky, accused of plagiarism.

First Deputy Prime Minister is also at risk of leaving the Cabinet Igor Shuvalov. His place, a source told RBC, could be taken by the former Minister of Economic Development, assistant to the President Andrey Belousov. According to the publication, in the first half of April, a meeting between Belousov and Putin took place, during which they discussed his possible transition to the government. The tasks for Belousov’s work in the Cabinet of Ministers were the supervision of “economic issues in the broadest sense of the word.”

Deputy Prime Minister can leave the Cabinet of Ministers Olga Golodets, which now oversees the social block. Her place may be taken by the head of the Accounts Chamber Tatiana Golikova. The Minister of Education risks leaving the government together with Golodets Olga Vasilyeva, which, according to a RBC source, “does not know how to work in a team and has quarreled with everyone.” Instead of Vasilyeva, the new government may include the head of the Talent and Success educational foundation. Elena Shmeleva.

With a high degree of probability, the Minister of Communications and Mass Media will not retain his post Nikolay Nikiforov. At the same time, experts say that Nikiforov may leave for the post of Deputy Prime Minister with an eye to overseeing the digital economy. The government has no complaints against the young minister.

Business representatives - a top manager of an oil and gas company and a manager of an oil company - announced the possible resignation of the Minister of Nature Sergei Donskoy.

Another candidate for departure is the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Vladimir Puchkov. Allegedly, the issue of his departure from the government was decided in mid-April. The last straw was a fire in mall « Winter cherry» in Kemerovo. One of the candidates for the post of minister is Puchkov’s current deputy, Alexander Chupriyan.

Who will keep their post?

Among those who will retain his post in the new government is the 68-year-old Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During the 14 years that Lavrov headed the Foreign Ministry, he was repeatedly predicted to resign. However, Kommersant’s sources note that evidence of the impending radical changes No. “Given the current international situation, changing the Minister of Foreign Affairs would be illogical. Lavrov is the most experienced of all current foreign ministers. And then, the change of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may be perceived by someone as an admission by the country’s leadership of mistakes in the foreign policy arena,” the publication’s interlocutor said.

The current Minister of Internal Affairs will also remain in the government Vladimir Kolokoltsev. This is due, among other things, to the upcoming World Cup. In addition, the Ministry of Internal Affairs does not big problems, and assessments of the ministry’s work are at a positive level.

The head of the Ministry of Defense will retain his post Sergei Shoigu. Among those who will remain in the Cabinet is also the head of the Ministry of Health Veronica Skvortsova, minister Agriculture Alexandra Tkacheva, Minister of Energy Alexandra Novak. The fate of the Deputy Prime Minister is unknown Arkady Dvorkovich. He himself recently stated that deputy prime ministers in current government They are busy with the wrong things, and the fight against departmental disagreements takes government deputy chairmen up to 70–80% of their working time. “I think we just have to do different things. In the current coordinate system it would not be better; in a different coordinate system we could do other things and this would bring great benefit society,” Dvorkovich said.

The composition of the Cabinet will be announced on May 18. Based on media leaks, who is most likely to leave, who will stay, and whose fates are of most interest?

Dmitry Medvedev will announce the composition of the new government on May 18. There is almost no intrigue left. The day before the official announcement, TASS reported that the entire social bloc would retain their posts.

The Ministry of Education and Science was divided into two ministries. Olga Vasilyeva, according to the agency, will remain the Minister of Education and will be responsible for school and secondary specialized education. Who will become the Minister of Science is still a mystery.

Maxim Topilin, as before, is the Minister of Labor, Veronica Skvortsova is the Minister of Health. All this is the team of Olga Golodets, who will now oversee sports and culture. Tatyana Golikova will be the main one on the social block. I wonder how her relationship with the old ministers will develop - she and Golodets hold different views. By the way, Golikova more than once criticized the Ministry of Health under Skvortsova. Director of the Center for Political Science Research Financial University Pavel Salin does not see any particular problem:

Director of the Center for Political Science Research, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation“These are clearly technocratic ministers. That is why they did not create a large anti-rating for themselves. These are the ministers who will carry out the line that is outlined to them by their superior leadership. Therefore, they will most likely fit into the strategic line that Golikov will pursue to consolidate budgets. And if they try to pursue their line, then from a purely hardware point of view they will not be able to seriously resist Golikova.”

On the other hand, this is a layering effect when opposing figures are placed side by side. This, for example, helps curb the excessive business activity of top-echelon civil servants.

If we summarize everything that the media previously wrote, the picture is as follows: together with the social bloc, it seems that Denis Manturov, Sergei Shoigu, Sergei Lavrov and Vladimir Medinsky will retain their posts. Alexander Tkachev, Maxim Sokolov and the portfolioless Mikhail Abyzov will leave the cabinet.

Along with the government, changes are expected in the Kremlin. By all accounts, Anton Vaino and Sergei Kiriyenko will retain their posts. There is a lot of speculation on telegram channels about other changes in the presidential administration, but they are extremely poorly confirmed. Forecast of the director of the Institute of Applied Political Research Grigory Dobromelov:

Director of the Institute of Applied Political Research“It would be logical for those blocs that have now become stronger in the executive branch to become stronger in the presidential administration, so that, for example, he would have not an adviser, but an assistant on the digital economy, although Igor Shchegolev is in charge of this topic. It is unlikely that he will stop overseeing this topic. The theme of science may be strengthened, there will be an assistant not only in education, but also in science, especially since Fursenko is already at the age limit, perhaps he will leave.”

There is no clarity with the outgoing deputy prime ministers. Igor Shuvalov may return to business, perhaps to some state corporation. The publications about a high post at Moscow State University were denied by the rector of the university, Viktor Sadovnichy, but added that a high position awaits Igor Ivanovich.

Another intrigue is the fate of Dmitry Rogozin. There is an opinion that the position of presidential adviser awaits him. This is how a balance is maintained: a seemingly high position in the Kremlin, but without powers. There were leaks according to which he will head Roscosmos. But to entrust the fate of such a state corporation to a PR person...

The main intrigue was the appointment of Alexei Kudrin. He will head the Accounts Chamber, but will remain at the Center for Strategic Research, where new reforms were born. It remains to be seen which of the posts is more important, but in both cases he does not overshadow the prime minister. It seems that a new position has appeared called “Alexei Kudrin” - ideologist and controller.